Perbandingan Keakuratan Hasil Peramalan Produksi Bawang Merah Metode Holt-Winters dengan Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)

The Holt-Winters method is used to model data with seasonal patterns, whether trends or not. There are two methods of forecasting in Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), namely recurrent method (R-forecasting) and vector method (V-forecasting). The recurrent method performs continuous continuation (wit...

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Autores principales:	Yogo Aryo Jatmiko, Rini Luciani Rahayu, Gumgum Darmawan
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Department of Mathematics, UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya 2017
Materias:	Holt-Winters, MAPE, R-forecasting, SSA, V-forecasting Mathematics QA1-939
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/66c01dd855634704beb4497503ae6534
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:66c01dd855634704beb4497503ae65342021-12-02T14:53:31ZPerbandingan Keakuratan Hasil Peramalan Produksi Bawang Merah Metode Holt-Winters dengan Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)2527-31592527-316710.15642/mantik.2017.3.1.13-22https://doaj.org/article/66c01dd855634704beb4497503ae65342017-10-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jurnalsaintek.uinsby.ac.id/index.php/mantik/article/view/158https://doaj.org/toc/2527-3159https://doaj.org/toc/2527-3167The Holt-Winters method is used to model data with seasonal patterns, whether trends or not. There are two methods of forecasting in Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), namely recurrent method (R-forecasting) and vector method (V-forecasting). The recurrent method performs continuous continuation (with the help of LRF), whereas the vector method corresponds to the L-continuation. Different methods of course make a difference in the accuracy of forecast results. To see the difference between the three methods is done by looking at the comparison of accuracy and reliability of forecast results. To measure the accuracy of forecasting used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and to measure the reliability of forecasting results is done by tracking signal. Applications are done on Indonesian red onion production from January 2006 to December 2015. Forecasting of both methods in SSA uses window length L = 39 and grouping r = 8. With α = 0.1, β = 0.001 and γ = 0.5, Holt-Winters additive method gives better result with MAPE 13,469% than SSA method. Keywords:Yogo Aryo JatmikoRini Luciani RahayuGumgum DarmawanDepartment of Mathematics, UIN Sunan Ampel SurabayaarticleHolt-Winters, MAPE, R-forecasting, SSA, V-forecastingMathematicsQA1-939ENMantik: Jurnal Matematika, Vol 3, Iss 1, Pp 13-22 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Holt-Winters, MAPE, R-forecasting, SSA, V-forecasting Mathematics QA1-939
spellingShingle	Holt-Winters, MAPE, R-forecasting, SSA, V-forecasting Mathematics QA1-939 Yogo Aryo Jatmiko Rini Luciani Rahayu Gumgum Darmawan Perbandingan Keakuratan Hasil Peramalan Produksi Bawang Merah Metode Holt-Winters dengan Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)
description	The Holt-Winters method is used to model data with seasonal patterns, whether trends or not. There are two methods of forecasting in Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), namely recurrent method (R-forecasting) and vector method (V-forecasting). The recurrent method performs continuous continuation (with the help of LRF), whereas the vector method corresponds to the L-continuation. Different methods of course make a difference in the accuracy of forecast results. To see the difference between the three methods is done by looking at the comparison of accuracy and reliability of forecast results. To measure the accuracy of forecasting used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and to measure the reliability of forecasting results is done by tracking signal. Applications are done on Indonesian red onion production from January 2006 to December 2015. Forecasting of both methods in SSA uses window length L = 39 and grouping r = 8. With α = 0.1, β = 0.001 and γ = 0.5, Holt-Winters additive method gives better result with MAPE 13,469% than SSA method. Keywords:
format	article
author	Yogo Aryo Jatmiko Rini Luciani Rahayu Gumgum Darmawan
author_facet	Yogo Aryo Jatmiko Rini Luciani Rahayu Gumgum Darmawan
author_sort	Yogo Aryo Jatmiko
title	Perbandingan Keakuratan Hasil Peramalan Produksi Bawang Merah Metode Holt-Winters dengan Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)
title_short	Perbandingan Keakuratan Hasil Peramalan Produksi Bawang Merah Metode Holt-Winters dengan Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)
title_full	Perbandingan Keakuratan Hasil Peramalan Produksi Bawang Merah Metode Holt-Winters dengan Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)
title_fullStr	Perbandingan Keakuratan Hasil Peramalan Produksi Bawang Merah Metode Holt-Winters dengan Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)
title_full_unstemmed	Perbandingan Keakuratan Hasil Peramalan Produksi Bawang Merah Metode Holt-Winters dengan Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)
title_sort	perbandingan keakuratan hasil peramalan produksi bawang merah metode holt-winters dengan singular spectrum analysis (ssa)
publisher	Department of Mathematics, UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/66c01dd855634704beb4497503ae6534
work_keys_str_mv	AT yogoaryojatmiko perbandingankeakuratanhasilperamalanproduksibawangmerahmetodeholtwintersdengansingularspectrumanalysisssa AT rinilucianirahayu perbandingankeakuratanhasilperamalanproduksibawangmerahmetodeholtwintersdengansingularspectrumanalysisssa AT gumgumdarmawan perbandingankeakuratanhasilperamalanproduksibawangmerahmetodeholtwintersdengansingularspectrumanalysisssa
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Perbandingan Keakuratan Hasil Peramalan Produksi Bawang Merah Metode Holt-Winters dengan Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)

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