Climate change impact on the potential geographical distribution of two invading Xylosandrus ambrosia beetles

Abstract Xylosandrus compactus and X. crassiusculus are two polyphagous ambrosia beetles originating from Asia and invasive in circumtropical regions worldwide. Both species were recently reported in Italy and further invaded several other European countries in the following years. We used the MaxEn...

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Autores principales:	T. Urvois, M. A. Auger-Rozenberg, A. Roques, J. P. Rossi, C. Kerdelhue
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/66c7bf7d6f134ea89373074fce4db0ea
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:66c7bf7d6f134ea89373074fce4db0ea2021-12-02T14:12:08ZClimate change impact on the potential geographical distribution of two invading Xylosandrus ambrosia beetles10.1038/s41598-020-80157-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/66c7bf7d6f134ea89373074fce4db0ea2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80157-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Xylosandrus compactus and X. crassiusculus are two polyphagous ambrosia beetles originating from Asia and invasive in circumtropical regions worldwide. Both species were recently reported in Italy and further invaded several other European countries in the following years. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to estimate the suitable areas worldwide for both species under the current climate. We also made future projections for years 2050 and 2070 using 11 different General Circulation Models, for 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Our analyses showed that X. compactus has not been reported in all potentially suitable areas yet. Its current distribution in Europe is localised, whereas our results predicted that most of the periphery of the Mediterranean Sea and most of the Atlantic coast of France could be suitable. Outside Europe, our results also predicted Central America, all islands in Southeast Asia and some Oceanian coasts as suitable. Even though our results when modelling its potential distribution under future climates were more variable, the models predicted an increase in suitability poleward and more uncertainty in the circumtropical regions. For X. crassiusculus, the same method only yielded poor results, and the models thus could not be used for predictions. We discuss here these results and propose advice about risk prevention and invasion management of both species.T. UrvoisM. A. Auger-RozenbergA. RoquesJ. P. RossiC. KerdelhueNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q T. Urvois M. A. Auger-Rozenberg A. Roques J. P. Rossi C. Kerdelhue Climate change impact on the potential geographical distribution of two invading Xylosandrus ambrosia beetles
description	Abstract Xylosandrus compactus and X. crassiusculus are two polyphagous ambrosia beetles originating from Asia and invasive in circumtropical regions worldwide. Both species were recently reported in Italy and further invaded several other European countries in the following years. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to estimate the suitable areas worldwide for both species under the current climate. We also made future projections for years 2050 and 2070 using 11 different General Circulation Models, for 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Our analyses showed that X. compactus has not been reported in all potentially suitable areas yet. Its current distribution in Europe is localised, whereas our results predicted that most of the periphery of the Mediterranean Sea and most of the Atlantic coast of France could be suitable. Outside Europe, our results also predicted Central America, all islands in Southeast Asia and some Oceanian coasts as suitable. Even though our results when modelling its potential distribution under future climates were more variable, the models predicted an increase in suitability poleward and more uncertainty in the circumtropical regions. For X. crassiusculus, the same method only yielded poor results, and the models thus could not be used for predictions. We discuss here these results and propose advice about risk prevention and invasion management of both species.
format	article
author	T. Urvois M. A. Auger-Rozenberg A. Roques J. P. Rossi C. Kerdelhue
author_facet	T. Urvois M. A. Auger-Rozenberg A. Roques J. P. Rossi C. Kerdelhue
author_sort	T. Urvois
title	Climate change impact on the potential geographical distribution of two invading Xylosandrus ambrosia beetles
title_short	Climate change impact on the potential geographical distribution of two invading Xylosandrus ambrosia beetles
title_full	Climate change impact on the potential geographical distribution of two invading Xylosandrus ambrosia beetles
title_fullStr	Climate change impact on the potential geographical distribution of two invading Xylosandrus ambrosia beetles
title_full_unstemmed	Climate change impact on the potential geographical distribution of two invading Xylosandrus ambrosia beetles
title_sort	climate change impact on the potential geographical distribution of two invading xylosandrus ambrosia beetles
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/66c7bf7d6f134ea89373074fce4db0ea
work_keys_str_mv	AT turvois climatechangeimpactonthepotentialgeographicaldistributionoftwoinvadingxylosandrusambrosiabeetles AT maaugerrozenberg climatechangeimpactonthepotentialgeographicaldistributionoftwoinvadingxylosandrusambrosiabeetles AT aroques climatechangeimpactonthepotentialgeographicaldistributionoftwoinvadingxylosandrusambrosiabeetles AT jprossi climatechangeimpactonthepotentialgeographicaldistributionoftwoinvadingxylosandrusambrosiabeetles AT ckerdelhue climatechangeimpactonthepotentialgeographicaldistributionoftwoinvadingxylosandrusambrosiabeetles
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Climate change impact on the potential geographical distribution of two invading Xylosandrus ambrosia beetles

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