Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale.

The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission cycle and a lack of epidemiological data make mapping areas at r...

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Autores principales:	Larisa Lee-Cruz, Maxime Lenormand, Julien Cappelle, Alexandre Caron, Hélène De Nys, Martine Peeters, Mathieu Bourgarel, François Roger, Annelise Tran
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/75c33fc8f1194fbe8e9a7a6df7f9b6ac
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:75c33fc8f1194fbe8e9a7a6df7f9b6ac
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:75c33fc8f1194fbe8e9a7a6df7f9b6ac2021-12-02T20:24:16ZMapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale.1935-27271935-273510.1371/journal.pntd.0009683https://doaj.org/article/75c33fc8f1194fbe8e9a7a6df7f9b6ac2021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009683https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission cycle and a lack of epidemiological data make mapping areas at risk of the disease challenging. We used a Geographic Information System-based multicriteria evaluation (GIS-MCE), a knowledge-based approach, to identify areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover to humans in regions of Guinea, Congo and Gabon where Ebola viruses already emerged. We identified environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors and potential hosts from a literature review. Geographical data layers, representing risk factors, were combined to produce suitability maps of Ebola virus spillover at the landscape scale. Our maps show high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover at a fine regional scale. Reported spillover events fell in areas of intermediate to high suitability in our maps, and a sensitivity analysis showed that the maps produced were robust. There are still important gaps in our knowledge about what factors are associated with the risk of Ebola virus spillover. As more information becomes available, maps produced using the GIS-MCE approach can be easily updated to improve surveillance and the prevention of future outbreaks.Larisa Lee-CruzMaxime LenormandJulien CappelleAlexandre CaronHélène De NysMartine PeetersMathieu BourgarelFrançois RogerAnnelise TranPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleArctic medicine. Tropical medicineRC955-962Public aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 8, p e0009683 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Larisa Lee-Cruz Maxime Lenormand Julien Cappelle Alexandre Caron Hélène De Nys Martine Peeters Mathieu Bourgarel François Roger Annelise Tran Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale.
description	The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission cycle and a lack of epidemiological data make mapping areas at risk of the disease challenging. We used a Geographic Information System-based multicriteria evaluation (GIS-MCE), a knowledge-based approach, to identify areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover to humans in regions of Guinea, Congo and Gabon where Ebola viruses already emerged. We identified environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors and potential hosts from a literature review. Geographical data layers, representing risk factors, were combined to produce suitability maps of Ebola virus spillover at the landscape scale. Our maps show high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover at a fine regional scale. Reported spillover events fell in areas of intermediate to high suitability in our maps, and a sensitivity analysis showed that the maps produced were robust. There are still important gaps in our knowledge about what factors are associated with the risk of Ebola virus spillover. As more information becomes available, maps produced using the GIS-MCE approach can be easily updated to improve surveillance and the prevention of future outbreaks.
format	article
author	Larisa Lee-Cruz Maxime Lenormand Julien Cappelle Alexandre Caron Hélène De Nys Martine Peeters Mathieu Bourgarel François Roger Annelise Tran
author_facet	Larisa Lee-Cruz Maxime Lenormand Julien Cappelle Alexandre Caron Hélène De Nys Martine Peeters Mathieu Bourgarel François Roger Annelise Tran
author_sort	Larisa Lee-Cruz
title	Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale.
title_short	Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale.
title_full	Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale.
title_fullStr	Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale.
title_full_unstemmed	Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale.
title_sort	mapping of ebola virus spillover: suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/75c33fc8f1194fbe8e9a7a6df7f9b6ac
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Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale.

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