Global civil unrest: contagion, self-organization, and prediction.

Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of universal p...

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Autor principal:	Dan Braha
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/713c2d3a767b468788064cbe8426196d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:713c2d3a767b468788064cbe8426196d2021-11-18T08:10:19ZGlobal civil unrest: contagion, self-organization, and prediction.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0048596https://doaj.org/article/713c2d3a767b468788064cbe8426196d2012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23119067/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of universal patterns of behavior. In contrast, the possibility that civil unrest activities, across countries and over long time periods, are governed by universal mechanisms has not been explored. Here, records of civil unrest of 170 countries during the period 1919-2008 are analyzed. It is demonstrated that the distributions of the number of unrest events per year are robustly reproduced by a nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical model, which reflects the spread of civil disorder between geographic regions connected through social and communication networks. The results also expose the similarity between global social instability and the dynamics of natural hazards and epidemics.Dan BrahaPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 10, p e48596 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Dan Braha Global civil unrest: contagion, self-organization, and prediction.
description	Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of universal patterns of behavior. In contrast, the possibility that civil unrest activities, across countries and over long time periods, are governed by universal mechanisms has not been explored. Here, records of civil unrest of 170 countries during the period 1919-2008 are analyzed. It is demonstrated that the distributions of the number of unrest events per year are robustly reproduced by a nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical model, which reflects the spread of civil disorder between geographic regions connected through social and communication networks. The results also expose the similarity between global social instability and the dynamics of natural hazards and epidemics.
format	article
author	Dan Braha
author_facet	Dan Braha
author_sort	Dan Braha
title	Global civil unrest: contagion, self-organization, and prediction.
title_short	Global civil unrest: contagion, self-organization, and prediction.
title_full	Global civil unrest: contagion, self-organization, and prediction.
title_fullStr	Global civil unrest: contagion, self-organization, and prediction.
title_full_unstemmed	Global civil unrest: contagion, self-organization, and prediction.
title_sort	global civil unrest: contagion, self-organization, and prediction.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/713c2d3a767b468788064cbe8426196d
work_keys_str_mv	AT danbraha globalcivilunrestcontagionselforganizationandprediction
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Global civil unrest: contagion, self-organization, and prediction.

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