Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) and Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR)-Based Nomogram Model to Predict Tumor Recurrence of AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Shuqi Mao,1 Xi Yu,1 Yuying Shan,1 Rui Fan,2 Shengdong Wu,1 Caide Lu1 1Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, 315040, People’s Republic of China; 2Medical Quality Management Office, Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospi...

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Autores principales:	Mao S, Yu X, Shan Y, Fan R, Wu S, Lu C
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Dove Medical Press 2021
Materias:	hcc mlr albi grade afp-negative recurrence-free survival nomogram Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens RC254-282
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6608068aead446c4895d2ff1e3f2840c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6608068aead446c4895d2ff1e3f2840c2021-11-11T18:22:26ZAlbumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) and Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR)-Based Nomogram Model to Predict Tumor Recurrence of AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma2253-5969https://doaj.org/article/6608068aead446c4895d2ff1e3f2840c2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.dovepress.com/albumin-bilirubin-albi-and-monocyte-to-lymphocyte-ratio-mlr-based-nomo-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-JHChttps://doaj.org/toc/2253-5969Shuqi Mao,1 Xi Yu,1 Yuying Shan,1 Rui Fan,2 Shengdong Wu,1 Caide Lu1 1Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, 315040, People’s Republic of China; 2Medical Quality Management Office, Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, 315040, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Caide Lu; Shengdong WuDepartment of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, 315040, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86 13957800900; +86 13567886669Email lucaide@nbu.edu.cn; 13567886669@139.comPurpose: In this study, we aimed to develop a novel liver function and inflammatory markers-based nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) for AFP-negative (< 20 ng/mL) HCC patients after curative resection.Patients and Methods: A total of 166 pathologically confirmed AFP-negative HCC patients were included at the Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital. A LASSO regression analysis was used for data dimensionality reduction and element selection. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors relevant to RFS. Finally, clinical nomogram prediction model for RFS of HCC was established. Nomogram performance was assessed via internal validation and calibration curve statistics. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) curve were used to validate the performance and clinical utility of the nomogram.Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that ALBI grade (hazard ratio, [HR] = 2.624, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.391– 4.949, P = 0.003), INR (HR = 2.605, 95% CI: 1.061– 6.396, P = 0.037), MLR (HR = 1.769, 95% CI: 1.073– 2.915, P = 0.025) and MVI (HR = 4.726, 95% CI: 2.365– 9.444, P < 0.001) were independent prognostic factors of RFS. Nomogram with independent factors was established and achieved a better concordance index of 0.753 (95% CI: 0.672– 0.834) for predicting RFS. The ROC found that the area under curve (AUC) was consistent with the C-index and the sensitivity was 85.4%. The risk score calculated by nomogram could divide AFP-negative HCC patients into high-, moderate- and low-risk groups (P < 0.05). DCA analysis revealed that the nomogram could augment net benefits and exhibited a wider range of threshold probabilities by the risk stratification than the AJCC T and BCLC stage in the prediction of AFP-negative HCC recurrence.Conclusion: The ALBI grade- and MLR-based nomogram prognostic model for RFS showed high predictive accuracy in AFP-negative HCC patients after surgical resection.Keywords: HCC, MLR, ALBI grade, AFP-negative, recurrence-free survival, nomogramMao SYu XShan YFan RWu SLu CDove Medical Pressarticlehccmlralbi gradeafp-negativerecurrence-free survivalnomogramNeoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogensRC254-282ENJournal of Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Vol Volume 8, Pp 1355-1365 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	hcc mlr albi grade afp-negative recurrence-free survival nomogram Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens RC254-282
spellingShingle	hcc mlr albi grade afp-negative recurrence-free survival nomogram Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens RC254-282 Mao S Yu X Shan Y Fan R Wu S Lu C Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) and Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR)-Based Nomogram Model to Predict Tumor Recurrence of AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma
description	Shuqi Mao,1 Xi Yu,1 Yuying Shan,1 Rui Fan,2 Shengdong Wu,1 Caide Lu1 1Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, 315040, People’s Republic of China; 2Medical Quality Management Office, Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, 315040, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Caide Lu; Shengdong WuDepartment of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, 315040, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86 13957800900; +86 13567886669Email lucaide@nbu.edu.cn; 13567886669@139.comPurpose: In this study, we aimed to develop a novel liver function and inflammatory markers-based nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) for AFP-negative (< 20 ng/mL) HCC patients after curative resection.Patients and Methods: A total of 166 pathologically confirmed AFP-negative HCC patients were included at the Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital. A LASSO regression analysis was used for data dimensionality reduction and element selection. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors relevant to RFS. Finally, clinical nomogram prediction model for RFS of HCC was established. Nomogram performance was assessed via internal validation and calibration curve statistics. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) curve were used to validate the performance and clinical utility of the nomogram.Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that ALBI grade (hazard ratio, [HR] = 2.624, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.391– 4.949, P = 0.003), INR (HR = 2.605, 95% CI: 1.061– 6.396, P = 0.037), MLR (HR = 1.769, 95% CI: 1.073– 2.915, P = 0.025) and MVI (HR = 4.726, 95% CI: 2.365– 9.444, P < 0.001) were independent prognostic factors of RFS. Nomogram with independent factors was established and achieved a better concordance index of 0.753 (95% CI: 0.672– 0.834) for predicting RFS. The ROC found that the area under curve (AUC) was consistent with the C-index and the sensitivity was 85.4%. The risk score calculated by nomogram could divide AFP-negative HCC patients into high-, moderate- and low-risk groups (P < 0.05). DCA analysis revealed that the nomogram could augment net benefits and exhibited a wider range of threshold probabilities by the risk stratification than the AJCC T and BCLC stage in the prediction of AFP-negative HCC recurrence.Conclusion: The ALBI grade- and MLR-based nomogram prognostic model for RFS showed high predictive accuracy in AFP-negative HCC patients after surgical resection.Keywords: HCC, MLR, ALBI grade, AFP-negative, recurrence-free survival, nomogram
format	article
author	Mao S Yu X Shan Y Fan R Wu S Lu C
author_facet	Mao S Yu X Shan Y Fan R Wu S Lu C
author_sort	Mao S
title	Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) and Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR)-Based Nomogram Model to Predict Tumor Recurrence of AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma
title_short	Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) and Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR)-Based Nomogram Model to Predict Tumor Recurrence of AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma
title_full	Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) and Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR)-Based Nomogram Model to Predict Tumor Recurrence of AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma
title_fullStr	Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) and Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR)-Based Nomogram Model to Predict Tumor Recurrence of AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma
title_full_unstemmed	Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) and Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR)-Based Nomogram Model to Predict Tumor Recurrence of AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma
title_sort	albumin-bilirubin (albi) and monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (mlr)-based nomogram model to predict tumor recurrence of afp-negative hepatocellular carcinoma
publisher	Dove Medical Press
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6608068aead446c4895d2ff1e3f2840c
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Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) and Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR)-Based Nomogram Model to Predict Tumor Recurrence of AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma

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