Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts

Abstract Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic ch...

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Autores principales:	J. García Molinos, M. T. Burrows, E. S. Poloczanska
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7110db94830c4eb2be109ae45210d3f7
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:7110db94830c4eb2be109ae45210d3f7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7110db94830c4eb2be109ae45210d3f72021-12-02T12:32:39ZOcean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts10.1038/s41598-017-01309-y2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/7110db94830c4eb2be109ae45210d3f72017-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01309-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.J. García MolinosM. T. BurrowsE. S. PoloczanskaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q J. García Molinos M. T. Burrows E. S. Poloczanska Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts
description	Abstract Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.
format	article
author	J. García Molinos M. T. Burrows E. S. Poloczanska
author_facet	J. García Molinos M. T. Burrows E. S. Poloczanska
author_sort	J. García Molinos
title	Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts
title_short	Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts
title_full	Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts
title_fullStr	Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts
title_full_unstemmed	Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts
title_sort	ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/7110db94830c4eb2be109ae45210d3f7
work_keys_str_mv	AT jgarciamolinos oceancurrentsmodifythecouplingbetweenclimatechangeandbiogeographicalshifts AT mtburrows oceancurrentsmodifythecouplingbetweenclimatechangeandbiogeographicalshifts AT espoloczanska oceancurrentsmodifythecouplingbetweenclimatechangeandbiogeographicalshifts
_version_	1718393985181941760

Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts

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