Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation

Abstract Beginning on December 31, 2019, the large-scale novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in China. Tracking and analysing the heterogeneity and effectiveness of cities’ prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic is essential to design and adjust epidemic prevention and control...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Qing Cheng, Zeyi Liu, Guangquan Cheng, Jincai Huang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2020
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6f350c365c3a449384965c52d89cab43
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:6f350c365c3a449384965c52d89cab43
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6f350c365c3a449384965c52d89cab432021-12-02T13:58:14ZHeterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation10.1038/s41598-020-79063-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/6f350c365c3a449384965c52d89cab432020-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79063-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Beginning on December 31, 2019, the large-scale novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in China. Tracking and analysing the heterogeneity and effectiveness of cities’ prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic is essential to design and adjust epidemic prevention and control measures. The number of newly confirmed cases in 25 of China’s most-affected cities for the COVID-19 epidemic from January 11 to February 10 was collected. The heterogeneity and effectiveness of these 25 cities’ prevention and control measures for COVID-19 were analysed by using an estimated time-varying reproduction number method and a serial correlation method. The results showed that the effective reproduction number (R) in 25 cities showed a downward trend overall, but there was a significant difference in the R change trends among cities, indicating that there was heterogeneity in the spread and control of COVID-19 in cities. Moreover, the COVID-19 control in 21 of 25 cities was effective, and the risk of infection decreased because their R had dropped below 1 by February 10, 2020. In contrast, the cities of Wuhan, Tianmen, Ezhou and Enshi still had difficulty effectively controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in a short period of time because their R was greater than 1.Qing ChengZeyi LiuGuangquan ChengJincai HuangNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Qing Cheng Zeyi Liu Guangquan Cheng Jincai Huang Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation
description	Abstract Beginning on December 31, 2019, the large-scale novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in China. Tracking and analysing the heterogeneity and effectiveness of cities’ prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic is essential to design and adjust epidemic prevention and control measures. The number of newly confirmed cases in 25 of China’s most-affected cities for the COVID-19 epidemic from January 11 to February 10 was collected. The heterogeneity and effectiveness of these 25 cities’ prevention and control measures for COVID-19 were analysed by using an estimated time-varying reproduction number method and a serial correlation method. The results showed that the effective reproduction number (R) in 25 cities showed a downward trend overall, but there was a significant difference in the R change trends among cities, indicating that there was heterogeneity in the spread and control of COVID-19 in cities. Moreover, the COVID-19 control in 21 of 25 cities was effective, and the risk of infection decreased because their R had dropped below 1 by February 10, 2020. In contrast, the cities of Wuhan, Tianmen, Ezhou and Enshi still had difficulty effectively controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in a short period of time because their R was greater than 1.
format	article
author	Qing Cheng Zeyi Liu Guangquan Cheng Jincai Huang
author_facet	Qing Cheng Zeyi Liu Guangquan Cheng Jincai Huang
author_sort	Qing Cheng
title	Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation
title_short	Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation
title_full	Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation
title_fullStr	Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation
title_full_unstemmed	Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation
title_sort	heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of covid-19 prevention and control in major cities in china through time-varying reproduction number estimation
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/6f350c365c3a449384965c52d89cab43
work_keys_str_mv	AT qingcheng heterogeneityandeffectivenessanalysisofcovid19preventionandcontrolinmajorcitiesinchinathroughtimevaryingreproductionnumberestimation AT zeyiliu heterogeneityandeffectivenessanalysisofcovid19preventionandcontrolinmajorcitiesinchinathroughtimevaryingreproductionnumberestimation AT guangquancheng heterogeneityandeffectivenessanalysisofcovid19preventionandcontrolinmajorcitiesinchinathroughtimevaryingreproductionnumberestimation AT jincaihuang heterogeneityandeffectivenessanalysisofcovid19preventionandcontrolinmajorcitiesinchinathroughtimevaryingreproductionnumberestimation
_version_	1718392205396148224

Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation

Ejemplares similares