Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation

Abstract People receiving COVID-19 vaccines may subsequently markedly increase their previously suppressed exposure risk. A simple model can evaluate the benefit of vaccination to the vaccinated (index) person and others exposed to that person; and calculate the amount of risk compensation required...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal:	John P. A. Ioannidis
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Immunologic diseases. Allergy RC581-607 Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens RC254-282
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6d2de73701fa42be9c8a804f790eb33b
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:6d2de73701fa42be9c8a804f790eb33b
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6d2de73701fa42be9c8a804f790eb33b2021-12-02T15:08:32ZBenefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation10.1038/s41541-021-00362-z2059-0105https://doaj.org/article/6d2de73701fa42be9c8a804f790eb33b2021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41541-021-00362-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2059-0105Abstract People receiving COVID-19 vaccines may subsequently markedly increase their previously suppressed exposure risk. A simple model can evaluate the benefit of vaccination to the vaccinated (index) person and others exposed to that person; and calculate the amount of risk compensation required to eliminate all the benefits or to halve the benefit. As shown, 2.5-fold increase in exposure will eliminate the benefit of a vaccine of moderate efficacy (E = 0.6) unless the probability of infection in the population of interest is very high. With very high vaccine efficacy (E = 0.95), substantial benefit is maintained except in situations where there is a very low probability of infection in the population. If the vaccine efficacy decreases to 0.8, the benefit gets eroded easily with modest risk compensation. Risk compensation may markedly affect the benefit of COVID-19 vaccination, especially if vaccine efficacy in real-life or specific high-risk populations (e.g., nursing home residents) is not very high.John P. A. IoannidisNature PortfolioarticleImmunologic diseases. AllergyRC581-607Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogensRC254-282ENnpj Vaccines, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-5 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Immunologic diseases. Allergy RC581-607 Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens RC254-282
spellingShingle	Immunologic diseases. Allergy RC581-607 Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens RC254-282 John P. A. Ioannidis Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation
description	Abstract People receiving COVID-19 vaccines may subsequently markedly increase their previously suppressed exposure risk. A simple model can evaluate the benefit of vaccination to the vaccinated (index) person and others exposed to that person; and calculate the amount of risk compensation required to eliminate all the benefits or to halve the benefit. As shown, 2.5-fold increase in exposure will eliminate the benefit of a vaccine of moderate efficacy (E = 0.6) unless the probability of infection in the population of interest is very high. With very high vaccine efficacy (E = 0.95), substantial benefit is maintained except in situations where there is a very low probability of infection in the population. If the vaccine efficacy decreases to 0.8, the benefit gets eroded easily with modest risk compensation. Risk compensation may markedly affect the benefit of COVID-19 vaccination, especially if vaccine efficacy in real-life or specific high-risk populations (e.g., nursing home residents) is not very high.
format	article
author	John P. A. Ioannidis
author_facet	John P. A. Ioannidis
author_sort	John P. A. Ioannidis
title	Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation
title_short	Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation
title_full	Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation
title_fullStr	Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation
title_full_unstemmed	Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation
title_sort	benefit of covid-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6d2de73701fa42be9c8a804f790eb33b
work_keys_str_mv	AT johnpaioannidis benefitofcovid19vaccinationaccountingforpotentialriskcompensation
_version_	1718388064186793984

Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation

Ejemplares similares