Low parasite connectivity among three malaria hotspots in Thailand

Abstract Identifying sources and sinks of malaria transmission is critical for designing effective intervention strategies particularly as countries approach elimination. The number of malaria cases in Thailand decreased 90% between 2012 and 2020, yet elimination has remained a major public health c...

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Autores principales:	Hsiao-Han Chang, Meng-Chun Chang, Mathew Kiang, Ayesha S. Mahmud, Nattwut Ekapirat, Kenth Engø-Monsen, Prayuth Sudathip, Caroline O. Buckee, Richard J. Maude
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/72dc8d5af6dc47d0bb13c6d86f8b5cea
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:72dc8d5af6dc47d0bb13c6d86f8b5cea2021-12-05T12:13:15ZLow parasite connectivity among three malaria hotspots in Thailand10.1038/s41598-021-02746-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/72dc8d5af6dc47d0bb13c6d86f8b5cea2021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02746-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Identifying sources and sinks of malaria transmission is critical for designing effective intervention strategies particularly as countries approach elimination. The number of malaria cases in Thailand decreased 90% between 2012 and 2020, yet elimination has remained a major public health challenge with persistent transmission foci and ongoing importation. There are three main hotspots of malaria transmission in Thailand: Ubon Ratchathani and Sisaket in the Northeast; Tak in the West; and Yala in the South. However, the degree to which these hotspots are connected via travel and importation has not been well characterized. Here, we develop a metapopulation model parameterized by mobile phone call detail record data to estimate parasite flow among these regions. We show that parasite connectivity among these regions was limited, and that each of these provinces independently drove the malaria transmission in nearby provinces. Overall, our results suggest that due to the low probability of domestic importation between the transmission hotspots, control and elimination strategies can be considered separately for each region.Hsiao-Han ChangMeng-Chun ChangMathew KiangAyesha S. MahmudNattwut EkapiratKenth Engø-MonsenPrayuth SudathipCaroline O. BuckeeRichard J. MaudeNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-6 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Hsiao-Han Chang Meng-Chun Chang Mathew Kiang Ayesha S. Mahmud Nattwut Ekapirat Kenth Engø-Monsen Prayuth Sudathip Caroline O. Buckee Richard J. Maude Low parasite connectivity among three malaria hotspots in Thailand
description	Abstract Identifying sources and sinks of malaria transmission is critical for designing effective intervention strategies particularly as countries approach elimination. The number of malaria cases in Thailand decreased 90% between 2012 and 2020, yet elimination has remained a major public health challenge with persistent transmission foci and ongoing importation. There are three main hotspots of malaria transmission in Thailand: Ubon Ratchathani and Sisaket in the Northeast; Tak in the West; and Yala in the South. However, the degree to which these hotspots are connected via travel and importation has not been well characterized. Here, we develop a metapopulation model parameterized by mobile phone call detail record data to estimate parasite flow among these regions. We show that parasite connectivity among these regions was limited, and that each of these provinces independently drove the malaria transmission in nearby provinces. Overall, our results suggest that due to the low probability of domestic importation between the transmission hotspots, control and elimination strategies can be considered separately for each region.
format	article
author	Hsiao-Han Chang Meng-Chun Chang Mathew Kiang Ayesha S. Mahmud Nattwut Ekapirat Kenth Engø-Monsen Prayuth Sudathip Caroline O. Buckee Richard J. Maude
author_facet	Hsiao-Han Chang Meng-Chun Chang Mathew Kiang Ayesha S. Mahmud Nattwut Ekapirat Kenth Engø-Monsen Prayuth Sudathip Caroline O. Buckee Richard J. Maude
author_sort	Hsiao-Han Chang
title	Low parasite connectivity among three malaria hotspots in Thailand
title_short	Low parasite connectivity among three malaria hotspots in Thailand
title_full	Low parasite connectivity among three malaria hotspots in Thailand
title_fullStr	Low parasite connectivity among three malaria hotspots in Thailand
title_full_unstemmed	Low parasite connectivity among three malaria hotspots in Thailand
title_sort	low parasite connectivity among three malaria hotspots in thailand
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/72dc8d5af6dc47d0bb13c6d86f8b5cea
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Low parasite connectivity among three malaria hotspots in Thailand

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