Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks

Abstract Recent studies have shown that hydro-climatic extremes have increased significantly in number and intensity in the last decades. In the Northern Hemisphere such events were often associated with long lasting persistent weather patterns. In 2018, hot and dry conditions prevailed for several...

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Autores principales:	Peter Hoffmann, Jascha Lehmann, Bijan H. Fallah, Fred F. Hattermann
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/65e890d7eaa049acb7fda3801d8aa66e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:65e890d7eaa049acb7fda3801d8aa66e2021-11-28T12:21:08ZAtmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks10.1038/s41598-021-01808-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/65e890d7eaa049acb7fda3801d8aa66e2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01808-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Recent studies have shown that hydro-climatic extremes have increased significantly in number and intensity in the last decades. In the Northern Hemisphere such events were often associated with long lasting persistent weather patterns. In 2018, hot and dry conditions prevailed for several months over Central Europe leading to record-breaking temperatures and severe harvest losses. The underlying circulation processes are still not fully understood and there is a need for improved methodologies to detect and quantify persistent weather conditions. Here, we propose a new method to detect, compare and quantify persistence through atmosphere similarity patterns by applying established image recognition methods to day to day atmospheric fields. We find that persistent weather patterns have increased in number and intensity over the last decades in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude summer, link this to hydro-climatic risks and evaluate the extreme summers of 2010 (Russian heat wave) and of 2018 (European drought). We further evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce long-term trend patterns of weather persistence and the result is a notable discrepancy to observed developments.Peter HoffmannJascha LehmannBijan H. FallahFred F. HattermannNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Peter Hoffmann Jascha Lehmann Bijan H. Fallah Fred F. Hattermann Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks
description	Abstract Recent studies have shown that hydro-climatic extremes have increased significantly in number and intensity in the last decades. In the Northern Hemisphere such events were often associated with long lasting persistent weather patterns. In 2018, hot and dry conditions prevailed for several months over Central Europe leading to record-breaking temperatures and severe harvest losses. The underlying circulation processes are still not fully understood and there is a need for improved methodologies to detect and quantify persistent weather conditions. Here, we propose a new method to detect, compare and quantify persistence through atmosphere similarity patterns by applying established image recognition methods to day to day atmospheric fields. We find that persistent weather patterns have increased in number and intensity over the last decades in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude summer, link this to hydro-climatic risks and evaluate the extreme summers of 2010 (Russian heat wave) and of 2018 (European drought). We further evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce long-term trend patterns of weather persistence and the result is a notable discrepancy to observed developments.
format	article
author	Peter Hoffmann Jascha Lehmann Bijan H. Fallah Fred F. Hattermann
author_facet	Peter Hoffmann Jascha Lehmann Bijan H. Fallah Fred F. Hattermann
author_sort	Peter Hoffmann
title	Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks
title_short	Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks
title_full	Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks
title_fullStr	Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks
title_full_unstemmed	Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks
title_sort	atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/65e890d7eaa049acb7fda3801d8aa66e
work_keys_str_mv	AT peterhoffmann atmospheresimilaritypatternsinborealsummershowanincreaseofpersistentweatherconditionsconnectedtohydroclimaticrisks AT jaschalehmann atmospheresimilaritypatternsinborealsummershowanincreaseofpersistentweatherconditionsconnectedtohydroclimaticrisks AT bijanhfallah atmospheresimilaritypatternsinborealsummershowanincreaseofpersistentweatherconditionsconnectedtohydroclimaticrisks AT fredfhattermann atmospheresimilaritypatternsinborealsummershowanincreaseofpersistentweatherconditionsconnectedtohydroclimaticrisks
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Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks

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