Projection of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan new area of Hebei Province, China

Abstract It is of great importance to explore the future spatiotemporal dynamics of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan New Area, an area of great strategic significance under construction in China. Based on 6.25 km high-resolution downscaling projection data under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenari...

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Autores principales:	Dapeng Huang, Yaoming Liao, Zhenyu Han
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/66dc10c785764b0eaef46dabecf2bb26
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:66dc10c785764b0eaef46dabecf2bb262021-12-02T18:14:22ZProjection of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan new area of Hebei Province, China10.1038/s41598-021-98160-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/66dc10c785764b0eaef46dabecf2bb262021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98160-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract It is of great importance to explore the future spatiotemporal dynamics of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan New Area, an area of great strategic significance under construction in China. Based on 6.25 km high-resolution downscaling projection data under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, Mann–Kendall trend and linear trend were analyzed, and then stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and time-varying GEV methods were determined to calculate the extremes of four key meteorological hazard factors with return periods of 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 years during the projection period 1991–2050. Results show that extremes of annual maximum daily precipitation and annual maximum amount of consecutive precipitation under two climate scenarios will not increase too much. Extremes of annual maximum temperature will increase by above 1.5 °C under RCP4.5 scenario in most grids and above 1.9 °C under RCP8.5 scenario. Extremes of annual longest consecutive high-temperature days will increase by above 0.9d under RCP4.5 scenario and above 1.6d under RCP8.5 scenario. On the whole, the hazard of flood disaster will hardly show any change up to 2050, but there will be relatively higher flood hazard in Xiongxian county and its adjacent region. All regions in Xiongan New Area will face high hazard of high-temperature disaster.Dapeng HuangYaoming LiaoZhenyu HanNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Dapeng Huang Yaoming Liao Zhenyu Han Projection of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan new area of Hebei Province, China
description	Abstract It is of great importance to explore the future spatiotemporal dynamics of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan New Area, an area of great strategic significance under construction in China. Based on 6.25 km high-resolution downscaling projection data under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, Mann–Kendall trend and linear trend were analyzed, and then stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and time-varying GEV methods were determined to calculate the extremes of four key meteorological hazard factors with return periods of 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 years during the projection period 1991–2050. Results show that extremes of annual maximum daily precipitation and annual maximum amount of consecutive precipitation under two climate scenarios will not increase too much. Extremes of annual maximum temperature will increase by above 1.5 °C under RCP4.5 scenario in most grids and above 1.9 °C under RCP8.5 scenario. Extremes of annual longest consecutive high-temperature days will increase by above 0.9d under RCP4.5 scenario and above 1.6d under RCP8.5 scenario. On the whole, the hazard of flood disaster will hardly show any change up to 2050, but there will be relatively higher flood hazard in Xiongxian county and its adjacent region. All regions in Xiongan New Area will face high hazard of high-temperature disaster.
format	article
author	Dapeng Huang Yaoming Liao Zhenyu Han
author_facet	Dapeng Huang Yaoming Liao Zhenyu Han
author_sort	Dapeng Huang
title	Projection of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan new area of Hebei Province, China
title_short	Projection of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan new area of Hebei Province, China
title_full	Projection of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan new area of Hebei Province, China
title_fullStr	Projection of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan new area of Hebei Province, China
title_full_unstemmed	Projection of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan new area of Hebei Province, China
title_sort	projection of key meteorological hazard factors in xiongan new area of hebei province, china
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/66dc10c785764b0eaef46dabecf2bb26
work_keys_str_mv	AT dapenghuang projectionofkeymeteorologicalhazardfactorsinxiongannewareaofhebeiprovincechina AT yaomingliao projectionofkeymeteorologicalhazardfactorsinxiongannewareaofhebeiprovincechina AT zhenyuhan projectionofkeymeteorologicalhazardfactorsinxiongannewareaofhebeiprovincechina
_version_	1718378396598140928

Projection of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan new area of Hebei Province, China

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