Comparison of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 2021 versus 2020 in Italy: surprises and implications [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]

Data from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) emphasized by the media indicate that COVID-19 vaccination reduces related infections, hospitalizations and deaths. However, a comparison showed significantly more hospitalizations and intensive care unit accesses in the corresponding months and days...

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Autores principales:	Alberto Donzelli, Marco Alessandria, Luca Orlando
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	F1000 Research Ltd 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6afcadf82d7f49a1b9053ca380b86f99
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6afcadf82d7f49a1b9053ca380b86f992021-11-22T12:41:07ZComparison of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 2021 versus 2020 in Italy: surprises and implications [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]2046-140210.12688/f1000research.73132.1https://doaj.org/article/6afcadf82d7f49a1b9053ca380b86f992021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://f1000research.com/articles/10-964/v1https://doaj.org/toc/2046-1402Data from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) emphasized by the media indicate that COVID-19 vaccination reduces related infections, hospitalizations and deaths. However, a comparison showed significantly more hospitalizations and intensive care unit accesses in the corresponding months and days in 2021 versus 2020 and no significant differences in deaths. The combination of non-alternative hypotheses may help explain the discrepancy between the results in the entire population and the vaccination’s success claimed by the ISS in reducing infections, serious cases and deaths: a bias: counting as unvaccinated also "those vaccinated with 1 dose in the two weeks following the inoculation", and as incompletely vaccinated also "those vaccinated with 2 doses within two weeks of the 2nd inoculation". a systematic error: counting as unvaccinated also "vaccinated with 1 dose in the two weeks following the inoculation", and as incompletely vaccinated also "vaccinated with 2 doses within two weeks of the 2nd inoculation". Many reports show an increase in COVID-19 cases in these time-windows, and related data should be separated levels of protective effectiveness in vaccinated people, often considered stable, actually show signs of progressive reduction over time, which could contribute to reducing the overall population result unvaccinated people show more severe disease than in 2020, supporting also in humans the theory of imperfect vaccines, which offer less resistance to the entry of germs than the resistance later encountered inside the human body. This favors the selection of more resistant and virulent mutants, that can be spread by vaccinated people. This damages first the unvaccinated people, but ultimately the whole community. An open scientific debate is needed to discuss these hypotheses, following the available evidence (as well as to discuss the inconsistent theory of unvaccinated young people as reservoirs of viruses/mutants), to assess the long-term and community impact of different vaccination strategies.Alberto DonzelliMarco AlessandriaLuca OrlandoF1000 Research LtdarticleMedicineRScienceQENF1000Research, Vol 10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Alberto Donzelli Marco Alessandria Luca Orlando Comparison of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 2021 versus 2020 in Italy: surprises and implications [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]
description	Data from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) emphasized by the media indicate that COVID-19 vaccination reduces related infections, hospitalizations and deaths. However, a comparison showed significantly more hospitalizations and intensive care unit accesses in the corresponding months and days in 2021 versus 2020 and no significant differences in deaths. The combination of non-alternative hypotheses may help explain the discrepancy between the results in the entire population and the vaccination’s success claimed by the ISS in reducing infections, serious cases and deaths: a bias: counting as unvaccinated also "those vaccinated with 1 dose in the two weeks following the inoculation", and as incompletely vaccinated also "those vaccinated with 2 doses within two weeks of the 2nd inoculation". a systematic error: counting as unvaccinated also "vaccinated with 1 dose in the two weeks following the inoculation", and as incompletely vaccinated also "vaccinated with 2 doses within two weeks of the 2nd inoculation". Many reports show an increase in COVID-19 cases in these time-windows, and related data should be separated levels of protective effectiveness in vaccinated people, often considered stable, actually show signs of progressive reduction over time, which could contribute to reducing the overall population result unvaccinated people show more severe disease than in 2020, supporting also in humans the theory of imperfect vaccines, which offer less resistance to the entry of germs than the resistance later encountered inside the human body. This favors the selection of more resistant and virulent mutants, that can be spread by vaccinated people. This damages first the unvaccinated people, but ultimately the whole community. An open scientific debate is needed to discuss these hypotheses, following the available evidence (as well as to discuss the inconsistent theory of unvaccinated young people as reservoirs of viruses/mutants), to assess the long-term and community impact of different vaccination strategies.
format	article
author	Alberto Donzelli Marco Alessandria Luca Orlando
author_facet	Alberto Donzelli Marco Alessandria Luca Orlando
author_sort	Alberto Donzelli
title	Comparison of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 2021 versus 2020 in Italy: surprises and implications [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]
title_short	Comparison of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 2021 versus 2020 in Italy: surprises and implications [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]
title_full	Comparison of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 2021 versus 2020 in Italy: surprises and implications [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]
title_fullStr	Comparison of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 2021 versus 2020 in Italy: surprises and implications [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]
title_full_unstemmed	Comparison of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 2021 versus 2020 in Italy: surprises and implications [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]
title_sort	comparison of hospitalizations and deaths from covid-19 2021 versus 2020 in italy: surprises and implications [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]
publisher	F1000 Research Ltd
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6afcadf82d7f49a1b9053ca380b86f99
work_keys_str_mv	AT albertodonzelli comparisonofhospitalizationsanddeathsfromcovid192021versus2020initalysurprisesandimplicationsversion1peerreview2approved AT marcoalessandria comparisonofhospitalizationsanddeathsfromcovid192021versus2020initalysurprisesandimplicationsversion1peerreview2approved AT lucaorlando comparisonofhospitalizationsanddeathsfromcovid192021versus2020initalysurprisesandimplicationsversion1peerreview2approved
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Comparison of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 2021 versus 2020 in Italy: surprises and implications [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]

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