Why was the 2009 influenza pandemic in England so small?

The "Swine flu" pandemic of 2009 caused world-wide infections and deaths. Early efforts to understand its rate of spread were used to predict the probable future number of cases, but by the end of 2009 it was clear that these predictions had substantially overestimated the pandemic's...

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Autores principales:	Ruben J Kubiak, Angela R McLean
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6845184c27364be585741cba5917adc3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6845184c27364be585741cba5917adc32021-11-18T07:28:32ZWhy was the 2009 influenza pandemic in England so small?1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0030223https://doaj.org/article/6845184c27364be585741cba5917adc32012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22348001/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203The "Swine flu" pandemic of 2009 caused world-wide infections and deaths. Early efforts to understand its rate of spread were used to predict the probable future number of cases, but by the end of 2009 it was clear that these predictions had substantially overestimated the pandemic's eventual impact. In England, the Health Protection Agency made announcements of the number of cases of disease, which turned out to be surprisingly low for an influenza pandemic. The agency also carried out a serological survey half-way through the English epidemic. In this study, we use a mathematical model to reconcile early estimates of the rate of spread of infection, weekly data on the number of cases in the 2009 epidemic in England and the serological status of the English population at the end of the first pandemic wave. Our results reveal that if there are around 19 infections (i.e., seroconverters) for every reported case then the three data-sets are entirely consistent with each other. We go on to discuss when in the epidemic such a high ratio of seroconverters to cases of disease might have been detected, either through patterns in the case reports or through even earlier serological surveys.Ruben J KubiakAngela R McLeanPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 2, p e30223 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Ruben J Kubiak Angela R McLean Why was the 2009 influenza pandemic in England so small?
description	The "Swine flu" pandemic of 2009 caused world-wide infections and deaths. Early efforts to understand its rate of spread were used to predict the probable future number of cases, but by the end of 2009 it was clear that these predictions had substantially overestimated the pandemic's eventual impact. In England, the Health Protection Agency made announcements of the number of cases of disease, which turned out to be surprisingly low for an influenza pandemic. The agency also carried out a serological survey half-way through the English epidemic. In this study, we use a mathematical model to reconcile early estimates of the rate of spread of infection, weekly data on the number of cases in the 2009 epidemic in England and the serological status of the English population at the end of the first pandemic wave. Our results reveal that if there are around 19 infections (i.e., seroconverters) for every reported case then the three data-sets are entirely consistent with each other. We go on to discuss when in the epidemic such a high ratio of seroconverters to cases of disease might have been detected, either through patterns in the case reports or through even earlier serological surveys.
format	article
author	Ruben J Kubiak Angela R McLean
author_facet	Ruben J Kubiak Angela R McLean
author_sort	Ruben J Kubiak
title	Why was the 2009 influenza pandemic in England so small?
title_short	Why was the 2009 influenza pandemic in England so small?
title_full	Why was the 2009 influenza pandemic in England so small?
title_fullStr	Why was the 2009 influenza pandemic in England so small?
title_full_unstemmed	Why was the 2009 influenza pandemic in England so small?
title_sort	why was the 2009 influenza pandemic in england so small?
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/6845184c27364be585741cba5917adc3
work_keys_str_mv	AT rubenjkubiak whywasthe2009influenzapandemicinenglandsosmall AT angelarmclean whywasthe2009influenzapandemicinenglandsosmall
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Why was the 2009 influenza pandemic in England so small?

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