SEIR Mathematical Model of Convalescent Plasma Transfusion to Reduce COVID-19 Disease Transmission

In some diseases, due to the restrictive availability of vaccines on the market (e.g., during the early emergence of a new disease that may cause a pandemic such as COVID-19), the use of plasma transfusion is among the available options for handling such a disease. In this study, we developed an SEI...

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Autores principales:	Hennie Husniah, Ruhanda Ruhanda, Asep K. Supriatna, Md. H. A. Biswas
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	SEIR ODE model COVID-19 transmission convalescent plasma transfusion (CPT) Mathematics QA1-939
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/662fe03fac63470a9363da3a07db45a3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:662fe03fac63470a9363da3a07db45a32021-11-25T18:16:36ZSEIR Mathematical Model of Convalescent Plasma Transfusion to Reduce COVID-19 Disease Transmission10.3390/math92228572227-7390https://doaj.org/article/662fe03fac63470a9363da3a07db45a32021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/22/2857https://doaj.org/toc/2227-7390In some diseases, due to the restrictive availability of vaccines on the market (e.g., during the early emergence of a new disease that may cause a pandemic such as COVID-19), the use of plasma transfusion is among the available options for handling such a disease. In this study, we developed an SEIR mathematical model of disease transmission dynamics, considering the use of convalescent plasma transfusion (CPT). In this model, we assumed that the effect of CPT increases patient survival or, equivalently, leads to a reduction in the length of stay during an infectious period. We attempted to answer the question of what the effects are of different rates of CPT applications in decreasing the number of infectives at the population level. Herein, we analyzed the model using standard procedures in mathematical epidemiology, i.e., finding the trivial and non-trivial equilibrium points of the system including their stability and their relation to basic and effective reproduction numbers. We showed that, in general, the effects of the application of CPT resulted in a lower peak of infection cases and other epidemiological measures. As a consequence, in the presence of CPT, lowering the height of an infective peak can be regarded as an increase in the number of remaining healthy individuals; thus, the use of CPT may decrease the burden of COVID-19 transmission.Hennie HusniahRuhanda RuhandaAsep K. SupriatnaMd. H. A. BiswasMDPI AGarticleSEIR ODE modelCOVID-19 transmissionconvalescent plasma transfusion (CPT)MathematicsQA1-939ENMathematics, Vol 9, Iss 2857, p 2857 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	SEIR ODE model COVID-19 transmission convalescent plasma transfusion (CPT) Mathematics QA1-939
spellingShingle	SEIR ODE model COVID-19 transmission convalescent plasma transfusion (CPT) Mathematics QA1-939 Hennie Husniah Ruhanda Ruhanda Asep K. Supriatna Md. H. A. Biswas SEIR Mathematical Model of Convalescent Plasma Transfusion to Reduce COVID-19 Disease Transmission
description	In some diseases, due to the restrictive availability of vaccines on the market (e.g., during the early emergence of a new disease that may cause a pandemic such as COVID-19), the use of plasma transfusion is among the available options for handling such a disease. In this study, we developed an SEIR mathematical model of disease transmission dynamics, considering the use of convalescent plasma transfusion (CPT). In this model, we assumed that the effect of CPT increases patient survival or, equivalently, leads to a reduction in the length of stay during an infectious period. We attempted to answer the question of what the effects are of different rates of CPT applications in decreasing the number of infectives at the population level. Herein, we analyzed the model using standard procedures in mathematical epidemiology, i.e., finding the trivial and non-trivial equilibrium points of the system including their stability and their relation to basic and effective reproduction numbers. We showed that, in general, the effects of the application of CPT resulted in a lower peak of infection cases and other epidemiological measures. As a consequence, in the presence of CPT, lowering the height of an infective peak can be regarded as an increase in the number of remaining healthy individuals; thus, the use of CPT may decrease the burden of COVID-19 transmission.
format	article
author	Hennie Husniah Ruhanda Ruhanda Asep K. Supriatna Md. H. A. Biswas
author_facet	Hennie Husniah Ruhanda Ruhanda Asep K. Supriatna Md. H. A. Biswas
author_sort	Hennie Husniah
title	SEIR Mathematical Model of Convalescent Plasma Transfusion to Reduce COVID-19 Disease Transmission
title_short	SEIR Mathematical Model of Convalescent Plasma Transfusion to Reduce COVID-19 Disease Transmission
title_full	SEIR Mathematical Model of Convalescent Plasma Transfusion to Reduce COVID-19 Disease Transmission
title_fullStr	SEIR Mathematical Model of Convalescent Plasma Transfusion to Reduce COVID-19 Disease Transmission
title_full_unstemmed	SEIR Mathematical Model of Convalescent Plasma Transfusion to Reduce COVID-19 Disease Transmission
title_sort	seir mathematical model of convalescent plasma transfusion to reduce covid-19 disease transmission
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/662fe03fac63470a9363da3a07db45a3
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SEIR Mathematical Model of Convalescent Plasma Transfusion to Reduce COVID-19 Disease Transmission

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