Incorrect likelihood methods were used to infer scaling laws of marine predator search behaviour.

<h4>Background</h4>Ecologists are collecting extensive data concerning movements of animals in marine ecosystems. Such data need to be analysed with valid statistical methods to yield meaningful conclusions.<h4>Principal findings</h4>We demonstrate methodological issues in tw...

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Autores principales:	Andrew M Edwards, Mervyn P Freeman, Greg A Breed, Ian D Jonsen
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7471600b1c3e4ab0925ea4983015555a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7471600b1c3e4ab0925ea4983015555a2021-11-18T08:13:08ZIncorrect likelihood methods were used to infer scaling laws of marine predator search behaviour.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0045174https://doaj.org/article/7471600b1c3e4ab0925ea4983015555a2012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23071508/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>Ecologists are collecting extensive data concerning movements of animals in marine ecosystems. Such data need to be analysed with valid statistical methods to yield meaningful conclusions.<h4>Principal findings</h4>We demonstrate methodological issues in two recent studies that reached similar conclusions concerning movements of marine animals (Nature 451:1098; Science 332:1551). The first study analysed vertical movement data to conclude that diverse marine predators (Atlantic cod, basking sharks, bigeye tuna, leatherback turtles and Magellanic penguins) exhibited "Lévy-walk-like behaviour", close to a hypothesised optimal foraging strategy. By reproducing the original results for the bigeye tuna data, we show that the likelihood of tested models was calculated from residuals of regression fits (an incorrect method), rather than from the likelihood equations of the actual probability distributions being tested. This resulted in erroneous Akaike Information Criteria, and the testing of models that do not correspond to valid probability distributions. We demonstrate how this led to overwhelming support for a model that has no biological justification and that is statistically spurious because its probability density function goes negative. Re-analysis of the bigeye tuna data, using standard likelihood methods, overturns the original result and conclusion for that data set. The second study observed Lévy walk movement patterns by mussels. We demonstrate several issues concerning the likelihood calculations (including the aforementioned residuals issue). Re-analysis of the data rejects the original Lévy walk conclusion.<h4>Conclusions</h4>We consequently question the claimed existence of scaling laws of the search behaviour of marine predators and mussels, since such conclusions were reached using incorrect methods. We discourage the suggested potential use of "Lévy-like walks" when modelling consequences of fishing and climate change, and caution that any resulting advice to managers of marine ecosystems would be problematic. For reproducibility and future work we provide R source code for all calculations.Andrew M EdwardsMervyn P FreemanGreg A BreedIan D JonsenPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 10, p e45174 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Andrew M Edwards Mervyn P Freeman Greg A Breed Ian D Jonsen Incorrect likelihood methods were used to infer scaling laws of marine predator search behaviour.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Ecologists are collecting extensive data concerning movements of animals in marine ecosystems. Such data need to be analysed with valid statistical methods to yield meaningful conclusions.<h4>Principal findings</h4>We demonstrate methodological issues in two recent studies that reached similar conclusions concerning movements of marine animals (Nature 451:1098; Science 332:1551). The first study analysed vertical movement data to conclude that diverse marine predators (Atlantic cod, basking sharks, bigeye tuna, leatherback turtles and Magellanic penguins) exhibited "Lévy-walk-like behaviour", close to a hypothesised optimal foraging strategy. By reproducing the original results for the bigeye tuna data, we show that the likelihood of tested models was calculated from residuals of regression fits (an incorrect method), rather than from the likelihood equations of the actual probability distributions being tested. This resulted in erroneous Akaike Information Criteria, and the testing of models that do not correspond to valid probability distributions. We demonstrate how this led to overwhelming support for a model that has no biological justification and that is statistically spurious because its probability density function goes negative. Re-analysis of the bigeye tuna data, using standard likelihood methods, overturns the original result and conclusion for that data set. The second study observed Lévy walk movement patterns by mussels. We demonstrate several issues concerning the likelihood calculations (including the aforementioned residuals issue). Re-analysis of the data rejects the original Lévy walk conclusion.<h4>Conclusions</h4>We consequently question the claimed existence of scaling laws of the search behaviour of marine predators and mussels, since such conclusions were reached using incorrect methods. We discourage the suggested potential use of "Lévy-like walks" when modelling consequences of fishing and climate change, and caution that any resulting advice to managers of marine ecosystems would be problematic. For reproducibility and future work we provide R source code for all calculations.
format	article
author	Andrew M Edwards Mervyn P Freeman Greg A Breed Ian D Jonsen
author_facet	Andrew M Edwards Mervyn P Freeman Greg A Breed Ian D Jonsen
author_sort	Andrew M Edwards
title	Incorrect likelihood methods were used to infer scaling laws of marine predator search behaviour.
title_short	Incorrect likelihood methods were used to infer scaling laws of marine predator search behaviour.
title_full	Incorrect likelihood methods were used to infer scaling laws of marine predator search behaviour.
title_fullStr	Incorrect likelihood methods were used to infer scaling laws of marine predator search behaviour.
title_full_unstemmed	Incorrect likelihood methods were used to infer scaling laws of marine predator search behaviour.
title_sort	incorrect likelihood methods were used to infer scaling laws of marine predator search behaviour.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/7471600b1c3e4ab0925ea4983015555a
work_keys_str_mv	AT andrewmedwards incorrectlikelihoodmethodswereusedtoinferscalinglawsofmarinepredatorsearchbehaviour AT mervynpfreeman incorrectlikelihoodmethodswereusedtoinferscalinglawsofmarinepredatorsearchbehaviour AT gregabreed incorrectlikelihoodmethodswereusedtoinferscalinglawsofmarinepredatorsearchbehaviour AT iandjonsen incorrectlikelihoodmethodswereusedtoinferscalinglawsofmarinepredatorsearchbehaviour
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Incorrect likelihood methods were used to infer scaling laws of marine predator search behaviour.

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