Expected Recurrence of Extreme Winds in Northwestern Sahara and Associated Uncertainties

Estimating the probability of the occurrence of hazardous winds is crucial for their impact in human activities; however, this is inherently affected by the shortage of observations. This becomes critical in poorly sampled regions, such as the northwestern Sahara, where this work is focused. The sel...

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Autores principales:	Elena García Bustamante, J. Fidel González Rouco, Jorge Navarro, Etor E. Lucio Eceiza, Cristina Rojas Labanda
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	wind extremes methodological uncertainty wind return levels Generalized Extreme Value Distribution regional simulation northwestern Sahara Technology T
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/71458ed4816146038881e6d2a46854ec
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:71458ed4816146038881e6d2a46854ec2021-11-11T15:44:59ZExpected Recurrence of Extreme Winds in Northwestern Sahara and Associated Uncertainties10.3390/en142169131996-1073https://doaj.org/article/71458ed4816146038881e6d2a46854ec2021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/21/6913https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073Estimating the probability of the occurrence of hazardous winds is crucial for their impact in human activities; however, this is inherently affected by the shortage of observations. This becomes critical in poorly sampled regions, such as the northwestern Sahara, where this work is focused. The selection of any single methodological variant contributes with additional uncertainty. To gain robustness in the estimates, we expand the uncertainty space by applying a large body of methodologies. The methodological uncertainty is constrained afterward by keeping only the reliable experiments. In doing so, we considerably narrow the uncertainty associated with the wind return levels. The analysis suggest that not necessarily all methodologies are equally robust. The highest 10-min speed (wind gust) for a return period of 50 years is about 45 ms<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> (56 ms<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula>). The intensity of the expected extreme winds is closely related to orography. The study is based on wind and wind gust observations that were collected and quality controlled for the specific purposes herein. We also make use of a 12-year high-resolution regional simulation to provide simulation-based wind return level maps that endorse the observation-based results. Such an exhaustive methodological sensitivity analysis with a long high-resolution simulation over this region was lacking in the literature.Elena García BustamanteJ. Fidel González RoucoJorge NavarroEtor E. Lucio EceizaCristina Rojas LabandaMDPI AGarticlewind extremesmethodological uncertaintywind return levelsGeneralized Extreme Value Distributionregional simulationnorthwestern SaharaTechnologyTENEnergies, Vol 14, Iss 6913, p 6913 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	wind extremes methodological uncertainty wind return levels Generalized Extreme Value Distribution regional simulation northwestern Sahara Technology T
spellingShingle	wind extremes methodological uncertainty wind return levels Generalized Extreme Value Distribution regional simulation northwestern Sahara Technology T Elena García Bustamante J. Fidel González Rouco Jorge Navarro Etor E. Lucio Eceiza Cristina Rojas Labanda Expected Recurrence of Extreme Winds in Northwestern Sahara and Associated Uncertainties
description	Estimating the probability of the occurrence of hazardous winds is crucial for their impact in human activities; however, this is inherently affected by the shortage of observations. This becomes critical in poorly sampled regions, such as the northwestern Sahara, where this work is focused. The selection of any single methodological variant contributes with additional uncertainty. To gain robustness in the estimates, we expand the uncertainty space by applying a large body of methodologies. The methodological uncertainty is constrained afterward by keeping only the reliable experiments. In doing so, we considerably narrow the uncertainty associated with the wind return levels. The analysis suggest that not necessarily all methodologies are equally robust. The highest 10-min speed (wind gust) for a return period of 50 years is about 45 ms<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> (56 ms<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula>). The intensity of the expected extreme winds is closely related to orography. The study is based on wind and wind gust observations that were collected and quality controlled for the specific purposes herein. We also make use of a 12-year high-resolution regional simulation to provide simulation-based wind return level maps that endorse the observation-based results. Such an exhaustive methodological sensitivity analysis with a long high-resolution simulation over this region was lacking in the literature.
format	article
author	Elena García Bustamante J. Fidel González Rouco Jorge Navarro Etor E. Lucio Eceiza Cristina Rojas Labanda
author_facet	Elena García Bustamante J. Fidel González Rouco Jorge Navarro Etor E. Lucio Eceiza Cristina Rojas Labanda
author_sort	Elena García Bustamante
title	Expected Recurrence of Extreme Winds in Northwestern Sahara and Associated Uncertainties
title_short	Expected Recurrence of Extreme Winds in Northwestern Sahara and Associated Uncertainties
title_full	Expected Recurrence of Extreme Winds in Northwestern Sahara and Associated Uncertainties
title_fullStr	Expected Recurrence of Extreme Winds in Northwestern Sahara and Associated Uncertainties
title_full_unstemmed	Expected Recurrence of Extreme Winds in Northwestern Sahara and Associated Uncertainties
title_sort	expected recurrence of extreme winds in northwestern sahara and associated uncertainties
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/71458ed4816146038881e6d2a46854ec
work_keys_str_mv	AT elenagarciabustamante expectedrecurrenceofextremewindsinnorthwesternsaharaandassociateduncertainties AT jfidelgonzalezrouco expectedrecurrenceofextremewindsinnorthwesternsaharaandassociateduncertainties AT jorgenavarro expectedrecurrenceofextremewindsinnorthwesternsaharaandassociateduncertainties AT etorelucioeceiza expectedrecurrenceofextremewindsinnorthwesternsaharaandassociateduncertainties AT cristinarojaslabanda expectedrecurrenceofextremewindsinnorthwesternsaharaandassociateduncertainties
_version_	1718434089775661056

Expected Recurrence of Extreme Winds in Northwestern Sahara and Associated Uncertainties

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