Impact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: Estimates for Turkey and Greece using CCR model

The article analyses the effect of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility changes in Greece and Turkey. The empirical part of the study is based on annual time series data retrieved from the World Bank and National Statistical Offices of Turkey and Greece for 1991–2019. Canonica...

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Autor principal:	Goran Miladinov
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics 2021
Materias:	Economic theory. Demography HB1-3840
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/657b14a9aead428e8625323ddb5d3b16
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:657b14a9aead428e8625323ddb5d3b162021-11-04T04:30:43ZImpact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: Estimates for Turkey and Greece using CCR model10.3897/popecon.5.e691892658-3798https://doaj.org/article/657b14a9aead428e8625323ddb5d3b162021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/69189/download/pdf/https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/69189/download/xml/https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/69189/https://doaj.org/toc/2658-3798 The article analyses the effect of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility changes in Greece and Turkey. The empirical part of the study is based on annual time series data retrieved from the World Bank and National Statistical Offices of Turkey and Greece for 1991–2019. Canonical Cointegrating Regression model is applied for the two countries separately, allowing to quantify the effects of the determinants (crude marriage rate and unemployment rate by sex) on the variation of fertility rate. CCR models show these determinants to be the most significant factors of fertility dynamics in both countries. The results from Engle-Granger and the Phillips-Ouliaris tau (t-statistics) tests confirm the cointegration, i.e., long-term relationship between the variables only for Turkey’s CCR model. However, it was found that in Greece, female unemployment impacts fertility rate negatively and male unemployment has a positive effect on fertility rate; for Turkey modelling shows the opposite relationship. The results of the study suggest that economic uncertainties might be one of the factors contributing to fertility decline in these countries, long-term or in the coming years.Goran MiladinovMoscow State University, Faculty of EconomicsarticleEconomic theory. DemographyHB1-3840ENНаселение и экономика, Vol 5, Iss 3, Pp 76-89 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Economic theory. Demography HB1-3840
spellingShingle	Economic theory. Demography HB1-3840 Goran Miladinov Impact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: Estimates for Turkey and Greece using CCR model
description	The article analyses the effect of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility changes in Greece and Turkey. The empirical part of the study is based on annual time series data retrieved from the World Bank and National Statistical Offices of Turkey and Greece for 1991–2019. Canonical Cointegrating Regression model is applied for the two countries separately, allowing to quantify the effects of the determinants (crude marriage rate and unemployment rate by sex) on the variation of fertility rate. CCR models show these determinants to be the most significant factors of fertility dynamics in both countries. The results from Engle-Granger and the Phillips-Ouliaris tau (t-statistics) tests confirm the cointegration, i.e., long-term relationship between the variables only for Turkey’s CCR model. However, it was found that in Greece, female unemployment impacts fertility rate negatively and male unemployment has a positive effect on fertility rate; for Turkey modelling shows the opposite relationship. The results of the study suggest that economic uncertainties might be one of the factors contributing to fertility decline in these countries, long-term or in the coming years.
format	article
author	Goran Miladinov
author_facet	Goran Miladinov
author_sort	Goran Miladinov
title	Impact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: Estimates for Turkey and Greece using CCR model
title_short	Impact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: Estimates for Turkey and Greece using CCR model
title_full	Impact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: Estimates for Turkey and Greece using CCR model
title_fullStr	Impact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: Estimates for Turkey and Greece using CCR model
title_full_unstemmed	Impact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: Estimates for Turkey and Greece using CCR model
title_sort	impact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: estimates for turkey and greece using ccr model
publisher	Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/657b14a9aead428e8625323ddb5d3b16
work_keys_str_mv	AT goranmiladinov impactofunemploymentbysexandmarriagerateonfertilitydeclineestimatesforturkeyandgreeceusingccrmodel
_version_	1718445276463628288

Impact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: Estimates for Turkey and Greece using CCR model

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