Anticipating urbanization-led land cover change and its impact on local climate using time series model: a study on Dhaka city

Urbanization-led changes in natural landscape often result in environmental degradation and subsequently contribute to local climate variability. Therefore, apart from global climate change, Dhaka city’s ongoing rapid urban growth may result in altering future local climate patterns significantly....

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Autor principal:	Ripan Debnath
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	The White Horse Press 2020
Materias:	urbanization land cover climate change time series model Dhaka city Environmental sciences GE1-350 Demography. Population. Vital events HB848-3697
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/721d21edd32c4ec3a7af837865f6b3d5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:721d21edd32c4ec3a7af837865f6b3d52021-12-02T19:03:33ZAnticipating urbanization-led land cover change and its impact on local climate using time series model: a study on Dhaka city10.3197/jps.2020.4.2.452398-54882398-5496https://doaj.org/article/721d21edd32c4ec3a7af837865f6b3d52020-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.whp-journals.co.uk/JPS/article/view/649https://doaj.org/toc/2398-5488https://doaj.org/toc/2398-5496 Urbanization-led changes in natural landscape often result in environmental degradation and subsequently contribute to local climate variability. Therefore, apart from global climate change, Dhaka city’s ongoing rapid urban growth may result in altering future local climate patterns significantly. This study explores transition relationships between urbanization (population), land cover, and climate (temperature) of Dhaka city beginning in 1975 through to forecast scenarios up to 2035. Satellite image, geographic, demographic, and climatic data were analyzed. Change in core urban land cover (area) was regarded as a function of population growth and was modeled using linear regression technique. The study developed and validated a time series (ARIMA) model for predicting mean maximum temperature change where (forecasted) land cover scenarios were regressors. Throughout the studied period, the city exhibited an increasing urbanization trend that indicated persistent growth of core urban land cover in future. As a result, the city’s mean maximum temperature was found likely to increase by around 1.5-degree Celsius during 2016–2035 on average from that of observed 1996–2015 period. It is expected that findings of this study may help in recognizing urbanization-led climate change easily, which is crucial to effective climate change management actions and urban planning. Ripan DebnathThe White Horse Pressarticleurbanizationland coverclimate changetime series modelDhaka cityEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Demography. Population. Vital eventsHB848-3697ENThe Journal of Population and Sustainability, Vol 4, Iss 2 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	urbanization land cover climate change time series model Dhaka city Environmental sciences GE1-350 Demography. Population. Vital events HB848-3697
spellingShingle	urbanization land cover climate change time series model Dhaka city Environmental sciences GE1-350 Demography. Population. Vital events HB848-3697 Ripan Debnath Anticipating urbanization-led land cover change and its impact on local climate using time series model: a study on Dhaka city
description	Urbanization-led changes in natural landscape often result in environmental degradation and subsequently contribute to local climate variability. Therefore, apart from global climate change, Dhaka city’s ongoing rapid urban growth may result in altering future local climate patterns significantly. This study explores transition relationships between urbanization (population), land cover, and climate (temperature) of Dhaka city beginning in 1975 through to forecast scenarios up to 2035. Satellite image, geographic, demographic, and climatic data were analyzed. Change in core urban land cover (area) was regarded as a function of population growth and was modeled using linear regression technique. The study developed and validated a time series (ARIMA) model for predicting mean maximum temperature change where (forecasted) land cover scenarios were regressors. Throughout the studied period, the city exhibited an increasing urbanization trend that indicated persistent growth of core urban land cover in future. As a result, the city’s mean maximum temperature was found likely to increase by around 1.5-degree Celsius during 2016–2035 on average from that of observed 1996–2015 period. It is expected that findings of this study may help in recognizing urbanization-led climate change easily, which is crucial to effective climate change management actions and urban planning.
format	article
author	Ripan Debnath
author_facet	Ripan Debnath
author_sort	Ripan Debnath
title	Anticipating urbanization-led land cover change and its impact on local climate using time series model: a study on Dhaka city
title_short	Anticipating urbanization-led land cover change and its impact on local climate using time series model: a study on Dhaka city
title_full	Anticipating urbanization-led land cover change and its impact on local climate using time series model: a study on Dhaka city
title_fullStr	Anticipating urbanization-led land cover change and its impact on local climate using time series model: a study on Dhaka city
title_full_unstemmed	Anticipating urbanization-led land cover change and its impact on local climate using time series model: a study on Dhaka city
title_sort	anticipating urbanization-led land cover change and its impact on local climate using time series model: a study on dhaka city
publisher	The White Horse Press
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/721d21edd32c4ec3a7af837865f6b3d5
work_keys_str_mv	AT ripandebnath anticipatingurbanizationledlandcoverchangeanditsimpactonlocalclimateusingtimeseriesmodelastudyondhakacity
_version_	1718377216540147712

Anticipating urbanization-led land cover change and its impact on local climate using time series model: a study on Dhaka city

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