Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.

Sexual contact patterns, both in their temporal and network structure, can influence the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STI). Most previous literature has focused on effects of network topology; few studies have addressed the role of temporal structure. We simulate disease spread using S...

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Autores principales:	Luis E C Rocha, Fredrik Liljeros, Petter Holme
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2011
Materias:	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/77af69691c534a8c833be094554b87f0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:77af69691c534a8c833be094554b87f02021-11-18T05:50:39ZSimulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.1553-734X1553-735810.1371/journal.pcbi.1001109https://doaj.org/article/77af69691c534a8c833be094554b87f02011-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/21445228/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-734Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-7358Sexual contact patterns, both in their temporal and network structure, can influence the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STI). Most previous literature has focused on effects of network topology; few studies have addressed the role of temporal structure. We simulate disease spread using SI and SIR models on an empirical temporal network of sexual contacts in high-end prostitution. We compare these results with several other approaches, including randomization of the data, classic mean-field approaches, and static network simulations. We observe that epidemic dynamics in this contact structure have well-defined, rather high epidemic thresholds. Temporal effects create a broad distribution of outbreak sizes, even if the per-contact transmission probability is taken to its hypothetical maximum of 100%. In general, we conclude that the temporal correlations of our network accelerate outbreaks, especially in the early phase of the epidemics, while the network topology (apart from the contact-rate distribution) slows them down. We find that the temporal correlations of sexual contacts can significantly change simulated outbreaks in a large empirical sexual network. Thus, temporal structures are needed alongside network topology to fully understand the spread of STIs. On a side note, our simulations further suggest that the specific type of commercial sex we investigate is not a reservoir of major importance for HIV.Luis E C RochaFredrik LiljerosPetter HolmePublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleBiology (General)QH301-705.5ENPLoS Computational Biology, Vol 7, Iss 3, p e1001109 (2011)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
spellingShingle	Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Luis E C Rocha Fredrik Liljeros Petter Holme Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.
description	Sexual contact patterns, both in their temporal and network structure, can influence the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STI). Most previous literature has focused on effects of network topology; few studies have addressed the role of temporal structure. We simulate disease spread using SI and SIR models on an empirical temporal network of sexual contacts in high-end prostitution. We compare these results with several other approaches, including randomization of the data, classic mean-field approaches, and static network simulations. We observe that epidemic dynamics in this contact structure have well-defined, rather high epidemic thresholds. Temporal effects create a broad distribution of outbreak sizes, even if the per-contact transmission probability is taken to its hypothetical maximum of 100%. In general, we conclude that the temporal correlations of our network accelerate outbreaks, especially in the early phase of the epidemics, while the network topology (apart from the contact-rate distribution) slows them down. We find that the temporal correlations of sexual contacts can significantly change simulated outbreaks in a large empirical sexual network. Thus, temporal structures are needed alongside network topology to fully understand the spread of STIs. On a side note, our simulations further suggest that the specific type of commercial sex we investigate is not a reservoir of major importance for HIV.
format	article
author	Luis E C Rocha Fredrik Liljeros Petter Holme
author_facet	Luis E C Rocha Fredrik Liljeros Petter Holme
author_sort	Luis E C Rocha
title	Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.
title_short	Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.
title_full	Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.
title_fullStr	Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.
title_full_unstemmed	Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.
title_sort	simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2011
url	https://doaj.org/article/77af69691c534a8c833be094554b87f0
work_keys_str_mv	AT luisecrocha simulatedepidemicsinanempiricalspatiotemporalnetworkof50185sexualcontacts AT fredrikliljeros simulatedepidemicsinanempiricalspatiotemporalnetworkof50185sexualcontacts AT petterholme simulatedepidemicsinanempiricalspatiotemporalnetworkof50185sexualcontacts
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Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.

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