Integrated flood risk assessment of the Arial Khan River under changing climate using IPCC AR5 risk framework

Bangladesh is situated at the confluence of GBM basins, with 90% of the basin area locating outside the country. Future climate change will lead to intense, prolonged, and frequent floods in Bangladesh. An integrated flood risk assessment that transforms flood risks from transboundary river basins t...

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Autores principales:	Binata Roy, Md. Sabbir Mostafa Khan, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Md. Jamal Uddin Khan, Khaled Mohammed
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	ar5 risk framework climate change exposure flood risk hazard vulnerability Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6f5c7129e004458e9acc30f77c3e925c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6f5c7129e004458e9acc30f77c3e925c2021-11-10T00:00:10ZIntegrated flood risk assessment of the Arial Khan River under changing climate using IPCC AR5 risk framework2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.341https://doaj.org/article/6f5c7129e004458e9acc30f77c3e925c2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/7/3421https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354Bangladesh is situated at the confluence of GBM basins, with 90% of the basin area locating outside the country. Future climate change will lead to intense, prolonged, and frequent floods in Bangladesh. An integrated flood risk assessment that transforms flood risks from transboundary river basins to the local administrative level is necessary. A 1D/2D hydrodynamic model is developed for flood vulnerable Arial Khan River feed by basin-scale hydrologic model for low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) climate scenarios. An increasing trend in flood depth, duration, and area is observed from the early (2020s) to the end (2080s) of the century for both scenarios. The difference between both RCPs is minimal from the 2020s to 2050s but becomes very pronounced in the 2080s. The depth-duration-area with equal weightage provides better hazard results for the area. Flood risk is assessed using the IPCC AR5 framework incorporating vulnerability and exposure. Some medium-hazard zones fall into high-risk zones due to high exposure and vulnerability to flooding. The areas along the left reach are found more hazard-prone, while the areas on the right side are more risk-prone in the 2080s of RCP8.5. The hazard/risk maps will help policymakers identify priority areas for planning a sustainable flood management strategy. HIGHLIGHTS Flood risk is transferred from transboundary river basins to local administrative levels using a multi-model hydrological-hydrodynamic-statistical modelling system.; High-resolution bias-corrected GCM climate data is used.; IPCC AR5 climate scenarios and risk framework are considered.; Future flood hazard and risks are assessed for Arial Khan River Floodplain for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s.; Medium hazard zones might have high flood risk in the future.;Binata RoyMd. Sabbir Mostafa KhanA. K. M. Saiful IslamMd. Jamal Uddin KhanKhaled MohammedIWA Publishingarticlear5 risk frameworkclimate changeexposureflood riskhazardvulnerabilityEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 7, Pp 3421-3447 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	ar5 risk framework climate change exposure flood risk hazard vulnerability Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	ar5 risk framework climate change exposure flood risk hazard vulnerability Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Binata Roy Md. Sabbir Mostafa Khan A. K. M. Saiful Islam Md. Jamal Uddin Khan Khaled Mohammed Integrated flood risk assessment of the Arial Khan River under changing climate using IPCC AR5 risk framework
description	Bangladesh is situated at the confluence of GBM basins, with 90% of the basin area locating outside the country. Future climate change will lead to intense, prolonged, and frequent floods in Bangladesh. An integrated flood risk assessment that transforms flood risks from transboundary river basins to the local administrative level is necessary. A 1D/2D hydrodynamic model is developed for flood vulnerable Arial Khan River feed by basin-scale hydrologic model for low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) climate scenarios. An increasing trend in flood depth, duration, and area is observed from the early (2020s) to the end (2080s) of the century for both scenarios. The difference between both RCPs is minimal from the 2020s to 2050s but becomes very pronounced in the 2080s. The depth-duration-area with equal weightage provides better hazard results for the area. Flood risk is assessed using the IPCC AR5 framework incorporating vulnerability and exposure. Some medium-hazard zones fall into high-risk zones due to high exposure and vulnerability to flooding. The areas along the left reach are found more hazard-prone, while the areas on the right side are more risk-prone in the 2080s of RCP8.5. The hazard/risk maps will help policymakers identify priority areas for planning a sustainable flood management strategy. HIGHLIGHTS Flood risk is transferred from transboundary river basins to local administrative levels using a multi-model hydrological-hydrodynamic-statistical modelling system.; High-resolution bias-corrected GCM climate data is used.; IPCC AR5 climate scenarios and risk framework are considered.; Future flood hazard and risks are assessed for Arial Khan River Floodplain for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s.; Medium hazard zones might have high flood risk in the future.;
format	article
author	Binata Roy Md. Sabbir Mostafa Khan A. K. M. Saiful Islam Md. Jamal Uddin Khan Khaled Mohammed
author_facet	Binata Roy Md. Sabbir Mostafa Khan A. K. M. Saiful Islam Md. Jamal Uddin Khan Khaled Mohammed
author_sort	Binata Roy
title	Integrated flood risk assessment of the Arial Khan River under changing climate using IPCC AR5 risk framework
title_short	Integrated flood risk assessment of the Arial Khan River under changing climate using IPCC AR5 risk framework
title_full	Integrated flood risk assessment of the Arial Khan River under changing climate using IPCC AR5 risk framework
title_fullStr	Integrated flood risk assessment of the Arial Khan River under changing climate using IPCC AR5 risk framework
title_full_unstemmed	Integrated flood risk assessment of the Arial Khan River under changing climate using IPCC AR5 risk framework
title_sort	integrated flood risk assessment of the arial khan river under changing climate using ipcc ar5 risk framework
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6f5c7129e004458e9acc30f77c3e925c
work_keys_str_mv	AT binataroy integratedfloodriskassessmentofthearialkhanriverunderchangingclimateusingipccar5riskframework AT mdsabbirmostafakhan integratedfloodriskassessmentofthearialkhanriverunderchangingclimateusingipccar5riskframework AT akmsaifulislam integratedfloodriskassessmentofthearialkhanriverunderchangingclimateusingipccar5riskframework AT mdjamaluddinkhan integratedfloodriskassessmentofthearialkhanriverunderchangingclimateusingipccar5riskframework AT khaledmohammed integratedfloodriskassessmentofthearialkhanriverunderchangingclimateusingipccar5riskframework
_version_	1718440755578535936

Integrated flood risk assessment of the Arial Khan River under changing climate using IPCC AR5 risk framework

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