Instrumental variable analysis using offspring BMI in childhood as an indicator of parental BMI in relation to mortality
Abstract Childhood BMI shows associations with adult mortality, but these may be influenced by effects of ill health in childhood on BMI and later mortality. To avoid this, we used offspring childhood BMI as an instrumental variable (IV) for own BMI in relation to mortality and compared it with conv...
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2021
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oai:doaj.org-article:75786fa5bbc8408296a93656db7bc1b72021-11-21T12:21:11ZInstrumental variable analysis using offspring BMI in childhood as an indicator of parental BMI in relation to mortality10.1038/s41598-021-01352-w2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/75786fa5bbc8408296a93656db7bc1b72021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01352-whttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Childhood BMI shows associations with adult mortality, but these may be influenced by effects of ill health in childhood on BMI and later mortality. To avoid this, we used offspring childhood BMI as an instrumental variable (IV) for own BMI in relation to mortality and compared it with conventional associations of own childhood BMI and own mortality. We included 36,097 parent–offspring pairs with measured heights and weights from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register and register-based information on death. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using adjusted Cox regression models. For all-cause mortality, per zBMI at age 7 the conventional HR = 1.07 (95%CI: 1.04–1.09) in women and 1.02 (95%CI: 0.92–1.14) in men, whereas the IV HR = 1.23 (95%CI: 1.15–1.32) in women and 1.05 (95%CI: 0.94–1.17) in men. Per zBMI at age 13, the conventional HR = 1.11 (95%CI: 1.08–1.15) in women and 1.03 (95%CI: 0.99–1.06) in men, whereas the IV HR = 1.30 (95%CI: 1.19–1.42) in women and 1.15 (95%CI: 1.04–1.29) in men. Only conventional models showed indications of J-shaped associations. Our IV analyses suggest that there is a causal relationship between BMI and mortality that is positive at both high and low BMI values.Kim BlondDavid CarslakeLine Klingen GjærdeDorte VistisenThorkild I. A. SørensenGeorge Davey SmithJennifer L. BakerNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021) |
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Medicine R Science Q Kim Blond David Carslake Line Klingen Gjærde Dorte Vistisen Thorkild I. A. Sørensen George Davey Smith Jennifer L. Baker Instrumental variable analysis using offspring BMI in childhood as an indicator of parental BMI in relation to mortality |
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Abstract Childhood BMI shows associations with adult mortality, but these may be influenced by effects of ill health in childhood on BMI and later mortality. To avoid this, we used offspring childhood BMI as an instrumental variable (IV) for own BMI in relation to mortality and compared it with conventional associations of own childhood BMI and own mortality. We included 36,097 parent–offspring pairs with measured heights and weights from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register and register-based information on death. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using adjusted Cox regression models. For all-cause mortality, per zBMI at age 7 the conventional HR = 1.07 (95%CI: 1.04–1.09) in women and 1.02 (95%CI: 0.92–1.14) in men, whereas the IV HR = 1.23 (95%CI: 1.15–1.32) in women and 1.05 (95%CI: 0.94–1.17) in men. Per zBMI at age 13, the conventional HR = 1.11 (95%CI: 1.08–1.15) in women and 1.03 (95%CI: 0.99–1.06) in men, whereas the IV HR = 1.30 (95%CI: 1.19–1.42) in women and 1.15 (95%CI: 1.04–1.29) in men. Only conventional models showed indications of J-shaped associations. Our IV analyses suggest that there is a causal relationship between BMI and mortality that is positive at both high and low BMI values. |
format |
article |
author |
Kim Blond David Carslake Line Klingen Gjærde Dorte Vistisen Thorkild I. A. Sørensen George Davey Smith Jennifer L. Baker |
author_facet |
Kim Blond David Carslake Line Klingen Gjærde Dorte Vistisen Thorkild I. A. Sørensen George Davey Smith Jennifer L. Baker |
author_sort |
Kim Blond |
title |
Instrumental variable analysis using offspring BMI in childhood as an indicator of parental BMI in relation to mortality |
title_short |
Instrumental variable analysis using offspring BMI in childhood as an indicator of parental BMI in relation to mortality |
title_full |
Instrumental variable analysis using offspring BMI in childhood as an indicator of parental BMI in relation to mortality |
title_fullStr |
Instrumental variable analysis using offspring BMI in childhood as an indicator of parental BMI in relation to mortality |
title_full_unstemmed |
Instrumental variable analysis using offspring BMI in childhood as an indicator of parental BMI in relation to mortality |
title_sort |
instrumental variable analysis using offspring bmi in childhood as an indicator of parental bmi in relation to mortality |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/75786fa5bbc8408296a93656db7bc1b7 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT kimblond instrumentalvariableanalysisusingoffspringbmiinchildhoodasanindicatorofparentalbmiinrelationtomortality AT davidcarslake instrumentalvariableanalysisusingoffspringbmiinchildhoodasanindicatorofparentalbmiinrelationtomortality AT lineklingengjærde instrumentalvariableanalysisusingoffspringbmiinchildhoodasanindicatorofparentalbmiinrelationtomortality AT dortevistisen instrumentalvariableanalysisusingoffspringbmiinchildhoodasanindicatorofparentalbmiinrelationtomortality AT thorkildiasørensen instrumentalvariableanalysisusingoffspringbmiinchildhoodasanindicatorofparentalbmiinrelationtomortality AT georgedaveysmith instrumentalvariableanalysisusingoffspringbmiinchildhoodasanindicatorofparentalbmiinrelationtomortality AT jenniferlbaker instrumentalvariableanalysisusingoffspringbmiinchildhoodasanindicatorofparentalbmiinrelationtomortality |
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