Superspreading in early transmissions of COVID-19 in Indonesia

Abstract This paper presents a study of early epidemiological assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Indonesia. The aim is to quantify heterogeneity in the numbers of secondary infections. To this end, we estimate the basic reproduction number $$\mathscr {R}_0$$ R 0 and the overdispersion p...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Agus Hasan, Hadi Susanto, Muhammad Firmansyah Kasim, Nuning Nuraini, Bony Lestari, Dessy Triany, Widyastuti Widyastuti
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2020
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6bc46a36ed7b40728c631fa24a6f6ccb
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:6bc46a36ed7b40728c631fa24a6f6ccb
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6bc46a36ed7b40728c631fa24a6f6ccb2021-12-02T15:12:41ZSuperspreading in early transmissions of COVID-19 in Indonesia10.1038/s41598-020-79352-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/6bc46a36ed7b40728c631fa24a6f6ccb2020-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79352-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract This paper presents a study of early epidemiological assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Indonesia. The aim is to quantify heterogeneity in the numbers of secondary infections. To this end, we estimate the basic reproduction number $$\mathscr {R}_0$$ R 0 and the overdispersion parameter $$\mathscr {K}$$ K at two regions in Indonesia: Jakarta–Depok and Batam. The method to estimate $$\mathscr {R}_0$$ R 0 is based on a sequential Bayesian method, while the parameter $$\mathscr {K}$$ K is estimated by fitting the secondary case data with a negative binomial distribution. Based on the first 1288 confirmed cases collected from both regions, we find a high degree of individual-level variation in the transmission. The basic reproduction number $$\mathscr {R}_0$$ R 0 is estimated at 6.79 and 2.47, while the overdispersion parameter $$\mathscr {K}$$ K of a negative-binomial distribution is estimated at 0.06 and 0.2 for Jakarta–Depok and Batam, respectively. This suggests that superspreading events played a key role in the early stage of the outbreak, i.e., a small number of infected individuals are responsible for large numbers of COVID-19 transmission. This finding can be used to determine effective public measures, such as rapid isolation and identification, which are critical since delay of diagnosis is the most common cause of superspreading events.Agus HasanHadi SusantoMuhammad Firmansyah KasimNuning NurainiBony LestariDessy TrianyWidyastuti WidyastutiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-4 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Agus Hasan Hadi Susanto Muhammad Firmansyah Kasim Nuning Nuraini Bony Lestari Dessy Triany Widyastuti Widyastuti Superspreading in early transmissions of COVID-19 in Indonesia
description	Abstract This paper presents a study of early epidemiological assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Indonesia. The aim is to quantify heterogeneity in the numbers of secondary infections. To this end, we estimate the basic reproduction number $$\mathscr {R}_0$$ R 0 and the overdispersion parameter $$\mathscr {K}$$ K at two regions in Indonesia: Jakarta–Depok and Batam. The method to estimate $$\mathscr {R}_0$$ R 0 is based on a sequential Bayesian method, while the parameter $$\mathscr {K}$$ K is estimated by fitting the secondary case data with a negative binomial distribution. Based on the first 1288 confirmed cases collected from both regions, we find a high degree of individual-level variation in the transmission. The basic reproduction number $$\mathscr {R}_0$$ R 0 is estimated at 6.79 and 2.47, while the overdispersion parameter $$\mathscr {K}$$ K of a negative-binomial distribution is estimated at 0.06 and 0.2 for Jakarta–Depok and Batam, respectively. This suggests that superspreading events played a key role in the early stage of the outbreak, i.e., a small number of infected individuals are responsible for large numbers of COVID-19 transmission. This finding can be used to determine effective public measures, such as rapid isolation and identification, which are critical since delay of diagnosis is the most common cause of superspreading events.
format	article
author	Agus Hasan Hadi Susanto Muhammad Firmansyah Kasim Nuning Nuraini Bony Lestari Dessy Triany Widyastuti Widyastuti
author_facet	Agus Hasan Hadi Susanto Muhammad Firmansyah Kasim Nuning Nuraini Bony Lestari Dessy Triany Widyastuti Widyastuti
author_sort	Agus Hasan
title	Superspreading in early transmissions of COVID-19 in Indonesia
title_short	Superspreading in early transmissions of COVID-19 in Indonesia
title_full	Superspreading in early transmissions of COVID-19 in Indonesia
title_fullStr	Superspreading in early transmissions of COVID-19 in Indonesia
title_full_unstemmed	Superspreading in early transmissions of COVID-19 in Indonesia
title_sort	superspreading in early transmissions of covid-19 in indonesia
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/6bc46a36ed7b40728c631fa24a6f6ccb
work_keys_str_mv	AT agushasan superspreadinginearlytransmissionsofcovid19inindonesia AT hadisusanto superspreadinginearlytransmissionsofcovid19inindonesia AT muhammadfirmansyahkasim superspreadinginearlytransmissionsofcovid19inindonesia AT nuningnuraini superspreadinginearlytransmissionsofcovid19inindonesia AT bonylestari superspreadinginearlytransmissionsofcovid19inindonesia AT dessytriany superspreadinginearlytransmissionsofcovid19inindonesia AT widyastutiwidyastuti superspreadinginearlytransmissionsofcovid19inindonesia
_version_	1718387636398194688

Superspreading in early transmissions of COVID-19 in Indonesia

Ejemplares similares