Seasonal climate forecast can inform the European agricultural sector well in advance of harvesting

Abstract Seasonal climate forecasts are a key component of sectoral climate services. Skill and reliability in predicting agro-climate indicators, co-designed with and for European wheat farmers, are here assessed. The main findings show how seasonal climate forecast provides useful information for...

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Autores principales:	Andrej Ceglar, Andrea Toreti
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6de6f27b398044be85077750f7210614
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6de6f27b398044be85077750f72106142021-12-02T16:36:37ZSeasonal climate forecast can inform the European agricultural sector well in advance of harvesting10.1038/s41612-021-00198-32397-3722https://doaj.org/article/6de6f27b398044be85077750f72106142021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00198-3https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract Seasonal climate forecasts are a key component of sectoral climate services. Skill and reliability in predicting agro-climate indicators, co-designed with and for European wheat farmers, are here assessed. The main findings show how seasonal climate forecast provides useful information for decision-making processes in the European winter wheat-producing sector. Flowering time can be reliably predicted already at the beginning of the growing season in central and eastern Europe, thus supporting effective variety selection and timely planning of agro-management practices. The predictability of climate events relevant for winter wheat production is strongly dependent on the forecast initialization time as well as the nature of the event being predicted. Overall, regionally skillful and reliable predictions of drought events during the sensitive periods of wheat flowering and grain filling can be made already at the end of winter. On the contrary, predicting excessive wetness seems to be very challenging as no or very limited skill is estimated during the entire wheat growing season. Other approaches, e.g., linked to the use of large-scale atmospheric patterns, should be identified to enhance the predictability of those harmful events.Andrej CeglarAndrea ToretiNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Andrej Ceglar Andrea Toreti Seasonal climate forecast can inform the European agricultural sector well in advance of harvesting
description	Abstract Seasonal climate forecasts are a key component of sectoral climate services. Skill and reliability in predicting agro-climate indicators, co-designed with and for European wheat farmers, are here assessed. The main findings show how seasonal climate forecast provides useful information for decision-making processes in the European winter wheat-producing sector. Flowering time can be reliably predicted already at the beginning of the growing season in central and eastern Europe, thus supporting effective variety selection and timely planning of agro-management practices. The predictability of climate events relevant for winter wheat production is strongly dependent on the forecast initialization time as well as the nature of the event being predicted. Overall, regionally skillful and reliable predictions of drought events during the sensitive periods of wheat flowering and grain filling can be made already at the end of winter. On the contrary, predicting excessive wetness seems to be very challenging as no or very limited skill is estimated during the entire wheat growing season. Other approaches, e.g., linked to the use of large-scale atmospheric patterns, should be identified to enhance the predictability of those harmful events.
format	article
author	Andrej Ceglar Andrea Toreti
author_facet	Andrej Ceglar Andrea Toreti
author_sort	Andrej Ceglar
title	Seasonal climate forecast can inform the European agricultural sector well in advance of harvesting
title_short	Seasonal climate forecast can inform the European agricultural sector well in advance of harvesting
title_full	Seasonal climate forecast can inform the European agricultural sector well in advance of harvesting
title_fullStr	Seasonal climate forecast can inform the European agricultural sector well in advance of harvesting
title_full_unstemmed	Seasonal climate forecast can inform the European agricultural sector well in advance of harvesting
title_sort	seasonal climate forecast can inform the european agricultural sector well in advance of harvesting
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6de6f27b398044be85077750f7210614
work_keys_str_mv	AT andrejceglar seasonalclimateforecastcaninformtheeuropeanagriculturalsectorwellinadvanceofharvesting AT andreatoreti seasonalclimateforecastcaninformtheeuropeanagriculturalsectorwellinadvanceofharvesting
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Seasonal climate forecast can inform the European agricultural sector well in advance of harvesting

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