How Does El Niño Affect Predictability Barrier of Its Accompanied Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Event?

The effects of El Niño on the predictability of positive Indian Ocean dipole (pIOD) events are investigated by using the GFDL CM2p1 coupled model from the perspective of error growth. The results show that, under the influence of El Niño, the summer predictability barrier (SPB) for pIOD tends to int...

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Autores principales:	Da Liu, Wansuo Duan, Rong Feng
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	Pacific Ocean Indian Ocean IOD events El Niño initial errors summer predictability barrier Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6f534055f7bd48fbb3db13f408d2026a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6f534055f7bd48fbb3db13f408d2026a2021-11-25T18:03:52ZHow Does El Niño Affect Predictability Barrier of Its Accompanied Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Event?10.3390/jmse91111692077-1312https://doaj.org/article/6f534055f7bd48fbb3db13f408d2026a2021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/9/11/1169https://doaj.org/toc/2077-1312The effects of El Niño on the predictability of positive Indian Ocean dipole (pIOD) events are investigated by using the GFDL CM2p1 coupled model from the perspective of error growth. The results show that, under the influence of El Niño, the summer predictability barrier (SPB) for pIOD tends to intensify and the winter predictability barrier (WPB) is weakened. Since the reason for the weakening of WPB has been explained in a previous study, the present study attempts to explore why the SPB is enhanced. The results demonstrate that the initial sea temperature errors, which are most likely to induce SPB for pIOD with El Niño, possess patterns similar to those for pIOD without El Niño, whose dominant errors concentrate in the tropical Pacific Ocean (PO), with a pattern of negative SST errors occurring in the eastern and central PO and subsurface sea temperature errors being negative in the eastern PO and positive in the western PO. By tracking the development of such initial errors, it is found that the initial errors over PO lead to anomalous westerlies in the southeastern Indian Ocean (IO) through the effect of double-cell Walker circulation. Such westerly anomalies are inhibited by the strongest climatological easterly wind and the southeasterlies related to the pIOD event itself in summer, while they are enhanced by El Niño. This competing effect causes the intensified seasonal variation in latent heat flux, with much less loss in summer under the effect of El Niño. The greater suppression of the loss of latent heat flux favors the positive sea surface temperature (SST) errors developing much faster in the eastern Indian Ocean in summer, and eventually induces an enhanced SPB for pIOD due to El Niño.Da LiuWansuo DuanRong FengMDPI AGarticlePacific OceanIndian OceanIOD eventsEl Niñoinitial errorssummer predictability barrierNaval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineeringVM1-989OceanographyGC1-1581ENJournal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 9, Iss 1169, p 1169 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Pacific Ocean Indian Ocean IOD events El Niño initial errors summer predictability barrier Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581
spellingShingle	Pacific Ocean Indian Ocean IOD events El Niño initial errors summer predictability barrier Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 Da Liu Wansuo Duan Rong Feng How Does El Niño Affect Predictability Barrier of Its Accompanied Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Event?
description	The effects of El Niño on the predictability of positive Indian Ocean dipole (pIOD) events are investigated by using the GFDL CM2p1 coupled model from the perspective of error growth. The results show that, under the influence of El Niño, the summer predictability barrier (SPB) for pIOD tends to intensify and the winter predictability barrier (WPB) is weakened. Since the reason for the weakening of WPB has been explained in a previous study, the present study attempts to explore why the SPB is enhanced. The results demonstrate that the initial sea temperature errors, which are most likely to induce SPB for pIOD with El Niño, possess patterns similar to those for pIOD without El Niño, whose dominant errors concentrate in the tropical Pacific Ocean (PO), with a pattern of negative SST errors occurring in the eastern and central PO and subsurface sea temperature errors being negative in the eastern PO and positive in the western PO. By tracking the development of such initial errors, it is found that the initial errors over PO lead to anomalous westerlies in the southeastern Indian Ocean (IO) through the effect of double-cell Walker circulation. Such westerly anomalies are inhibited by the strongest climatological easterly wind and the southeasterlies related to the pIOD event itself in summer, while they are enhanced by El Niño. This competing effect causes the intensified seasonal variation in latent heat flux, with much less loss in summer under the effect of El Niño. The greater suppression of the loss of latent heat flux favors the positive sea surface temperature (SST) errors developing much faster in the eastern Indian Ocean in summer, and eventually induces an enhanced SPB for pIOD due to El Niño.
format	article
author	Da Liu Wansuo Duan Rong Feng
author_facet	Da Liu Wansuo Duan Rong Feng
author_sort	Da Liu
title	How Does El Niño Affect Predictability Barrier of Its Accompanied Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Event?
title_short	How Does El Niño Affect Predictability Barrier of Its Accompanied Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Event?
title_full	How Does El Niño Affect Predictability Barrier of Its Accompanied Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Event?
title_fullStr	How Does El Niño Affect Predictability Barrier of Its Accompanied Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Event?
title_full_unstemmed	How Does El Niño Affect Predictability Barrier of Its Accompanied Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Event?
title_sort	how does el niño affect predictability barrier of its accompanied positive indian ocean dipole event?
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6f534055f7bd48fbb3db13f408d2026a
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How Does El Niño Affect Predictability Barrier of Its Accompanied Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Event?

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