Climate and the spread of COVID-19

Abstract Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic condit...

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Autores principales:	Simiao Chen, Klaus Prettner, Michael Kuhn, Pascal Geldsetzer, Chen Wang, Till Bärnighausen, David E. Bloom
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/76cc06881e5742ed98873bcc357f1dd2
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:76cc06881e5742ed98873bcc357f1dd22021-12-02T17:39:31ZClimate and the spread of COVID-1910.1038/s41598-021-87692-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/76cc06881e5742ed98873bcc357f1dd22021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87692-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress the logarithm of confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country’s distance from the equator, controlling for key confounding factors: air travel, vehicle concentration, urbanization, COVID-19 testing intensity, cell phone usage, income, old-age dependency ratio, and health expenditure. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 4.3% increase in cases per million inhabitants as of January 9, 2021 (p value < 0.001). Our results imply that a country, which is located 1000 km closer to the equator, could expect 33% fewer cases per million inhabitants. Since the change in Earth’s angle towards the sun between equinox and solstice is about 23.5°, one could expect a difference in cases per million inhabitants of 64% between two hypothetical countries whose climates differ to a similar extent as two adjacent seasons. According to our results, countries are expected to see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter. However, our results do not imply that the disease will vanish during summer or will not affect countries close to the equator. Rather, the higher temperatures and more intense UV radiation in summer are likely to support public health measures to contain SARS-CoV-2.Simiao ChenKlaus PrettnerMichael KuhnPascal GeldsetzerChen WangTill BärnighausenDavid E. BloomNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-6 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Simiao Chen Klaus Prettner Michael Kuhn Pascal Geldsetzer Chen Wang Till Bärnighausen David E. Bloom Climate and the spread of COVID-19
description	Abstract Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress the logarithm of confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country’s distance from the equator, controlling for key confounding factors: air travel, vehicle concentration, urbanization, COVID-19 testing intensity, cell phone usage, income, old-age dependency ratio, and health expenditure. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 4.3% increase in cases per million inhabitants as of January 9, 2021 (p value < 0.001). Our results imply that a country, which is located 1000 km closer to the equator, could expect 33% fewer cases per million inhabitants. Since the change in Earth’s angle towards the sun between equinox and solstice is about 23.5°, one could expect a difference in cases per million inhabitants of 64% between two hypothetical countries whose climates differ to a similar extent as two adjacent seasons. According to our results, countries are expected to see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter. However, our results do not imply that the disease will vanish during summer or will not affect countries close to the equator. Rather, the higher temperatures and more intense UV radiation in summer are likely to support public health measures to contain SARS-CoV-2.
format	article
author	Simiao Chen Klaus Prettner Michael Kuhn Pascal Geldsetzer Chen Wang Till Bärnighausen David E. Bloom
author_facet	Simiao Chen Klaus Prettner Michael Kuhn Pascal Geldsetzer Chen Wang Till Bärnighausen David E. Bloom
author_sort	Simiao Chen
title	Climate and the spread of COVID-19
title_short	Climate and the spread of COVID-19
title_full	Climate and the spread of COVID-19
title_fullStr	Climate and the spread of COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed	Climate and the spread of COVID-19
title_sort	climate and the spread of covid-19
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/76cc06881e5742ed98873bcc357f1dd2
work_keys_str_mv	AT simiaochen climateandthespreadofcovid19 AT klausprettner climateandthespreadofcovid19 AT michaelkuhn climateandthespreadofcovid19 AT pascalgeldsetzer climateandthespreadofcovid19 AT chenwang climateandthespreadofcovid19 AT tillbarnighausen climateandthespreadofcovid19 AT davidebloom climateandthespreadofcovid19
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Climate and the spread of COVID-19

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