A modeling study to inform screening and testing interventions for the control of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses

Abstract University administrators face decisions about how to safely return and maintain students, staff and faculty on campus throughout the 2020–21 school year. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) deterministic compartmental transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 among univer...

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Autores principales:	Ben Lopman, Carol Y. Liu, Adrien Le Guillou, Andreas Handel, Timothy L. Lash, Alexander P. Isakov, Samuel M. Jenness
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6ecbc77662bd41a9b5abec9f9234f574
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6ecbc77662bd41a9b5abec9f9234f5742021-12-02T13:18:00ZA modeling study to inform screening and testing interventions for the control of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses10.1038/s41598-021-85252-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/6ecbc77662bd41a9b5abec9f9234f5742021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85252-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract University administrators face decisions about how to safely return and maintain students, staff and faculty on campus throughout the 2020–21 school year. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) deterministic compartmental transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 among university students, staff, and faculty. Our goals were to inform planning at our own university, Emory University, a medium-sized university with around 15,000 students and 15,000 faculty and staff, and to provide a flexible modeling framework to inform the planning efforts at similar academic institutions. Control strategies of isolation and quarantine are initiated by screening (regardless of symptoms) or testing (of symptomatic individuals). We explored a range of screening and testing frequencies and performed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We found that among students, monthly and weekly screening can reduce cumulative incidence by 59% and 87%, respectively, while testing with a 2-, 4- and 7-day delay between onset of infectiousness and testing results in an 84%, 74% and 55% reduction in cumulative incidence. Smaller reductions were observed among staff and faculty. Community-introduction of SARS-CoV-2 onto campus may be controlled with testing, isolation, contract tracing and quarantine. Screening would need to be performed at least weekly to have substantial reductions beyond disease surveillance. This model can also inform resource requirements of diagnostic capacity and isolation/quarantine facilities associated with different strategies.Ben LopmanCarol Y. LiuAdrien Le GuillouAndreas HandelTimothy L. LashAlexander P. IsakovSamuel M. JennessNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Ben Lopman Carol Y. Liu Adrien Le Guillou Andreas Handel Timothy L. Lash Alexander P. Isakov Samuel M. Jenness A modeling study to inform screening and testing interventions for the control of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses
description	Abstract University administrators face decisions about how to safely return and maintain students, staff and faculty on campus throughout the 2020–21 school year. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) deterministic compartmental transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 among university students, staff, and faculty. Our goals were to inform planning at our own university, Emory University, a medium-sized university with around 15,000 students and 15,000 faculty and staff, and to provide a flexible modeling framework to inform the planning efforts at similar academic institutions. Control strategies of isolation and quarantine are initiated by screening (regardless of symptoms) or testing (of symptomatic individuals). We explored a range of screening and testing frequencies and performed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We found that among students, monthly and weekly screening can reduce cumulative incidence by 59% and 87%, respectively, while testing with a 2-, 4- and 7-day delay between onset of infectiousness and testing results in an 84%, 74% and 55% reduction in cumulative incidence. Smaller reductions were observed among staff and faculty. Community-introduction of SARS-CoV-2 onto campus may be controlled with testing, isolation, contract tracing and quarantine. Screening would need to be performed at least weekly to have substantial reductions beyond disease surveillance. This model can also inform resource requirements of diagnostic capacity and isolation/quarantine facilities associated with different strategies.
format	article
author	Ben Lopman Carol Y. Liu Adrien Le Guillou Andreas Handel Timothy L. Lash Alexander P. Isakov Samuel M. Jenness
author_facet	Ben Lopman Carol Y. Liu Adrien Le Guillou Andreas Handel Timothy L. Lash Alexander P. Isakov Samuel M. Jenness
author_sort	Ben Lopman
title	A modeling study to inform screening and testing interventions for the control of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses
title_short	A modeling study to inform screening and testing interventions for the control of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses
title_full	A modeling study to inform screening and testing interventions for the control of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses
title_fullStr	A modeling study to inform screening and testing interventions for the control of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses
title_full_unstemmed	A modeling study to inform screening and testing interventions for the control of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses
title_sort	modeling study to inform screening and testing interventions for the control of sars-cov-2 on university campuses
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6ecbc77662bd41a9b5abec9f9234f574
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A modeling study to inform screening and testing interventions for the control of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses

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