Trends of Academic Mobility in Russia: Statistical Analysis and Forecasting

Introduction. Currently, the competitiveness of universities is determined by their level of internationalization, which cannot be imagined without academic mobility. This is reflected in world university rankings. Russian universities do not occupy leading positions in these ratings; they are losin...

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Autores principales:	Tamara K. Rostovskaya, Olga A. Zolotareva
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	RU
Publicado:	National Research Mordova State University 2021
Materias:	higher education internationalization of higher education national project “education” forecast the number of foreign students Education L
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/7715cf3f1b4647a1aef45c6322d02379
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:7715cf3f1b4647a1aef45c6322d023792021-12-02T17:29:29ZTrends of Academic Mobility in Russia: Statistical Analysis and Forecasting10.15507/1991-9468.104.025.202103.421-4391991-94682308-1058https://doaj.org/article/7715cf3f1b4647a1aef45c6322d023792021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://edumag.mrsu.ru/index.php/en/articles-en/106-21-3/915-10-15507-1991-9468-103-025-202103-4https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9468https://doaj.org/toc/2308-1058Introduction. Currently, the competitiveness of universities is determined by their level of internationalization, which cannot be imagined without academic mobility. This is reflected in world university rankings. Russian universities do not occupy leading positions in these ratings; they are losing their role in the global educational space. Today, it is necessary to make prompt, constructive decisions that contribute to the growth of academic mobility, however, the development of measures in this area is not possible without prospective estimates of indicators characterizing both the development of the internationalization of higher education and growth quality of education. In this regard, the purpose of the presented article is to build predictive scenarios for academic mobility in Russia. Materials and Methods. The research employs statistical methods of time series analysis and forecasting. Prospective values of the number of foreign citizens from various countries studying at Russian universities were obtained on the basis of exponential functions and adaptive forecasting methods. The choice of the model with the best forecast values is based on a formal-logical analysis coupled with a comparison of the main characteristics of accuracy and quality. Results. The article presents predictive scenarios of academic mobility in Russia: regressive, conservative, moderately optimistic. The obtained forecast results determine the possibilities of increasing the competitiveness of Russian education and improving the position of Russian universities in the world rankings only if highquality digital education is formed and developed on the basis of an infrastructure that ensures high technical reliability. Discussion and Conclusion. The proposed methodology and assessments of the prospective values of the targets for the growth of university academic mobility not only substantiate the expansion of the possibilities of using adaptive forecasting methods, which determines the scientific contribution of the study conducted by the authors, but can also be taken into account when adjusting/updating the planned values of indicators introduced into state initiatives to stimulate internationalization of Russian higher education, which points to the high practical importance of this article.Tamara K. RostovskayaOlga A. ZolotarevaNational Research Mordova State Universityarticlehigher educationinternationalization of higher educationnational project “education”forecastthe number of foreign studentsEducationLRUИнтеграция образования, Vol 25, Iss 3, Pp 421-439 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	RU
topic	higher education internationalization of higher education national project “education” forecast the number of foreign students Education L
spellingShingle	higher education internationalization of higher education national project “education” forecast the number of foreign students Education L Tamara K. Rostovskaya Olga A. Zolotareva Trends of Academic Mobility in Russia: Statistical Analysis and Forecasting
description	Introduction. Currently, the competitiveness of universities is determined by their level of internationalization, which cannot be imagined without academic mobility. This is reflected in world university rankings. Russian universities do not occupy leading positions in these ratings; they are losing their role in the global educational space. Today, it is necessary to make prompt, constructive decisions that contribute to the growth of academic mobility, however, the development of measures in this area is not possible without prospective estimates of indicators characterizing both the development of the internationalization of higher education and growth quality of education. In this regard, the purpose of the presented article is to build predictive scenarios for academic mobility in Russia. Materials and Methods. The research employs statistical methods of time series analysis and forecasting. Prospective values of the number of foreign citizens from various countries studying at Russian universities were obtained on the basis of exponential functions and adaptive forecasting methods. The choice of the model with the best forecast values is based on a formal-logical analysis coupled with a comparison of the main characteristics of accuracy and quality. Results. The article presents predictive scenarios of academic mobility in Russia: regressive, conservative, moderately optimistic. The obtained forecast results determine the possibilities of increasing the competitiveness of Russian education and improving the position of Russian universities in the world rankings only if highquality digital education is formed and developed on the basis of an infrastructure that ensures high technical reliability. Discussion and Conclusion. The proposed methodology and assessments of the prospective values of the targets for the growth of university academic mobility not only substantiate the expansion of the possibilities of using adaptive forecasting methods, which determines the scientific contribution of the study conducted by the authors, but can also be taken into account when adjusting/updating the planned values of indicators introduced into state initiatives to stimulate internationalization of Russian higher education, which points to the high practical importance of this article.
format	article
author	Tamara K. Rostovskaya Olga A. Zolotareva
author_facet	Tamara K. Rostovskaya Olga A. Zolotareva
author_sort	Tamara K. Rostovskaya
title	Trends of Academic Mobility in Russia: Statistical Analysis and Forecasting
title_short	Trends of Academic Mobility in Russia: Statistical Analysis and Forecasting
title_full	Trends of Academic Mobility in Russia: Statistical Analysis and Forecasting
title_fullStr	Trends of Academic Mobility in Russia: Statistical Analysis and Forecasting
title_full_unstemmed	Trends of Academic Mobility in Russia: Statistical Analysis and Forecasting
title_sort	trends of academic mobility in russia: statistical analysis and forecasting
publisher	National Research Mordova State University
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/7715cf3f1b4647a1aef45c6322d02379
work_keys_str_mv	AT tamarakrostovskaya trendsofacademicmobilityinrussiastatisticalanalysisandforecasting AT olgaazolotareva trendsofacademicmobilityinrussiastatisticalanalysisandforecasting
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Trends of Academic Mobility in Russia: Statistical Analysis and Forecasting

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