Proposing Electric Motorcycle Adoption-Diffusion Model in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach

In 2019, the number of conventional vehicles in Indonesia reached 133,617,012 units, dominated by motorcycles of 112,771,136 units and passenger cars of 15,592,419 units. The high number of conventional motorcycle users can increase the number of pollutants and combustion emissions in the environmen...

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Autores principales:	Dwi Setyo Sulistyono, Yuniaristanto Yuniaristanto, Wahyudi Sutopo, Muhammad Hisjam
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN ID
Publicado:	Universitas Andalas 2021
Materias:	electric motorcycles system dynamics simulation market share life cycle cost Industry HD2321-4730.9
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/67fc8c48496c430b9fdaf26bbb0da8d3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:67fc8c48496c430b9fdaf26bbb0da8d32021-12-02T22:52:17ZProposing Electric Motorcycle Adoption-Diffusion Model in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach2088-48422442-879510.25077/josi.v20.n2.p83-92.2021https://doaj.org/article/67fc8c48496c430b9fdaf26bbb0da8d32021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://josi.ft.unand.ac.id/index.php/josi/article/view/528https://doaj.org/toc/2088-4842https://doaj.org/toc/2442-8795In 2019, the number of conventional vehicles in Indonesia reached 133,617,012 units, dominated by motorcycles of 112,771,136 units and passenger cars of 15,592,419 units. The high number of conventional motorcycle users can increase the number of pollutants and combustion emissions in the environment. This condition has encouraged the transition to a sustainable transport system that will be needed for decades to come, especially for the electric motorcycle to resolve the issue. This research aims to predict and estimate the market share of electric motorcycles by considering life cycle cost per kilometer. System dynamics simulations are developed to model the adoption-diffusion of electric motorcycles in Indonesia. This model has four main modules: an electric motorcycle module, a conventional motorcycle module, an economy module, and a consumer market module. This model shows a positive trend of EM market share from 2021-2030, with the market share value of EM is 0,411 in 2030. The development of retail price subsidy and electricity price scenarios is also carried out to determine the right policies to accelerate the adoption-diffusion process. Based on the scenario, the provision of retail price subsidy and a decrease in electricity price can increase the value of the EM Market Share.Dwi Setyo SulistyonoYuniaristanto YuniaristantoWahyudi SutopoMuhammad HisjamUniversitas Andalasarticleelectric motorcyclessystem dynamicssimulationmarket sharelife cycle costIndustryHD2321-4730.9ENIDJurnal Optimasi Sistem Industri, Vol 20, Iss 2, Pp 83-92 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN ID
topic	electric motorcycles system dynamics simulation market share life cycle cost Industry HD2321-4730.9
spellingShingle	electric motorcycles system dynamics simulation market share life cycle cost Industry HD2321-4730.9 Dwi Setyo Sulistyono Yuniaristanto Yuniaristanto Wahyudi Sutopo Muhammad Hisjam Proposing Electric Motorcycle Adoption-Diffusion Model in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
description	In 2019, the number of conventional vehicles in Indonesia reached 133,617,012 units, dominated by motorcycles of 112,771,136 units and passenger cars of 15,592,419 units. The high number of conventional motorcycle users can increase the number of pollutants and combustion emissions in the environment. This condition has encouraged the transition to a sustainable transport system that will be needed for decades to come, especially for the electric motorcycle to resolve the issue. This research aims to predict and estimate the market share of electric motorcycles by considering life cycle cost per kilometer. System dynamics simulations are developed to model the adoption-diffusion of electric motorcycles in Indonesia. This model has four main modules: an electric motorcycle module, a conventional motorcycle module, an economy module, and a consumer market module. This model shows a positive trend of EM market share from 2021-2030, with the market share value of EM is 0,411 in 2030. The development of retail price subsidy and electricity price scenarios is also carried out to determine the right policies to accelerate the adoption-diffusion process. Based on the scenario, the provision of retail price subsidy and a decrease in electricity price can increase the value of the EM Market Share.
format	article
author	Dwi Setyo Sulistyono Yuniaristanto Yuniaristanto Wahyudi Sutopo Muhammad Hisjam
author_facet	Dwi Setyo Sulistyono Yuniaristanto Yuniaristanto Wahyudi Sutopo Muhammad Hisjam
author_sort	Dwi Setyo Sulistyono
title	Proposing Electric Motorcycle Adoption-Diffusion Model in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
title_short	Proposing Electric Motorcycle Adoption-Diffusion Model in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
title_full	Proposing Electric Motorcycle Adoption-Diffusion Model in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
title_fullStr	Proposing Electric Motorcycle Adoption-Diffusion Model in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
title_full_unstemmed	Proposing Electric Motorcycle Adoption-Diffusion Model in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
title_sort	proposing electric motorcycle adoption-diffusion model in indonesia: a system dynamics approach
publisher	Universitas Andalas
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/67fc8c48496c430b9fdaf26bbb0da8d3
work_keys_str_mv	AT dwisetyosulistyono proposingelectricmotorcycleadoptiondiffusionmodelinindonesiaasystemdynamicsapproach AT yuniaristantoyuniaristanto proposingelectricmotorcycleadoptiondiffusionmodelinindonesiaasystemdynamicsapproach AT wahyudisutopo proposingelectricmotorcycleadoptiondiffusionmodelinindonesiaasystemdynamicsapproach AT muhammadhisjam proposingelectricmotorcycleadoptiondiffusionmodelinindonesiaasystemdynamicsapproach
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Proposing Electric Motorcycle Adoption-Diffusion Model in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach

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