A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden

Solid estimates describing the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infections are still lacking due to under-ascertainment of asymptomatic and mild-disease cases. In this work, we quantify age-specific probabilities of transitions between stages defining the natural history of SARS-CoV-2 infection from 19...

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Autores principales:	Agnese Zardini, Margherita Galli, Marcello Tirani, Danilo Cereda, Mattia Manica, Filippo Trentini, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valentina Marziano, Raffaella Piccarreta, Alessia Melegaro, Marco Ajelli, Piero Poletti, Stefano Merler
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	SARS-CoV-2 Risk outcomes Disease burden Epidemiological parameters Contact tracing data Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/65878cd7254449eea159c66fd68679b1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:65878cd7254449eea159c66fd68679b12021-11-24T04:27:35ZA quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden1755-436510.1016/j.epidem.2021.100530https://doaj.org/article/65878cd7254449eea159c66fd68679b12021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000748https://doaj.org/toc/1755-4365Solid estimates describing the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infections are still lacking due to under-ascertainment of asymptomatic and mild-disease cases. In this work, we quantify age-specific probabilities of transitions between stages defining the natural history of SARS-CoV-2 infection from 1965 SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals identified in Italy between March and April 2020 among contacts of confirmed cases. Infected contacts of cases were confirmed via RT-PCR tests as part of contact tracing activities or retrospectively via IgG serological tests and followed-up for symptoms and clinical outcomes. In addition, we provide estimates of time intervals between key events defining the clinical progression of cases as obtained from a larger sample, consisting of 95,371 infections ascertained between February and July 2020. We found that being older than 60 years of age was associated with a 39.9% (95%CI: 36.2–43.6%) likelihood of developing respiratory symptoms or fever ≥ 37.5 °C after SARS-CoV-2 infection; the 22.3% (95%CI: 19.3–25.6%) of the infections in this age group required hospital care and the 1% (95%CI: 0.4–2.1%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). The corresponding proportions in individuals younger than 60 years were estimated at 27.9% (95%CI: 25.4–30.4%), 8.8% (95%CI: 7.3–10.5%) and 0.4% (95%CI: 0.1–0.9%), respectively. The infection fatality ratio (IFR) ranged from 0.2% (95%CI: 0.0–0.6%) in individuals younger than 60 years to 12.3% (95%CI: 6.9–19.7%) for those aged 80 years or more; the case fatality ratio (CFR) in these two age classes was 0.6% (95%CI: 0.1–2%) and 19.2% (95%CI: 10.9–30.1%), respectively. The median length of stay in hospital was 10 (IQR: 3–21) days; the length of stay in ICU was 11 (IQR: 6–19) days. The obtained estimates provide insights into the epidemiology of COVID-19 and could be instrumental to refine mathematical modeling work supporting public health decisions.Agnese ZardiniMargherita GalliMarcello TiraniDanilo CeredaMattia ManicaFilippo TrentiniGiorgio GuzzettaValentina MarzianoRaffaella PiccarretaAlessia MelegaroMarco AjelliPiero PolettiStefano MerlerElsevierarticleSARS-CoV-2Risk outcomesDisease burdenEpidemiological parametersContact tracing dataInfectious and parasitic diseasesRC109-216ENEpidemics, Vol 37, Iss , Pp 100530- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	SARS-CoV-2 Risk outcomes Disease burden Epidemiological parameters Contact tracing data Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
spellingShingle	SARS-CoV-2 Risk outcomes Disease burden Epidemiological parameters Contact tracing data Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Agnese Zardini Margherita Galli Marcello Tirani Danilo Cereda Mattia Manica Filippo Trentini Giorgio Guzzetta Valentina Marziano Raffaella Piccarreta Alessia Melegaro Marco Ajelli Piero Poletti Stefano Merler A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden
description	Solid estimates describing the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infections are still lacking due to under-ascertainment of asymptomatic and mild-disease cases. In this work, we quantify age-specific probabilities of transitions between stages defining the natural history of SARS-CoV-2 infection from 1965 SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals identified in Italy between March and April 2020 among contacts of confirmed cases. Infected contacts of cases were confirmed via RT-PCR tests as part of contact tracing activities or retrospectively via IgG serological tests and followed-up for symptoms and clinical outcomes. In addition, we provide estimates of time intervals between key events defining the clinical progression of cases as obtained from a larger sample, consisting of 95,371 infections ascertained between February and July 2020. We found that being older than 60 years of age was associated with a 39.9% (95%CI: 36.2–43.6%) likelihood of developing respiratory symptoms or fever ≥ 37.5 °C after SARS-CoV-2 infection; the 22.3% (95%CI: 19.3–25.6%) of the infections in this age group required hospital care and the 1% (95%CI: 0.4–2.1%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). The corresponding proportions in individuals younger than 60 years were estimated at 27.9% (95%CI: 25.4–30.4%), 8.8% (95%CI: 7.3–10.5%) and 0.4% (95%CI: 0.1–0.9%), respectively. The infection fatality ratio (IFR) ranged from 0.2% (95%CI: 0.0–0.6%) in individuals younger than 60 years to 12.3% (95%CI: 6.9–19.7%) for those aged 80 years or more; the case fatality ratio (CFR) in these two age classes was 0.6% (95%CI: 0.1–2%) and 19.2% (95%CI: 10.9–30.1%), respectively. The median length of stay in hospital was 10 (IQR: 3–21) days; the length of stay in ICU was 11 (IQR: 6–19) days. The obtained estimates provide insights into the epidemiology of COVID-19 and could be instrumental to refine mathematical modeling work supporting public health decisions.
format	article
author	Agnese Zardini Margherita Galli Marcello Tirani Danilo Cereda Mattia Manica Filippo Trentini Giorgio Guzzetta Valentina Marziano Raffaella Piccarreta Alessia Melegaro Marco Ajelli Piero Poletti Stefano Merler
author_facet	Agnese Zardini Margherita Galli Marcello Tirani Danilo Cereda Mattia Manica Filippo Trentini Giorgio Guzzetta Valentina Marziano Raffaella Piccarreta Alessia Melegaro Marco Ajelli Piero Poletti Stefano Merler
author_sort	Agnese Zardini
title	A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden
title_short	A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden
title_full	A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden
title_fullStr	A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden
title_full_unstemmed	A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden
title_sort	quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate covid-19 burden
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/65878cd7254449eea159c66fd68679b1
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A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden

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