Historical (1850–2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS ModelE2.1 Contribution to CMIP6

Abstract The Earth's climate is rapidly changing. Over the past centuries, aerosols, via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds, played an important role in counterbalancing some of the greenhouse gas (GHG) caused global warming. The multicentury anthropogenic aeros...

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Autores principales:	Susanne E. Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Greg Faluvegi, Maxwell Kelley, Ken K. Lo, Ron L. Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, Jingbo Wu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2020
Materias:	aerosol forcing GISS model CMIP6 historical simulation aerosol microphysics Physical geography GB3-5030 Oceanography GC1-1581
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7545ac66d90147dead66334ecf3973c5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7545ac66d90147dead66334ecf3973c52021-11-15T14:20:26ZHistorical (1850–2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS ModelE2.1 Contribution to CMIP61942-246610.1029/2019MS001978https://doaj.org/article/7545ac66d90147dead66334ecf3973c52020-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001978https://doaj.org/toc/1942-2466Abstract The Earth's climate is rapidly changing. Over the past centuries, aerosols, via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds, played an important role in counterbalancing some of the greenhouse gas (GHG) caused global warming. The multicentury anthropogenic aerosol cooling effect prevented present‐day climate from reaching even higher surface air temperatures and subsequent more dramatic climate impacts. Trends in aerosol concentrations and optical depth show that in many polluted regions such as Europe and the United States, aerosol precursor emissions decreased back to levels of the 1950s. More recent polluting countries such as China may have reached a turning point in recent years as well, while India still follows an upward trend. Here we study aerosol trends in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations of the GISS ModelE2.1 climate model using a fully coupled atmosphere composition configuration, including interactive gas‐phase chemistry and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass‐based (One‐Moment Aerosol, OMA) aerosol module. Results show that whether global aerosol radiative forcing is already declining depends on the aerosol scheme used. Using the aerosol microphysical scheme, where the aerosol system reacts more strongly to the trend in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, global peak direct aerosol forcing was reached in the 1980s, whereas the mass‐based scheme simulates peak direct aerosol forcing around 2010.Susanne E. BauerKostas TsigaridisGreg FaluvegiMaxwell KelleyKen K. LoRon L. MillerLarissa NazarenkoGavin A. SchmidtJingbo WuAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)articleaerosol forcingGISS modelCMIP6 historical simulationaerosol microphysicsPhysical geographyGB3-5030OceanographyGC1-1581ENJournal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol 12, Iss 8, Pp n/a-n/a (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	aerosol forcing GISS model CMIP6 historical simulation aerosol microphysics Physical geography GB3-5030 Oceanography GC1-1581
spellingShingle	aerosol forcing GISS model CMIP6 historical simulation aerosol microphysics Physical geography GB3-5030 Oceanography GC1-1581 Susanne E. Bauer Kostas Tsigaridis Greg Faluvegi Maxwell Kelley Ken K. Lo Ron L. Miller Larissa Nazarenko Gavin A. Schmidt Jingbo Wu Historical (1850–2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS ModelE2.1 Contribution to CMIP6
description	Abstract The Earth's climate is rapidly changing. Over the past centuries, aerosols, via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds, played an important role in counterbalancing some of the greenhouse gas (GHG) caused global warming. The multicentury anthropogenic aerosol cooling effect prevented present‐day climate from reaching even higher surface air temperatures and subsequent more dramatic climate impacts. Trends in aerosol concentrations and optical depth show that in many polluted regions such as Europe and the United States, aerosol precursor emissions decreased back to levels of the 1950s. More recent polluting countries such as China may have reached a turning point in recent years as well, while India still follows an upward trend. Here we study aerosol trends in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations of the GISS ModelE2.1 climate model using a fully coupled atmosphere composition configuration, including interactive gas‐phase chemistry and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass‐based (One‐Moment Aerosol, OMA) aerosol module. Results show that whether global aerosol radiative forcing is already declining depends on the aerosol scheme used. Using the aerosol microphysical scheme, where the aerosol system reacts more strongly to the trend in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, global peak direct aerosol forcing was reached in the 1980s, whereas the mass‐based scheme simulates peak direct aerosol forcing around 2010.
format	article
author	Susanne E. Bauer Kostas Tsigaridis Greg Faluvegi Maxwell Kelley Ken K. Lo Ron L. Miller Larissa Nazarenko Gavin A. Schmidt Jingbo Wu
author_facet	Susanne E. Bauer Kostas Tsigaridis Greg Faluvegi Maxwell Kelley Ken K. Lo Ron L. Miller Larissa Nazarenko Gavin A. Schmidt Jingbo Wu
author_sort	Susanne E. Bauer
title	Historical (1850–2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS ModelE2.1 Contribution to CMIP6
title_short	Historical (1850–2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS ModelE2.1 Contribution to CMIP6
title_full	Historical (1850–2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS ModelE2.1 Contribution to CMIP6
title_fullStr	Historical (1850–2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS ModelE2.1 Contribution to CMIP6
title_full_unstemmed	Historical (1850–2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS ModelE2.1 Contribution to CMIP6
title_sort	historical (1850–2014) aerosol evolution and role on climate forcing using the giss modele2.1 contribution to cmip6
publisher	American Geophysical Union (AGU)
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/7545ac66d90147dead66334ecf3973c5
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Historical (1850–2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS ModelE2.1 Contribution to CMIP6

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