Combining Landscape Fire Simulations with Stand-Level Growth Simulations to Assist Landowners in Building Wildfire-Resilient Landscapes

The wildfire regime in Portugal has been responsible for millions of hectares of burnt area, and Alvares parish is no exception. In 2017, a severe wildfire burnt 60% of its area. Land abandonment has been increasing since the mid 20th century, and a large fraction of the forest area belongs to quasi...

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Autores principales:	Susana Barreiro, Akli Benali, João C. P. Rua, Margarida Tomé, José L. Santos, José M. C. Pereira
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	forest growth simulations forest management wildfire economic analysis landowner types Plant ecology QK900-989
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6f437b92509e4ed99703360a93e54382
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6f437b92509e4ed99703360a93e543822021-11-25T17:37:58ZCombining Landscape Fire Simulations with Stand-Level Growth Simulations to Assist Landowners in Building Wildfire-Resilient Landscapes10.3390/f121114981999-4907https://doaj.org/article/6f437b92509e4ed99703360a93e543822021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/11/1498https://doaj.org/toc/1999-4907The wildfire regime in Portugal has been responsible for millions of hectares of burnt area, and Alvares parish is no exception. In 2017, a severe wildfire burnt 60% of its area. Land abandonment has been increasing since the mid 20th century, and a large fraction of the forest area belongs to quasi-absent landowners. This has given rise to large, almost unbroken expanses of undermanaged forests that, in combination with rugged topography, originates a landscape prone to large, intense wildfires. Thus, a change in landscape composition and structure capable of reducing flammability and promoting fuel discontinuity is urgently needed. A fire spread simulator and a forest growth simulator were combined to show the impact of improving management at landscape level. It was assumed that the probability of large wildfires may be reduced by setting aside forest area for the implementation of a fuel break network (FBN) and increasing the area under sustainable forest management. Three levels of management intensity were simulated by restricting the area of Quasi-absent non-industrial owners to 34.5%, 20.1%, and 8.5% of the Alvares forest area, in favor of increasing the area of active and semi-active non-industrial owners (current, moderate, and high management scenarios). Different FBN extents, representing four levels of network implementation priority were combined with the management levels, resulting in 12 scenarios. To evaluate the impact of fire, simulations assuming no-fire, no-FBN, and current management intensity were performed, whereas the impact of operation costs was assessed assuming reduced costs for silvicultural operations. Per hectare simulations were then scaled up to the parish level and volume harvested and net present values were used to compare the management improvement scenarios. Results showed that fire has major repercussions on forest income, but these impacts can be minimized. Intensifying forest management and implementing the first priority FBN segments originated substantial improvements in financial outcome from timber production, close to those obtained for the full FBN implementation. Results also evidenced contrasting contributions from industrial and non-industrial owners with the later evidencing unbalanced cash-flows derailing the possibility for interesting forest incomes. The coupling of fire and forest growth simulations can be an interesting approach to assess the impact of different management and policy scenarios and inform policies.Susana BarreiroAkli BenaliJoão C. P. RuaMargarida ToméJosé L. SantosJosé M. C. PereiraMDPI AGarticleforest growth simulationsforest managementwildfireeconomic analysislandowner typesPlant ecologyQK900-989ENForests, Vol 12, Iss 1498, p 1498 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	forest growth simulations forest management wildfire economic analysis landowner types Plant ecology QK900-989
spellingShingle	forest growth simulations forest management wildfire economic analysis landowner types Plant ecology QK900-989 Susana Barreiro Akli Benali João C. P. Rua Margarida Tomé José L. Santos José M. C. Pereira Combining Landscape Fire Simulations with Stand-Level Growth Simulations to Assist Landowners in Building Wildfire-Resilient Landscapes
description	The wildfire regime in Portugal has been responsible for millions of hectares of burnt area, and Alvares parish is no exception. In 2017, a severe wildfire burnt 60% of its area. Land abandonment has been increasing since the mid 20th century, and a large fraction of the forest area belongs to quasi-absent landowners. This has given rise to large, almost unbroken expanses of undermanaged forests that, in combination with rugged topography, originates a landscape prone to large, intense wildfires. Thus, a change in landscape composition and structure capable of reducing flammability and promoting fuel discontinuity is urgently needed. A fire spread simulator and a forest growth simulator were combined to show the impact of improving management at landscape level. It was assumed that the probability of large wildfires may be reduced by setting aside forest area for the implementation of a fuel break network (FBN) and increasing the area under sustainable forest management. Three levels of management intensity were simulated by restricting the area of Quasi-absent non-industrial owners to 34.5%, 20.1%, and 8.5% of the Alvares forest area, in favor of increasing the area of active and semi-active non-industrial owners (current, moderate, and high management scenarios). Different FBN extents, representing four levels of network implementation priority were combined with the management levels, resulting in 12 scenarios. To evaluate the impact of fire, simulations assuming no-fire, no-FBN, and current management intensity were performed, whereas the impact of operation costs was assessed assuming reduced costs for silvicultural operations. Per hectare simulations were then scaled up to the parish level and volume harvested and net present values were used to compare the management improvement scenarios. Results showed that fire has major repercussions on forest income, but these impacts can be minimized. Intensifying forest management and implementing the first priority FBN segments originated substantial improvements in financial outcome from timber production, close to those obtained for the full FBN implementation. Results also evidenced contrasting contributions from industrial and non-industrial owners with the later evidencing unbalanced cash-flows derailing the possibility for interesting forest incomes. The coupling of fire and forest growth simulations can be an interesting approach to assess the impact of different management and policy scenarios and inform policies.
format	article
author	Susana Barreiro Akli Benali João C. P. Rua Margarida Tomé José L. Santos José M. C. Pereira
author_facet	Susana Barreiro Akli Benali João C. P. Rua Margarida Tomé José L. Santos José M. C. Pereira
author_sort	Susana Barreiro
title	Combining Landscape Fire Simulations with Stand-Level Growth Simulations to Assist Landowners in Building Wildfire-Resilient Landscapes
title_short	Combining Landscape Fire Simulations with Stand-Level Growth Simulations to Assist Landowners in Building Wildfire-Resilient Landscapes
title_full	Combining Landscape Fire Simulations with Stand-Level Growth Simulations to Assist Landowners in Building Wildfire-Resilient Landscapes
title_fullStr	Combining Landscape Fire Simulations with Stand-Level Growth Simulations to Assist Landowners in Building Wildfire-Resilient Landscapes
title_full_unstemmed	Combining Landscape Fire Simulations with Stand-Level Growth Simulations to Assist Landowners in Building Wildfire-Resilient Landscapes
title_sort	combining landscape fire simulations with stand-level growth simulations to assist landowners in building wildfire-resilient landscapes
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6f437b92509e4ed99703360a93e54382
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Combining Landscape Fire Simulations with Stand-Level Growth Simulations to Assist Landowners in Building Wildfire-Resilient Landscapes

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