Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.

Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversi...

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Autores principales:	Marc Baguelin, Katja Hoschler, Elaine Stanford, Pauline Waight, Pia Hardelid, Nick Andrews, Elizabeth Miller
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2011
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/76a486a3d210420da0b294ca76a5766c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:76a486a3d210420da0b294ca76a5766c2021-11-18T06:58:23ZAge-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0017074https://doaj.org/article/76a486a3d210420da0b294ca76a5766c2011-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/21373639/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years). The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period.Marc BaguelinKatja HoschlerElaine StanfordPauline WaightPia HardelidNick AndrewsElizabeth MillerPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 6, Iss 2, p e17074 (2011)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Marc Baguelin Katja Hoschler Elaine Stanford Pauline Waight Pia Hardelid Nick Andrews Elizabeth Miller Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.
description	Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years). The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period.
format	article
author	Marc Baguelin Katja Hoschler Elaine Stanford Pauline Waight Pia Hardelid Nick Andrews Elizabeth Miller
author_facet	Marc Baguelin Katja Hoschler Elaine Stanford Pauline Waight Pia Hardelid Nick Andrews Elizabeth Miller
author_sort	Marc Baguelin
title	Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.
title_short	Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.
title_full	Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.
title_fullStr	Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.
title_full_unstemmed	Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.
title_sort	age-specific incidence of a/h1n1 2009 influenza infection in england from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2011
url	https://doaj.org/article/76a486a3d210420da0b294ca76a5766c
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Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.

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