Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City

The present analysis uses the data of confirmed incidence of dengue cases in the metropolitan region of Panama from 1999 to 2017 and climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) during the same period to determine if there exists a correlation between these variables. I...

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Autores principales:	Vicente Navarro Valencia, Yamilka Díaz, Juan Miguel Pascale, Maciej F. Boni, Javier E. Sanchez-Galan
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	dengue time series climatic variables correlation prediction SARIMA Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6d3e6c9feb524520bdfc8a8b28fbbc83
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6d3e6c9feb524520bdfc8a8b28fbbc832021-11-25T17:51:11ZAssessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City10.3390/ijerph1822121081660-46011661-7827https://doaj.org/article/6d3e6c9feb524520bdfc8a8b28fbbc832021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/22/12108https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601The present analysis uses the data of confirmed incidence of dengue cases in the metropolitan region of Panama from 1999 to 2017 and climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) during the same period to determine if there exists a correlation between these variables. In addition, we compare the predictive performance of two regression models (SARIMA, SARIMAX) and a recurrent neural network model (RNN-LSTM) on the dengue incidence series. For this data from 1999–2014 was used for training and the three subsequent years of incidence 2015–2017 were used for prediction. The results show a correlation coefficient between the climatic variables and the incidence of dengue were low but statistical significant. The RMSE and MAPE obtained for the SARIMAX and RNN-LSTM models were 25.76, 108.44 and 26.16, 59.68, which suggest that any of these models can be used to predict new outbreaks. Although, it can be said that there is a limited role of climatic variables in the outputs the models. The value of this work is that it helps understand the behaviour of cases in a tropical setting as is the Metropolitan Region of Panama City, and provides the basis needed for a much needed early alert system for the region.Vicente Navarro ValenciaYamilka DíazJuan Miguel PascaleMaciej F. BoniJavier E. Sanchez-GalanMDPI AGarticledenguetime seriesclimatic variablescorrelationpredictionSARIMAMedicineRENInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 18, Iss 12108, p 12108 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	dengue time series climatic variables correlation prediction SARIMA Medicine R
spellingShingle	dengue time series climatic variables correlation prediction SARIMA Medicine R Vicente Navarro Valencia Yamilka Díaz Juan Miguel Pascale Maciej F. Boni Javier E. Sanchez-Galan Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City
description	The present analysis uses the data of confirmed incidence of dengue cases in the metropolitan region of Panama from 1999 to 2017 and climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) during the same period to determine if there exists a correlation between these variables. In addition, we compare the predictive performance of two regression models (SARIMA, SARIMAX) and a recurrent neural network model (RNN-LSTM) on the dengue incidence series. For this data from 1999–2014 was used for training and the three subsequent years of incidence 2015–2017 were used for prediction. The results show a correlation coefficient between the climatic variables and the incidence of dengue were low but statistical significant. The RMSE and MAPE obtained for the SARIMAX and RNN-LSTM models were 25.76, 108.44 and 26.16, 59.68, which suggest that any of these models can be used to predict new outbreaks. Although, it can be said that there is a limited role of climatic variables in the outputs the models. The value of this work is that it helps understand the behaviour of cases in a tropical setting as is the Metropolitan Region of Panama City, and provides the basis needed for a much needed early alert system for the region.
format	article
author	Vicente Navarro Valencia Yamilka Díaz Juan Miguel Pascale Maciej F. Boni Javier E. Sanchez-Galan
author_facet	Vicente Navarro Valencia Yamilka Díaz Juan Miguel Pascale Maciej F. Boni Javier E. Sanchez-Galan
author_sort	Vicente Navarro Valencia
title	Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City
title_short	Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City
title_full	Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City
title_fullStr	Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City
title_full_unstemmed	Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City
title_sort	assessing the effect of climate variables on the incidence of dengue cases in the metropolitan region of panama city
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6d3e6c9feb524520bdfc8a8b28fbbc83
work_keys_str_mv	AT vicentenavarrovalencia assessingtheeffectofclimatevariablesontheincidenceofdenguecasesinthemetropolitanregionofpanamacity AT yamilkadiaz assessingtheeffectofclimatevariablesontheincidenceofdenguecasesinthemetropolitanregionofpanamacity AT juanmiguelpascale assessingtheeffectofclimatevariablesontheincidenceofdenguecasesinthemetropolitanregionofpanamacity AT maciejfboni assessingtheeffectofclimatevariablesontheincidenceofdenguecasesinthemetropolitanregionofpanamacity AT javieresanchezgalan assessingtheeffectofclimatevariablesontheincidenceofdenguecasesinthemetropolitanregionofpanamacity
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Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City

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