Transition prediction in the Ising-model
Dynamical systems can be subject to critical transitions where a system’s state abruptly shifts from one stable equilibrium to another. To a certain extent such transitions can be predicted with a set of methods known as early warning signals. These methods are often developed and tested on systems...
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| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | article |
| Lenguaje: | EN |
| Publicado: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doaj.org/article/7571bde4d9e5411cbf25aaf1f638b05c |
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| Sumario: | Dynamical systems can be subject to critical transitions where a system’s state abruptly shifts from one stable equilibrium to another. To a certain extent such transitions can be predicted with a set of methods known as early warning signals. These methods are often developed and tested on systems simulated with equation-based approaches that focus on the aggregate dynamics of a system. Many ecological phenomena however seem to necessitate the consideration of a system’s micro-level interactions since only there the actual reasons for sudden state transitions become apparent. Agent-based approaches that simulate systems from the bottom up by explicitly focusing on these micro-level interactions have only rarely been used in such investigations. This study compares the performance of a bifurcation estimation method for predicting state transitions when applied to data from an equation-based and an agent-based version of the Ising-model. The results show that the method can be applied to agent-based models and, despite its greater stochasticity, can provide useful predictions about state changes in complex systems. |
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