Development tendency analysis for the water resource carrying capacity based on system dynamics model and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the Changchun city, China

Water resource carrying capacity describes the relationship between different systems such as the socio-economic, water environment, and water resources systems. Recent studies tend to focus on the qualitative description of water resource carrying capacity, with a lack of quantitative research on t...

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Autores principales:	Ge Wang, Changlai Xiao, Zhiwei Qi, Fanao Meng, Xiujuan Liang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Water resource carrying capacity System dynamics model Improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method Analytic hierarchy process Scenario simulation Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7157b8311f0b4327bdc87daf5ea31131
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7157b8311f0b4327bdc87daf5ea311312021-12-01T04:39:47ZDevelopment tendency analysis for the water resource carrying capacity based on system dynamics model and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the Changchun city, China1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107232https://doaj.org/article/7157b8311f0b4327bdc87daf5ea311312021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X20311717https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XWater resource carrying capacity describes the relationship between different systems such as the socio-economic, water environment, and water resources systems. Recent studies tend to focus on the qualitative description of water resource carrying capacity, with a lack of quantitative research on the topic. This study proposes an improved water resource carrying capacity assessment method based on combining the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the system dynamics model, enabling the quantitative and qualitative measurement of water resource carrying capacity. This method can dynamically compute the water resource carrying capacity under different social development scenarios through the feedback regulation and system simulation of social economy–water resources and the water environment interactions. A comprehensive assessment of trends from six scenarios between 2018 and 2025 was conducted, based on scenarios designed for different purposes. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to decline and remain at a low level of “normal carrying” (0.431 in 2025). However, the water resource carrying capacity in Changchun may improve by changing the production mode of the national economy and adjusting the proportion of the economy. Rationally allocating water resources and strengthening water ecological protections can significantly increase the water resource carrying capacity and maintain it at “positive carrying”, while maintaining steady economic and social growth.Ge WangChanglai XiaoZhiwei QiFanao MengXiujuan LiangElsevierarticleWater resource carrying capacitySystem dynamics modelImproved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methodAnalytic hierarchy processScenario simulationEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 122, Iss , Pp 107232- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Water resource carrying capacity System dynamics model Improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method Analytic hierarchy process Scenario simulation Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Water resource carrying capacity System dynamics model Improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method Analytic hierarchy process Scenario simulation Ecology QH540-549.5 Ge Wang Changlai Xiao Zhiwei Qi Fanao Meng Xiujuan Liang Development tendency analysis for the water resource carrying capacity based on system dynamics model and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the Changchun city, China
description	Water resource carrying capacity describes the relationship between different systems such as the socio-economic, water environment, and water resources systems. Recent studies tend to focus on the qualitative description of water resource carrying capacity, with a lack of quantitative research on the topic. This study proposes an improved water resource carrying capacity assessment method based on combining the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the system dynamics model, enabling the quantitative and qualitative measurement of water resource carrying capacity. This method can dynamically compute the water resource carrying capacity under different social development scenarios through the feedback regulation and system simulation of social economy–water resources and the water environment interactions. A comprehensive assessment of trends from six scenarios between 2018 and 2025 was conducted, based on scenarios designed for different purposes. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to decline and remain at a low level of “normal carrying” (0.431 in 2025). However, the water resource carrying capacity in Changchun may improve by changing the production mode of the national economy and adjusting the proportion of the economy. Rationally allocating water resources and strengthening water ecological protections can significantly increase the water resource carrying capacity and maintain it at “positive carrying”, while maintaining steady economic and social growth.
format	article
author	Ge Wang Changlai Xiao Zhiwei Qi Fanao Meng Xiujuan Liang
author_facet	Ge Wang Changlai Xiao Zhiwei Qi Fanao Meng Xiujuan Liang
author_sort	Ge Wang
title	Development tendency analysis for the water resource carrying capacity based on system dynamics model and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the Changchun city, China
title_short	Development tendency analysis for the water resource carrying capacity based on system dynamics model and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the Changchun city, China
title_full	Development tendency analysis for the water resource carrying capacity based on system dynamics model and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the Changchun city, China
title_fullStr	Development tendency analysis for the water resource carrying capacity based on system dynamics model and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the Changchun city, China
title_full_unstemmed	Development tendency analysis for the water resource carrying capacity based on system dynamics model and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the Changchun city, China
title_sort	development tendency analysis for the water resource carrying capacity based on system dynamics model and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the changchun city, china
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7157b8311f0b4327bdc87daf5ea31131
work_keys_str_mv	AT gewang developmenttendencyanalysisforthewaterresourcecarryingcapacitybasedonsystemdynamicsmodelandtheimprovedfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethodinthechangchuncitychina AT changlaixiao developmenttendencyanalysisforthewaterresourcecarryingcapacitybasedonsystemdynamicsmodelandtheimprovedfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethodinthechangchuncitychina AT zhiweiqi developmenttendencyanalysisforthewaterresourcecarryingcapacitybasedonsystemdynamicsmodelandtheimprovedfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethodinthechangchuncitychina AT fanaomeng developmenttendencyanalysisforthewaterresourcecarryingcapacitybasedonsystemdynamicsmodelandtheimprovedfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethodinthechangchuncitychina AT xiujuanliang developmenttendencyanalysisforthewaterresourcecarryingcapacitybasedonsystemdynamicsmodelandtheimprovedfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethodinthechangchuncitychina
_version_	1718405811651215360

Development tendency analysis for the water resource carrying capacity based on system dynamics model and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the Changchun city, China

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