Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study

Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was observed in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a religious sect in South Korea. The index case was confirmed on February 18, 2020 in Daegu City, and within two weeks, 3081 connected cases were identified. Doubling times during these initial...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Jong-Hoon Kim, Hyojung Lee, Yong Sul Won, Woo-Sik Son, Justin Im
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	COVID-19 Korea Shincheonji cluster Transmission model Reproduction number Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6b549269232a4439b1a44bf17c3505bb
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:6b549269232a4439b1a44bf17c3505bb
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6b549269232a4439b1a44bf17c3505bb2021-11-04T04:27:39ZRapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study1755-436510.1016/j.epidem.2021.100519https://doaj.org/article/6b549269232a4439b1a44bf17c3505bb2021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000657https://doaj.org/toc/1755-4365Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was observed in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a religious sect in South Korea. The index case was confirmed on February 18, 2020 in Daegu City, and within two weeks, 3081 connected cases were identified. Doubling times during these initial stages (i.e., February 18 – March 2) of the outbreak were less than 2 days. A stochastic model fitted to the time series of confirmed cases suggests that the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 was 8.5 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6.3, 10.9] among the church members, whereas (R0 = 1.9 [95% CrI: 0.4, 4.4]) in the rest of the population of Daegu City. The model also suggests that there were already 4 [95% CrI: 2, 11] undetected cases of COVID-19 on February 7 when the index case reportedly presented symptoms. The Shincheonji Church cluster is likely to be emblematic of other outbreak-prone populations where R0 of COVID-19 is higher. Understanding and subsequently limiting the risk of transmission in such high-risk places is key to effective control.Jong-Hoon KimHyojung LeeYong Sul WonWoo-Sik SonJustin ImElsevierarticleCOVID-19KoreaShincheonji clusterTransmission modelReproduction numberInfectious and parasitic diseasesRC109-216ENEpidemics, Vol 37, Iss , Pp 100519- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	COVID-19 Korea Shincheonji cluster Transmission model Reproduction number Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
spellingShingle	COVID-19 Korea Shincheonji cluster Transmission model Reproduction number Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Jong-Hoon Kim Hyojung Lee Yong Sul Won Woo-Sik Son Justin Im Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study
description	Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was observed in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a religious sect in South Korea. The index case was confirmed on February 18, 2020 in Daegu City, and within two weeks, 3081 connected cases were identified. Doubling times during these initial stages (i.e., February 18 – March 2) of the outbreak were less than 2 days. A stochastic model fitted to the time series of confirmed cases suggests that the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 was 8.5 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6.3, 10.9] among the church members, whereas (R0 = 1.9 [95% CrI: 0.4, 4.4]) in the rest of the population of Daegu City. The model also suggests that there were already 4 [95% CrI: 2, 11] undetected cases of COVID-19 on February 7 when the index case reportedly presented symptoms. The Shincheonji Church cluster is likely to be emblematic of other outbreak-prone populations where R0 of COVID-19 is higher. Understanding and subsequently limiting the risk of transmission in such high-risk places is key to effective control.
format	article
author	Jong-Hoon Kim Hyojung Lee Yong Sul Won Woo-Sik Son Justin Im
author_facet	Jong-Hoon Kim Hyojung Lee Yong Sul Won Woo-Sik Son Justin Im
author_sort	Jong-Hoon Kim
title	Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study
title_short	Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study
title_full	Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study
title_fullStr	Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study
title_full_unstemmed	Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study
title_sort	rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in south korea: a mathematical modeling study
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6b549269232a4439b1a44bf17c3505bb
work_keys_str_mv	AT jonghoonkim rapidtransmissionofcoronavirusdisease2019withinareligioussectinsouthkoreaamathematicalmodelingstudy AT hyojunglee rapidtransmissionofcoronavirusdisease2019withinareligioussectinsouthkoreaamathematicalmodelingstudy AT yongsulwon rapidtransmissionofcoronavirusdisease2019withinareligioussectinsouthkoreaamathematicalmodelingstudy AT woosikson rapidtransmissionofcoronavirusdisease2019withinareligioussectinsouthkoreaamathematicalmodelingstudy AT justinim rapidtransmissionofcoronavirusdisease2019withinareligioussectinsouthkoreaamathematicalmodelingstudy
_version_	1718445278674026496

Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study

Ejemplares similares