Trends of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Its Influencing Factors in China

Bang Li,1,2,&ast; Yan Liu,1,2,&ast; Jiao Peng,3 Chao Sun,2 Weiqing Rang1 1Hunan Key Laboratory of Typical Environmental Pollution and Health Hazards, School of Public Health, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Hengyang, Hunan, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Public He...

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Autores principales:	Li B, Liu Y, Peng J, Sun C, Rang W
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Dove Medical Press 2021
Materias:	esophageal cancer junction regression negative binomial regression model age-period-cohort analyses Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6744b288653e43a08d573675666d63f3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6744b288653e43a08d573675666d63f32021-11-30T18:50:37ZTrends of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Its Influencing Factors in China1179-1594https://doaj.org/article/6744b288653e43a08d573675666d63f32021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.dovepress.com/trends-of-esophageal-cancer-incidence-and-mortality-and-its-influencin-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-RMHPhttps://doaj.org/toc/1179-1594Bang Li,1,2,&ast; Yan Liu,1,2,&ast; Jiao Peng,3 Chao Sun,2 Weiqing Rang1 1Hunan Key Laboratory of Typical Environmental Pollution and Health Hazards, School of Public Health, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Hengyang, Hunan, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Pathogen Biology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China&ast;These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Weiqing RangHunan Key Laboratory of Typical Environmental Pollotion and Health Hazards, School of Public Health, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, The 28th of Changsheng Road, Hengyang, Hunan, People’s Republic of ChinaEmail rwqktz2018@126.comPurpose: To explore the esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality trends and risk factors in China during 2005– 2015.Materials and Methods: The data were stratified by area (urban, rural), gender (male, female), and age groups (0 ∼, 5 ∼, …, 85 ∼). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR), age-specific incidence and mortality were calculated to describe the trends, which were analyzed by Joinpoint software, negative binomial regression model, and age-period-cohort model.Results: Trends in EC ASIR decreased markedly during 2010– 2015 (APC=− 6.14%, P< 0.05), and the average annual percent change (AAPC) value was − 8.07% (95% confidence interval (CI): − 9.98∼− 6.12) for rural areas during 2005– 2015. The ASMR was on a fast-downward trend after 2011 (APC=− 6.67%, P< 0.05), with AAPC values of − 1.34% (95% CI: − 2.56∼− 0.19) for males, − 3.39% (95% CI: − 5.65, − 1.07) for females, and − 9.67% (95% CI: − 10.56∼− 8.77) for rural areas during 2005– 2015. The age-specific incidence and mortality increased with age. The risk of EC for males was 3.1675 times higher than females (P< 0.001), and for urban areas, it was 0.58 times larger than rural (P< 0.001). The age and period effects presented an increasing trend, with a decreasing trend for the cohort effects in incidence and mortality risk. Later birth cohorts presented lower risks than previous birth cohorts.Conclusion: ASIR and ASMR in China are higher in males than females, and higher in rural than urban areas, which have decreased during 2005– 2015, especially in rural areas. The incidence increased with age up to the peak age group of 75. Area, gender, and age were independent risk factors for EC incidence.Keywords: esophageal cancer, junction regression, negative binomial regression model, age-period-cohort analysesLi BLiu YPeng JSun CRang WDove Medical Pressarticleesophageal cancerjunction regressionnegative binomial regression modelage-period-cohort analysesPublic aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENRisk Management and Healthcare Policy, Vol Volume 14, Pp 4809-4821 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	esophageal cancer junction regression negative binomial regression model age-period-cohort analyses Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	esophageal cancer junction regression negative binomial regression model age-period-cohort analyses Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Li B Liu Y Peng J Sun C Rang W Trends of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Its Influencing Factors in China
description	Bang Li,1,2,&ast; Yan Liu,1,2,&ast; Jiao Peng,3 Chao Sun,2 Weiqing Rang1 1Hunan Key Laboratory of Typical Environmental Pollution and Health Hazards, School of Public Health, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Hengyang, Hunan, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Pathogen Biology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China&ast;These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Weiqing RangHunan Key Laboratory of Typical Environmental Pollotion and Health Hazards, School of Public Health, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, The 28th of Changsheng Road, Hengyang, Hunan, People’s Republic of ChinaEmail rwqktz2018@126.comPurpose: To explore the esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality trends and risk factors in China during 2005– 2015.Materials and Methods: The data were stratified by area (urban, rural), gender (male, female), and age groups (0 ∼, 5 ∼, …, 85 ∼). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR), age-specific incidence and mortality were calculated to describe the trends, which were analyzed by Joinpoint software, negative binomial regression model, and age-period-cohort model.Results: Trends in EC ASIR decreased markedly during 2010– 2015 (APC=− 6.14%, P< 0.05), and the average annual percent change (AAPC) value was − 8.07% (95% confidence interval (CI): − 9.98∼− 6.12) for rural areas during 2005– 2015. The ASMR was on a fast-downward trend after 2011 (APC=− 6.67%, P< 0.05), with AAPC values of − 1.34% (95% CI: − 2.56∼− 0.19) for males, − 3.39% (95% CI: − 5.65, − 1.07) for females, and − 9.67% (95% CI: − 10.56∼− 8.77) for rural areas during 2005– 2015. The age-specific incidence and mortality increased with age. The risk of EC for males was 3.1675 times higher than females (P< 0.001), and for urban areas, it was 0.58 times larger than rural (P< 0.001). The age and period effects presented an increasing trend, with a decreasing trend for the cohort effects in incidence and mortality risk. Later birth cohorts presented lower risks than previous birth cohorts.Conclusion: ASIR and ASMR in China are higher in males than females, and higher in rural than urban areas, which have decreased during 2005– 2015, especially in rural areas. The incidence increased with age up to the peak age group of 75. Area, gender, and age were independent risk factors for EC incidence.Keywords: esophageal cancer, junction regression, negative binomial regression model, age-period-cohort analyses
format	article
author	Li B Liu Y Peng J Sun C Rang W
author_facet	Li B Liu Y Peng J Sun C Rang W
author_sort	Li B
title	Trends of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Its Influencing Factors in China
title_short	Trends of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Its Influencing Factors in China
title_full	Trends of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Its Influencing Factors in China
title_fullStr	Trends of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Its Influencing Factors in China
title_full_unstemmed	Trends of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Its Influencing Factors in China
title_sort	trends of esophageal cancer incidence and mortality and its influencing factors in china
publisher	Dove Medical Press
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6744b288653e43a08d573675666d63f3
work_keys_str_mv	AT lib trendsofesophagealcancerincidenceandmortalityanditsinfluencingfactorsinchina AT liuy trendsofesophagealcancerincidenceandmortalityanditsinfluencingfactorsinchina AT pengj trendsofesophagealcancerincidenceandmortalityanditsinfluencingfactorsinchina AT sunc trendsofesophagealcancerincidenceandmortalityanditsinfluencingfactorsinchina AT rangw trendsofesophagealcancerincidenceandmortalityanditsinfluencingfactorsinchina
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Trends of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Its Influencing Factors in China

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