Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale.

Understanding and predicting the response of marine communities to climate change at large spatial scales, and distilling this information for policymakers, are prerequisites for ecosystem-based management. Changes in thermal habitat suitability across species' distributions are especially conc...

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Autores principales:	Edward Lavender, Clive J Fox, Michael T Burrows
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/6f99e97c13964f73812407b121f1085c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:6f99e97c13964f73812407b121f1085c2021-12-02T20:13:50ZModelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0258184https://doaj.org/article/6f99e97c13964f73812407b121f1085c2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258184https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Understanding and predicting the response of marine communities to climate change at large spatial scales, and distilling this information for policymakers, are prerequisites for ecosystem-based management. Changes in thermal habitat suitability across species' distributions are especially concerning because of their implications for abundance, affecting species' conservation, trophic interactions and fisheries. However, most predictive studies of the effects of climate change have tended to be sub-global in scale and focused on shifts in species' range edges or commercially exploited species. Here, we develop a widely applicable methodology based on climate response curves to predict global-scale changes in thermal habitat suitability. We apply the approach across the distributions of 2,293 shallow-water fish species under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 by 2050-2100. We find a clear pattern of predicted declines in thermal habitat suitability in the tropics versus general increases at higher latitudes. The Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean and western Africa emerge as the areas of most concern, where high species richness and the strongest declines in thermal habitat suitability coincide. This reflects a pattern of consistently narrow thermal ranges, with most species in these regions already exposed to temperatures above inferred thermal optima. In contrast, in temperate regions, such as northern Europe, where most species live below thermal optima and thermal ranges are wider, positive changes in thermal habitat suitability suggest that these areas are likely to emerge as the greatest beneficiaries of climate change, despite strong predicted temperature increases.Edward LavenderClive J FoxMichael T BurrowsPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 10, p e0258184 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Edward Lavender Clive J Fox Michael T Burrows Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale.
description	Understanding and predicting the response of marine communities to climate change at large spatial scales, and distilling this information for policymakers, are prerequisites for ecosystem-based management. Changes in thermal habitat suitability across species' distributions are especially concerning because of their implications for abundance, affecting species' conservation, trophic interactions and fisheries. However, most predictive studies of the effects of climate change have tended to be sub-global in scale and focused on shifts in species' range edges or commercially exploited species. Here, we develop a widely applicable methodology based on climate response curves to predict global-scale changes in thermal habitat suitability. We apply the approach across the distributions of 2,293 shallow-water fish species under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 by 2050-2100. We find a clear pattern of predicted declines in thermal habitat suitability in the tropics versus general increases at higher latitudes. The Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean and western Africa emerge as the areas of most concern, where high species richness and the strongest declines in thermal habitat suitability coincide. This reflects a pattern of consistently narrow thermal ranges, with most species in these regions already exposed to temperatures above inferred thermal optima. In contrast, in temperate regions, such as northern Europe, where most species live below thermal optima and thermal ranges are wider, positive changes in thermal habitat suitability suggest that these areas are likely to emerge as the greatest beneficiaries of climate change, despite strong predicted temperature increases.
format	article
author	Edward Lavender Clive J Fox Michael T Burrows
author_facet	Edward Lavender Clive J Fox Michael T Burrows
author_sort	Edward Lavender
title	Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale.
title_short	Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale.
title_full	Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale.
title_fullStr	Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale.
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale.
title_sort	modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/6f99e97c13964f73812407b121f1085c
work_keys_str_mv	AT edwardlavender modellingtheimpactsofclimatechangeonthermalhabitatsuitabilityforshallowwatermarinefishataglobalscale AT clivejfox modellingtheimpactsofclimatechangeonthermalhabitatsuitabilityforshallowwatermarinefishataglobalscale AT michaeltburrows modellingtheimpactsofclimatechangeonthermalhabitatsuitabilityforshallowwatermarinefishataglobalscale
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Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale.

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