Modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale

The focus of this study was to investigate the impact of climate and land-use changes on water resources and to find suitable drought indices to identify the occurrence, frequency and severity of the past and future drought events. The Ebbw catchment, Wales, UK was selected for this study. Data for...

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Autores principales:	Muhammad Afzal, Nikolaos Vavlas, Ragab Ragab
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	climate change dicasm hydrological model ebbw catchment land use change ukcp09 water resources Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6a881de154b2479fa04eec0e698276e1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6a881de154b2479fa04eec0e698276e12021-11-05T18:30:51ZModelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2020.117https://doaj.org/article/6a881de154b2479fa04eec0e698276e12021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/2/339https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354The focus of this study was to investigate the impact of climate and land-use changes on water resources and to find suitable drought indices to identify the occurrence, frequency and severity of the past and future drought events. The Ebbw catchment, Wales, UK was selected for this study. Data for the 1961–2012 period were used as input to the DiCaSM model. Following model calibration and validation, the model was run with UKCP09 future climate scenarios for three periods (30 years each) up to 2099 under three emission scenarios. The reconnaissance drought index, the standardized precipitation index, soil moisture deficit and the wetness index were able to reproduce the past drought events. The data of UKCP09, simple change factors to temperature (± °C) and rainfall (%) using Joint Probability plot and daily values of the weather generator were input to the model. The projections indicated that the streamflow and groundwater recharge are likely to increase in winter and to decrease in spring, summer and autumn. Under all emission scenarios, the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and the streamflow is projected in the 2050s and 2080s under high emission scenario. Moreover, under medium and high emission scenarios, severity and frequency of the drought events are likely to be high. Land use change from grass and/or arable to woodland had significant impact on water resources.Muhammad AfzalNikolaos VavlasRagab RagabIWA Publishingarticleclimate changedicasm hydrological modelebbw catchmentland use changeukcp09water resourcesEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 2, Pp 339-361 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change dicasm hydrological model ebbw catchment land use change ukcp09 water resources Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	climate change dicasm hydrological model ebbw catchment land use change ukcp09 water resources Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Muhammad Afzal Nikolaos Vavlas Ragab Ragab Modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale
description	The focus of this study was to investigate the impact of climate and land-use changes on water resources and to find suitable drought indices to identify the occurrence, frequency and severity of the past and future drought events. The Ebbw catchment, Wales, UK was selected for this study. Data for the 1961–2012 period were used as input to the DiCaSM model. Following model calibration and validation, the model was run with UKCP09 future climate scenarios for three periods (30 years each) up to 2099 under three emission scenarios. The reconnaissance drought index, the standardized precipitation index, soil moisture deficit and the wetness index were able to reproduce the past drought events. The data of UKCP09, simple change factors to temperature (± °C) and rainfall (%) using Joint Probability plot and daily values of the weather generator were input to the model. The projections indicated that the streamflow and groundwater recharge are likely to increase in winter and to decrease in spring, summer and autumn. Under all emission scenarios, the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and the streamflow is projected in the 2050s and 2080s under high emission scenario. Moreover, under medium and high emission scenarios, severity and frequency of the drought events are likely to be high. Land use change from grass and/or arable to woodland had significant impact on water resources.
format	article
author	Muhammad Afzal Nikolaos Vavlas Ragab Ragab
author_facet	Muhammad Afzal Nikolaos Vavlas Ragab Ragab
author_sort	Muhammad Afzal
title	Modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale
title_short	Modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale
title_full	Modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale
title_fullStr	Modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale
title_sort	modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6a881de154b2479fa04eec0e698276e1
work_keys_str_mv	AT muhammadafzal modellingstudytoquantifytheimpactoffutureclimateandlandusechangesonwaterresourcesavailabilityatcatchmentscale AT nikolaosvavlas modellingstudytoquantifytheimpactoffutureclimateandlandusechangesonwaterresourcesavailabilityatcatchmentscale AT ragabragab modellingstudytoquantifytheimpactoffutureclimateandlandusechangesonwaterresourcesavailabilityatcatchmentscale
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Modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale

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