Development of mortality prediction model in the elderly hospitalized AKI patients

Abstract Acute kidney injury (AKI) correlates with increased health-care costs and poor outcomes in older adults. However, there is no good scoring system to predict mortality within 30-day, 1-year after AKI in older adults. We performed a retrospective analysis screening data of 53,944 hospitalized...

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Autores principales:	Jing-Cheng Peng, Ting Wu, Xi Wu, Ping Yan, Yi-Xin Kang, Yu Liu, Ning-Ya Zhang, Qian Liu, Hong-Shen Wang, Ying-Hao Deng, Mei Wang, Xiao-Qin Luo, Shao-Bin Duan
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7225be3bb4364afcb9282912bab89ddc
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7225be3bb4364afcb9282912bab89ddc2021-12-02T16:31:48ZDevelopment of mortality prediction model in the elderly hospitalized AKI patients10.1038/s41598-021-94271-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/7225be3bb4364afcb9282912bab89ddc2021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94271-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Acute kidney injury (AKI) correlates with increased health-care costs and poor outcomes in older adults. However, there is no good scoring system to predict mortality within 30-day, 1-year after AKI in older adults. We performed a retrospective analysis screening data of 53,944 hospitalized elderly patients (age > 65 years) from multi-centers in China. 944 patients with AKI (acute kidney disease) were included and followed up for 1 year. Multivariable regression analysis was used for developing scoring models in the test group (a randomly 70% of all the patients). The established models have been verified in the validation group (a randomly 30% of all the patients). Model 1 that consisted of the risk factors for death within 30 days after AKI had accurate discrimination (The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, AUROC: 0.90 (95% CI 0.875–0.932)) in the test group, and performed well in the validation groups (AUROC: 0.907 (95% CI 0.865–0.949)). The scoring formula of all-cause death within 1 year (model 2) is a seven-variable model including AKI type, solid tumor, renal replacement therapy, acute myocardial infarction, mechanical ventilation, the number of organ failures, and proteinuria. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves of model 2 was > 0.80 both in the test and validation groups. Our newly established risk models can well predict the risk of all-cause death in older hospitalized AKI patients within 30 days or 1 year.Jing-Cheng PengTing WuXi WuPing YanYi-Xin KangYu LiuNing-Ya ZhangQian LiuHong-Shen WangYing-Hao DengMei WangXiao-Qin LuoShao-Bin DuanNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jing-Cheng Peng Ting Wu Xi Wu Ping Yan Yi-Xin Kang Yu Liu Ning-Ya Zhang Qian Liu Hong-Shen Wang Ying-Hao Deng Mei Wang Xiao-Qin Luo Shao-Bin Duan Development of mortality prediction model in the elderly hospitalized AKI patients
description	Abstract Acute kidney injury (AKI) correlates with increased health-care costs and poor outcomes in older adults. However, there is no good scoring system to predict mortality within 30-day, 1-year after AKI in older adults. We performed a retrospective analysis screening data of 53,944 hospitalized elderly patients (age > 65 years) from multi-centers in China. 944 patients with AKI (acute kidney disease) were included and followed up for 1 year. Multivariable regression analysis was used for developing scoring models in the test group (a randomly 70% of all the patients). The established models have been verified in the validation group (a randomly 30% of all the patients). Model 1 that consisted of the risk factors for death within 30 days after AKI had accurate discrimination (The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, AUROC: 0.90 (95% CI 0.875–0.932)) in the test group, and performed well in the validation groups (AUROC: 0.907 (95% CI 0.865–0.949)). The scoring formula of all-cause death within 1 year (model 2) is a seven-variable model including AKI type, solid tumor, renal replacement therapy, acute myocardial infarction, mechanical ventilation, the number of organ failures, and proteinuria. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves of model 2 was > 0.80 both in the test and validation groups. Our newly established risk models can well predict the risk of all-cause death in older hospitalized AKI patients within 30 days or 1 year.
format	article
author	Jing-Cheng Peng Ting Wu Xi Wu Ping Yan Yi-Xin Kang Yu Liu Ning-Ya Zhang Qian Liu Hong-Shen Wang Ying-Hao Deng Mei Wang Xiao-Qin Luo Shao-Bin Duan
author_facet	Jing-Cheng Peng Ting Wu Xi Wu Ping Yan Yi-Xin Kang Yu Liu Ning-Ya Zhang Qian Liu Hong-Shen Wang Ying-Hao Deng Mei Wang Xiao-Qin Luo Shao-Bin Duan
author_sort	Jing-Cheng Peng
title	Development of mortality prediction model in the elderly hospitalized AKI patients
title_short	Development of mortality prediction model in the elderly hospitalized AKI patients
title_full	Development of mortality prediction model in the elderly hospitalized AKI patients
title_fullStr	Development of mortality prediction model in the elderly hospitalized AKI patients
title_full_unstemmed	Development of mortality prediction model in the elderly hospitalized AKI patients
title_sort	development of mortality prediction model in the elderly hospitalized aki patients
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7225be3bb4364afcb9282912bab89ddc
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Development of mortality prediction model in the elderly hospitalized AKI patients

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