Spatiotemporal contact density explains the disparity of COVID-19 spread in urban neighborhoods

Abstract The rapid early spread of COVID-19 in the US was experienced very differently by different socioeconomic groups and business industries. In this study, we study aggregate mobility patterns of New York City and Chicago to identify the relationship between the amount of interpersonal contact...

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Autores principales:	Rajat Verma, Takahiro Yabe, Satish V. Ukkusuri
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6c383e31302e489d8ef2cfd6257814ef
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6c383e31302e489d8ef2cfd6257814ef2021-12-02T15:49:45ZSpatiotemporal contact density explains the disparity of COVID-19 spread in urban neighborhoods10.1038/s41598-021-90483-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/6c383e31302e489d8ef2cfd6257814ef2021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90483-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The rapid early spread of COVID-19 in the US was experienced very differently by different socioeconomic groups and business industries. In this study, we study aggregate mobility patterns of New York City and Chicago to identify the relationship between the amount of interpersonal contact between people in urban neighborhoods and the disparity in the growth of positive cases among these groups. We introduce an aggregate spatiotemporal contact density index (CDI) to measure the strength of this interpersonal contact using mobility data collected from mobile phones, and combine it with social distancing metrics to show its effect on positive case growth. With the help of structural equations modeling, we find that the effect of CDI on case growth was consistently positive and that it remained consistently higher in lower-income neighborhoods, suggesting a causal path of income on case growth via CDI. Using the CDI, schools and restaurants are identified as high contact density industries, and the estimation suggests that implementing specific mobility restrictions on these point-of-interest categories is most effective. This analysis can be useful in providing insights for government officials targeting specific population groups and businesses to reduce infection spread as reopening efforts continue to expand across the nation.Rajat VermaTakahiro YabeSatish V. UkkusuriNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Rajat Verma Takahiro Yabe Satish V. Ukkusuri Spatiotemporal contact density explains the disparity of COVID-19 spread in urban neighborhoods
description	Abstract The rapid early spread of COVID-19 in the US was experienced very differently by different socioeconomic groups and business industries. In this study, we study aggregate mobility patterns of New York City and Chicago to identify the relationship between the amount of interpersonal contact between people in urban neighborhoods and the disparity in the growth of positive cases among these groups. We introduce an aggregate spatiotemporal contact density index (CDI) to measure the strength of this interpersonal contact using mobility data collected from mobile phones, and combine it with social distancing metrics to show its effect on positive case growth. With the help of structural equations modeling, we find that the effect of CDI on case growth was consistently positive and that it remained consistently higher in lower-income neighborhoods, suggesting a causal path of income on case growth via CDI. Using the CDI, schools and restaurants are identified as high contact density industries, and the estimation suggests that implementing specific mobility restrictions on these point-of-interest categories is most effective. This analysis can be useful in providing insights for government officials targeting specific population groups and businesses to reduce infection spread as reopening efforts continue to expand across the nation.
format	article
author	Rajat Verma Takahiro Yabe Satish V. Ukkusuri
author_facet	Rajat Verma Takahiro Yabe Satish V. Ukkusuri
author_sort	Rajat Verma
title	Spatiotemporal contact density explains the disparity of COVID-19 spread in urban neighborhoods
title_short	Spatiotemporal contact density explains the disparity of COVID-19 spread in urban neighborhoods
title_full	Spatiotemporal contact density explains the disparity of COVID-19 spread in urban neighborhoods
title_fullStr	Spatiotemporal contact density explains the disparity of COVID-19 spread in urban neighborhoods
title_full_unstemmed	Spatiotemporal contact density explains the disparity of COVID-19 spread in urban neighborhoods
title_sort	spatiotemporal contact density explains the disparity of covid-19 spread in urban neighborhoods
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6c383e31302e489d8ef2cfd6257814ef
work_keys_str_mv	AT rajatverma spatiotemporalcontactdensityexplainsthedisparityofcovid19spreadinurbanneighborhoods AT takahiroyabe spatiotemporalcontactdensityexplainsthedisparityofcovid19spreadinurbanneighborhoods AT satishvukkusuri spatiotemporalcontactdensityexplainsthedisparityofcovid19spreadinurbanneighborhoods
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Spatiotemporal contact density explains the disparity of COVID-19 spread in urban neighborhoods

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