Accounting for farmers’ control decisions in a model of pathogen spread through animal trade

Abstract Accounting for individual decisions in mechanistic epidemiological models remains a challenge, especially for unregulated endemic animal diseases for which control is not compulsory. We propose a new integrative model by combining two sub-models. The first one for the dynamics of a livestoc...

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Autores principales:	Lina Cristancho Fajardo, Pauline Ezanno, Elisabeta Vergu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/74830459047742d5aade5d2e8d92d389
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:74830459047742d5aade5d2e8d92d3892021-12-02T14:41:55ZAccounting for farmers’ control decisions in a model of pathogen spread through animal trade10.1038/s41598-021-88471-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/74830459047742d5aade5d2e8d92d3892021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88471-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Accounting for individual decisions in mechanistic epidemiological models remains a challenge, especially for unregulated endemic animal diseases for which control is not compulsory. We propose a new integrative model by combining two sub-models. The first one for the dynamics of a livestock epidemic on a metapopulation network, grounded on demographic and animal trade data. The second one for farmers’ behavior regarding the adoption of a control measure against the disease spread in their herd. The measure is specified as a protective vaccine with given economic implications, and the model is numerically studied through intensive simulations and sensitivity analyses. While each tested parameter of the model has an impact on the overall model behavior, the most important factor in farmers’ decisions is their frequency, as this factor explained almost 30% of the variation in decision-related outputs of the model. Indeed, updating frequently local health information impacts positively vaccination, and limits strongly the propagation of the pathogen. Our study is relevant for the understanding of the interplay between decision-related human behavior and livestock epidemic dynamics. The model can be used for other structures of epidemic models or different interventions, by adapting its components.Lina Cristancho FajardoPauline EzannoElisabeta VerguNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Lina Cristancho Fajardo Pauline Ezanno Elisabeta Vergu Accounting for farmers’ control decisions in a model of pathogen spread through animal trade
description	Abstract Accounting for individual decisions in mechanistic epidemiological models remains a challenge, especially for unregulated endemic animal diseases for which control is not compulsory. We propose a new integrative model by combining two sub-models. The first one for the dynamics of a livestock epidemic on a metapopulation network, grounded on demographic and animal trade data. The second one for farmers’ behavior regarding the adoption of a control measure against the disease spread in their herd. The measure is specified as a protective vaccine with given economic implications, and the model is numerically studied through intensive simulations and sensitivity analyses. While each tested parameter of the model has an impact on the overall model behavior, the most important factor in farmers’ decisions is their frequency, as this factor explained almost 30% of the variation in decision-related outputs of the model. Indeed, updating frequently local health information impacts positively vaccination, and limits strongly the propagation of the pathogen. Our study is relevant for the understanding of the interplay between decision-related human behavior and livestock epidemic dynamics. The model can be used for other structures of epidemic models or different interventions, by adapting its components.
format	article
author	Lina Cristancho Fajardo Pauline Ezanno Elisabeta Vergu
author_facet	Lina Cristancho Fajardo Pauline Ezanno Elisabeta Vergu
author_sort	Lina Cristancho Fajardo
title	Accounting for farmers’ control decisions in a model of pathogen spread through animal trade
title_short	Accounting for farmers’ control decisions in a model of pathogen spread through animal trade
title_full	Accounting for farmers’ control decisions in a model of pathogen spread through animal trade
title_fullStr	Accounting for farmers’ control decisions in a model of pathogen spread through animal trade
title_full_unstemmed	Accounting for farmers’ control decisions in a model of pathogen spread through animal trade
title_sort	accounting for farmers’ control decisions in a model of pathogen spread through animal trade
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/74830459047742d5aade5d2e8d92d389
work_keys_str_mv	AT linacristanchofajardo accountingforfarmerscontroldecisionsinamodelofpathogenspreadthroughanimaltrade AT paulineezanno accountingforfarmerscontroldecisionsinamodelofpathogenspreadthroughanimaltrade AT elisabetavergu accountingforfarmerscontroldecisionsinamodelofpathogenspreadthroughanimaltrade
_version_	1718389815298228224

Accounting for farmers’ control decisions in a model of pathogen spread through animal trade

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