Performance-based projection of precipitation extremes over China based on CMIP5/6 models using integrated quadratic distance

The study analyzes the consistency of future precipitation extremes projected over China under moderate climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5) and extreme climate scenarios (RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5), based on best models' ensembles for each extreme index (best-MME), best models' ensembles reg...

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Autores principales:	Sandro F. Veiga, Huiling Yuan
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Precipitation extremes Climate change CMIP5/6 China Integrated quadratic distance Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/740ce7d017784d0b8a0afbc0b7d9730f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:740ce7d017784d0b8a0afbc0b7d9730f2021-11-18T04:48:22ZPerformance-based projection of precipitation extremes over China based on CMIP5/6 models using integrated quadratic distance2212-094710.1016/j.wace.2021.100398https://doaj.org/article/740ce7d017784d0b8a0afbc0b7d9730f2021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094721000852https://doaj.org/toc/2212-0947The study analyzes the consistency of future precipitation extremes projected over China under moderate climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5) and extreme climate scenarios (RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5), based on best models' ensembles for each extreme index (best-MME), best models' ensembles regarding all indices (best-rankMME), and multi-model ensembles (MME). To select the best models, the integrated quadratic distance (IQD) combined with the Taylor skill score are used. This evaluation is a practical example of the benefits of using IQD to evaluate the models compared with root mean square error since the former is not sensitive to the similarity of the distribution's averages. All ensembles in each scenario consistently project the decrease of consecutive dry days (CDD) periods in western and northeast China, the increase of the number of days with heavy precipitation (R10mm) over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the increase of the precipitation intensity (SDII) in most of the Chinese territory. The moderate and extreme scenarios project very similar climate change patterns but more extreme scenarios show greater climate change signal magnitudes. In the case of the moderate scenarios, the most significant uncertainty relies on the CDD projections over southeastern China, where best-rankMME and MME project increasing CDD in the future whilst best-MME project decreasing CDD, although these changes are not statistically significant. Regarding extreme scenarios, the most significant uncertainty relies on the R10mm projections over southeastern China, where the best-MME CMIP5 projects decreasing R10mm (not statistically significant), whilst all the remaining ensembles project increasing values.Sandro F. VeigaHuiling YuanElsevierarticlePrecipitation extremesClimate changeCMIP5/6ChinaIntegrated quadratic distanceMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENWeather and Climate Extremes, Vol 34, Iss , Pp 100398- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Precipitation extremes Climate change CMIP5/6 China Integrated quadratic distance Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Precipitation extremes Climate change CMIP5/6 China Integrated quadratic distance Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Sandro F. Veiga Huiling Yuan Performance-based projection of precipitation extremes over China based on CMIP5/6 models using integrated quadratic distance
description	The study analyzes the consistency of future precipitation extremes projected over China under moderate climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5) and extreme climate scenarios (RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5), based on best models' ensembles for each extreme index (best-MME), best models' ensembles regarding all indices (best-rankMME), and multi-model ensembles (MME). To select the best models, the integrated quadratic distance (IQD) combined with the Taylor skill score are used. This evaluation is a practical example of the benefits of using IQD to evaluate the models compared with root mean square error since the former is not sensitive to the similarity of the distribution's averages. All ensembles in each scenario consistently project the decrease of consecutive dry days (CDD) periods in western and northeast China, the increase of the number of days with heavy precipitation (R10mm) over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the increase of the precipitation intensity (SDII) in most of the Chinese territory. The moderate and extreme scenarios project very similar climate change patterns but more extreme scenarios show greater climate change signal magnitudes. In the case of the moderate scenarios, the most significant uncertainty relies on the CDD projections over southeastern China, where best-rankMME and MME project increasing CDD in the future whilst best-MME project decreasing CDD, although these changes are not statistically significant. Regarding extreme scenarios, the most significant uncertainty relies on the R10mm projections over southeastern China, where the best-MME CMIP5 projects decreasing R10mm (not statistically significant), whilst all the remaining ensembles project increasing values.
format	article
author	Sandro F. Veiga Huiling Yuan
author_facet	Sandro F. Veiga Huiling Yuan
author_sort	Sandro F. Veiga
title	Performance-based projection of precipitation extremes over China based on CMIP5/6 models using integrated quadratic distance
title_short	Performance-based projection of precipitation extremes over China based on CMIP5/6 models using integrated quadratic distance
title_full	Performance-based projection of precipitation extremes over China based on CMIP5/6 models using integrated quadratic distance
title_fullStr	Performance-based projection of precipitation extremes over China based on CMIP5/6 models using integrated quadratic distance
title_full_unstemmed	Performance-based projection of precipitation extremes over China based on CMIP5/6 models using integrated quadratic distance
title_sort	performance-based projection of precipitation extremes over china based on cmip5/6 models using integrated quadratic distance
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/740ce7d017784d0b8a0afbc0b7d9730f
work_keys_str_mv	AT sandrofveiga performancebasedprojectionofprecipitationextremesoverchinabasedoncmip56modelsusingintegratedquadraticdistance AT huilingyuan performancebasedprojectionofprecipitationextremesoverchinabasedoncmip56modelsusingintegratedquadraticdistance
_version_	1718425046436806656

Performance-based projection of precipitation extremes over China based on CMIP5/6 models using integrated quadratic distance

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