Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US.

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic provides a unique opportunity for detailed examination of the spatial dynamics of an emerging pathogen. In the US, the pandemic was characterized by substantial geographical heterogeneity: the 2009 spring wave was limited mainly to northeastern cities while the large...

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Autores principales:	Julia R Gog, Sébastien Ballesteros, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Ottar N Bjornstad, Jeffrey Shaman, Dennis L Chao, Farid Khan, Bryan T Grenfell
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014
Materias:	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7588682227a142d9ad137d93b5dba98b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7588682227a142d9ad137d93b5dba98b2021-11-11T05:52:07ZSpatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US.1553-734X1553-735810.1371/journal.pcbi.1003635https://doaj.org/article/7588682227a142d9ad137d93b5dba98b2014-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24921923/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-734Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-7358The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic provides a unique opportunity for detailed examination of the spatial dynamics of an emerging pathogen. In the US, the pandemic was characterized by substantial geographical heterogeneity: the 2009 spring wave was limited mainly to northeastern cities while the larger fall wave affected the whole country. Here we use finely resolved spatial and temporal influenza disease data based on electronic medical claims to explore the spread of the fall pandemic wave across 271 US cities and associated suburban areas. We document a clear spatial pattern in the timing of onset of the fall wave, starting in southeastern cities and spreading outwards over a period of three months. We use mechanistic models to tease apart the external factors associated with the timing of the fall wave arrival: differential seeding events linked to demographic factors, school opening dates, absolute humidity, prior immunity from the spring wave, spatial diffusion, and their interactions. Although the onset of the fall wave was correlated with school openings as previously reported, models including spatial spread alone resulted in better fit. The best model had a combination of the two. Absolute humidity or prior exposure during the spring wave did not improve the fit and population size only played a weak role. In conclusion, the protracted spread of pandemic influenza in fall 2009 in the US was dominated by short-distance spatial spread partially catalysed by school openings rather than long-distance transmission events. This is in contrast to the rapid hierarchical transmission patterns previously described for seasonal influenza. The findings underline the critical role that school-age children play in facilitating the geographic spread of pandemic influenza and highlight the need for further information on the movement and mixing patterns of this age group.Julia R GogSébastien BallesterosCécile ViboudLone SimonsenOttar N BjornstadJeffrey ShamanDennis L ChaoFarid KhanBryan T GrenfellPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleBiology (General)QH301-705.5ENPLoS Computational Biology, Vol 10, Iss 6, p e1003635 (2014)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
spellingShingle	Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Julia R Gog Sébastien Ballesteros Cécile Viboud Lone Simonsen Ottar N Bjornstad Jeffrey Shaman Dennis L Chao Farid Khan Bryan T Grenfell Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US.
description	The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic provides a unique opportunity for detailed examination of the spatial dynamics of an emerging pathogen. In the US, the pandemic was characterized by substantial geographical heterogeneity: the 2009 spring wave was limited mainly to northeastern cities while the larger fall wave affected the whole country. Here we use finely resolved spatial and temporal influenza disease data based on electronic medical claims to explore the spread of the fall pandemic wave across 271 US cities and associated suburban areas. We document a clear spatial pattern in the timing of onset of the fall wave, starting in southeastern cities and spreading outwards over a period of three months. We use mechanistic models to tease apart the external factors associated with the timing of the fall wave arrival: differential seeding events linked to demographic factors, school opening dates, absolute humidity, prior immunity from the spring wave, spatial diffusion, and their interactions. Although the onset of the fall wave was correlated with school openings as previously reported, models including spatial spread alone resulted in better fit. The best model had a combination of the two. Absolute humidity or prior exposure during the spring wave did not improve the fit and population size only played a weak role. In conclusion, the protracted spread of pandemic influenza in fall 2009 in the US was dominated by short-distance spatial spread partially catalysed by school openings rather than long-distance transmission events. This is in contrast to the rapid hierarchical transmission patterns previously described for seasonal influenza. The findings underline the critical role that school-age children play in facilitating the geographic spread of pandemic influenza and highlight the need for further information on the movement and mixing patterns of this age group.
format	article
author	Julia R Gog Sébastien Ballesteros Cécile Viboud Lone Simonsen Ottar N Bjornstad Jeffrey Shaman Dennis L Chao Farid Khan Bryan T Grenfell
author_facet	Julia R Gog Sébastien Ballesteros Cécile Viboud Lone Simonsen Ottar N Bjornstad Jeffrey Shaman Dennis L Chao Farid Khan Bryan T Grenfell
author_sort	Julia R Gog
title	Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US.
title_short	Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US.
title_full	Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US.
title_fullStr	Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US.
title_full_unstemmed	Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US.
title_sort	spatial transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza in the us.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2014
url	https://doaj.org/article/7588682227a142d9ad137d93b5dba98b
work_keys_str_mv	AT juliargog spatialtransmissionof2009pandemicinfluenzaintheus AT sebastienballesteros spatialtransmissionof2009pandemicinfluenzaintheus AT cecileviboud spatialtransmissionof2009pandemicinfluenzaintheus AT lonesimonsen spatialtransmissionof2009pandemicinfluenzaintheus AT ottarnbjornstad spatialtransmissionof2009pandemicinfluenzaintheus AT jeffreyshaman spatialtransmissionof2009pandemicinfluenzaintheus AT dennislchao spatialtransmissionof2009pandemicinfluenzaintheus AT faridkhan spatialtransmissionof2009pandemicinfluenzaintheus AT bryantgrenfell spatialtransmissionof2009pandemicinfluenzaintheus
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Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US.

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