Improvement of Heavy Rainfall Simulated with SST Adjustment Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Related to Severe Flash Flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia

Flash flooding is an important issue as it has a devastating impact over a short time and in a limited area. However, predicting flash floods is challenging because they are connected to convection systems that rapidly evolve and require a high-resolution forecasting system. In addition, modeling a...

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Autores principales:	Erma Yulihastin, Danang Eko Nuryanto, Trismidianto, Robi Muharsyah
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	flash flood mesoscale convective complex heavy rainfall warm front sea surface temperature Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/686c800dac7c4ab0b3051cb2ee57fb20
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:686c800dac7c4ab0b3051cb2ee57fb202021-11-25T16:44:53ZImprovement of Heavy Rainfall Simulated with SST Adjustment Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Related to Severe Flash Flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia10.3390/atmos121114452073-4433https://doaj.org/article/686c800dac7c4ab0b3051cb2ee57fb202021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1445https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433Flash flooding is an important issue as it has a devastating impact over a short time and in a limited area. However, predicting flash floods is challenging because they are connected to convection systems that rapidly evolve and require a high-resolution forecasting system. In addition, modeling a case study of a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) is the key to improving our understanding of the heavy rainfall systems that trigger flash floods. In this study, we aim at improving modeling skills to simulate a heavy rainfall system related to flash-flood-producing MCCs. We simulated a heavy rainfall event related to a severe flash flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia, on 13 July 2020. This flood was preceded by persistent heavy rainfall from 11 to 13 July 2020. In this case, we investigated the role of sea surface temperature (SST) in producing the persistent heavy rainfall over the region. Therefore, we explore the physical and dynamic processes that caused the heavy rainfall using a convection-permitting model with 1 km resolution and an experiment comparing the situation with and without updated SST. The results show that the heavy rainfall was modulated by the development of a pair of MCCs during the night. The pair of MCCs was triggered by a meso-low-pressure system with an anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly over the Makassar Strait and was maintained by the warm front passing between the sea and land over central Sulawesi. This front was characterized by moist–warm and cold–dry low-level air, which may have helped extend the lifetime of the MCCs. The north-westward propagation of the MCCs was due to the interaction between predominantly a south-easterly monsoon and SST anomalies. This study suggested that the long-lived (>10 h) MCCs (>80,000 km<sup>2</sup> cloud shield) and persistent precipitation are reproduced well in the updated SST scenario in the WRF model. This relatively simple technique in the running model provides a new strategy for improving flash flood forecasting by better predicting rainfall as an input in the hydrological model. Our findings also indicated a long-lived MCC maintained by back-building mechanisms from night to morning inland as an exceptional MCC, which does not correspond to a previous study.Erma YulihastinDanang Eko NuryantoTrismidiantoRobi MuharsyahMDPI AGarticleflash floodmesoscale convective complexheavy rainfallwarm frontsea surface temperatureMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENAtmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 1445, p 1445 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	flash flood mesoscale convective complex heavy rainfall warm front sea surface temperature Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	flash flood mesoscale convective complex heavy rainfall warm front sea surface temperature Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Erma Yulihastin Danang Eko Nuryanto Trismidianto Robi Muharsyah Improvement of Heavy Rainfall Simulated with SST Adjustment Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Related to Severe Flash Flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia
description	Flash flooding is an important issue as it has a devastating impact over a short time and in a limited area. However, predicting flash floods is challenging because they are connected to convection systems that rapidly evolve and require a high-resolution forecasting system. In addition, modeling a case study of a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) is the key to improving our understanding of the heavy rainfall systems that trigger flash floods. In this study, we aim at improving modeling skills to simulate a heavy rainfall system related to flash-flood-producing MCCs. We simulated a heavy rainfall event related to a severe flash flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia, on 13 July 2020. This flood was preceded by persistent heavy rainfall from 11 to 13 July 2020. In this case, we investigated the role of sea surface temperature (SST) in producing the persistent heavy rainfall over the region. Therefore, we explore the physical and dynamic processes that caused the heavy rainfall using a convection-permitting model with 1 km resolution and an experiment comparing the situation with and without updated SST. The results show that the heavy rainfall was modulated by the development of a pair of MCCs during the night. The pair of MCCs was triggered by a meso-low-pressure system with an anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly over the Makassar Strait and was maintained by the warm front passing between the sea and land over central Sulawesi. This front was characterized by moist–warm and cold–dry low-level air, which may have helped extend the lifetime of the MCCs. The north-westward propagation of the MCCs was due to the interaction between predominantly a south-easterly monsoon and SST anomalies. This study suggested that the long-lived (>10 h) MCCs (>80,000 km<sup>2</sup> cloud shield) and persistent precipitation are reproduced well in the updated SST scenario in the WRF model. This relatively simple technique in the running model provides a new strategy for improving flash flood forecasting by better predicting rainfall as an input in the hydrological model. Our findings also indicated a long-lived MCC maintained by back-building mechanisms from night to morning inland as an exceptional MCC, which does not correspond to a previous study.
format	article
author	Erma Yulihastin Danang Eko Nuryanto Trismidianto Robi Muharsyah
author_facet	Erma Yulihastin Danang Eko Nuryanto Trismidianto Robi Muharsyah
author_sort	Erma Yulihastin
title	Improvement of Heavy Rainfall Simulated with SST Adjustment Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Related to Severe Flash Flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia
title_short	Improvement of Heavy Rainfall Simulated with SST Adjustment Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Related to Severe Flash Flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia
title_full	Improvement of Heavy Rainfall Simulated with SST Adjustment Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Related to Severe Flash Flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia
title_fullStr	Improvement of Heavy Rainfall Simulated with SST Adjustment Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Related to Severe Flash Flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia
title_full_unstemmed	Improvement of Heavy Rainfall Simulated with SST Adjustment Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Related to Severe Flash Flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia
title_sort	improvement of heavy rainfall simulated with sst adjustment associated with mesoscale convective complexes related to severe flash flood in luwu, sulawesi, indonesia
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/686c800dac7c4ab0b3051cb2ee57fb20
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Improvement of Heavy Rainfall Simulated with SST Adjustment Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Related to Severe Flash Flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia

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