Socioeconomic and environmental patterns behind H1N1 spreading in Sweden

Abstract Identifying the critical factors related to influenza spreading is crucial in predicting and mitigating epidemics. Specifically, uncovering the relationship between epidemic onset and various risk indicators such as socioeconomic, mobility and climate factors can reveal locations and travel...

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Autores principales:	András Bota, Martin Holmberg, Lauren Gardner, Martin Rosvall
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/766b195077c647db8fa3bcc2f765d64f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:766b195077c647db8fa3bcc2f765d64f2021-11-21T12:18:22ZSocioeconomic and environmental patterns behind H1N1 spreading in Sweden10.1038/s41598-021-01857-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/766b195077c647db8fa3bcc2f765d64f2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01857-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Identifying the critical factors related to influenza spreading is crucial in predicting and mitigating epidemics. Specifically, uncovering the relationship between epidemic onset and various risk indicators such as socioeconomic, mobility and climate factors can reveal locations and travel patterns that play critical roles in furthering an outbreak. We study the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza outbreaks in Sweden’s municipalities between 2009 and 2015 and use the Generalized Inverse Infection Method (GIIM) to assess the most significant contributing risk factors. GIIM represents an epidemic spreading process on a network: nodes correspond to geographical objects, links indicate travel routes, and transmission probabilities assigned to the links guide the infection process. Our results reinforce existing observations that the influenza outbreaks considered in this study were driven by the country’s largest population centers, while meteorological factors also contributed significantly. Travel and other socioeconomic indicators have a negligible effect. We also demonstrate that by training our model on the 2009 outbreak, we can predict the epidemic onsets in the following five seasons with high accuracy.András BotaMartin HolmbergLauren GardnerMartin RosvallNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q András Bota Martin Holmberg Lauren Gardner Martin Rosvall Socioeconomic and environmental patterns behind H1N1 spreading in Sweden
description	Abstract Identifying the critical factors related to influenza spreading is crucial in predicting and mitigating epidemics. Specifically, uncovering the relationship between epidemic onset and various risk indicators such as socioeconomic, mobility and climate factors can reveal locations and travel patterns that play critical roles in furthering an outbreak. We study the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza outbreaks in Sweden’s municipalities between 2009 and 2015 and use the Generalized Inverse Infection Method (GIIM) to assess the most significant contributing risk factors. GIIM represents an epidemic spreading process on a network: nodes correspond to geographical objects, links indicate travel routes, and transmission probabilities assigned to the links guide the infection process. Our results reinforce existing observations that the influenza outbreaks considered in this study were driven by the country’s largest population centers, while meteorological factors also contributed significantly. Travel and other socioeconomic indicators have a negligible effect. We also demonstrate that by training our model on the 2009 outbreak, we can predict the epidemic onsets in the following five seasons with high accuracy.
format	article
author	András Bota Martin Holmberg Lauren Gardner Martin Rosvall
author_facet	András Bota Martin Holmberg Lauren Gardner Martin Rosvall
author_sort	András Bota
title	Socioeconomic and environmental patterns behind H1N1 spreading in Sweden
title_short	Socioeconomic and environmental patterns behind H1N1 spreading in Sweden
title_full	Socioeconomic and environmental patterns behind H1N1 spreading in Sweden
title_fullStr	Socioeconomic and environmental patterns behind H1N1 spreading in Sweden
title_full_unstemmed	Socioeconomic and environmental patterns behind H1N1 spreading in Sweden
title_sort	socioeconomic and environmental patterns behind h1n1 spreading in sweden
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/766b195077c647db8fa3bcc2f765d64f
work_keys_str_mv	AT andrasbota socioeconomicandenvironmentalpatternsbehindh1n1spreadinginsweden AT martinholmberg socioeconomicandenvironmentalpatternsbehindh1n1spreadinginsweden AT laurengardner socioeconomicandenvironmentalpatternsbehindh1n1spreadinginsweden AT martinrosvall socioeconomicandenvironmentalpatternsbehindh1n1spreadinginsweden
_version_	1718419072985595904

Socioeconomic and environmental patterns behind H1N1 spreading in Sweden

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