Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations

Abstract The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provid...

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Autores principales:	Ying Tang, Julie Winkler, Shiyuan Zhong, Xindi Bian, Dana Doubler, Lejiang Yu, Claudia Walters
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/78338e7b8d4648079bca2335a0fd2b00
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:78338e7b8d4648079bca2335a0fd2b002021-12-02T15:05:41ZFuture changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations10.1038/s41598-017-05135-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/78338e7b8d4648079bca2335a0fd2b002017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05135-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provide a corridor for the springtime migration of birds and insects, enhance wind energy availability, and disperse air pollution. We assess future changes in GPLLJ frequency using an eight member ensemble of dynamically-downscaled climate simulations for the mid-21st century. Nocturnal GPLLJ frequency is projected to increase in the southern plains in spring and in the central plains in summer, whereas current climatological patterns persist into the future for daytime and cool season GPLLJs. The relationship between future GPLLJ frequency and the extent and strength of anticyclonic airflow over eastern North America varies with season. Most simulations project a westward shift of anticyclonic airflow in summer, but uncertainty is larger for spring with only half of the simulations suggesting a westward expansion. The choice of regional climate model and the driving lateral boundary conditions have a large influence on the projected future changes in GPLLJ frequency and highlight the importance of multi-model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the future GPLLJ climatology.Ying TangJulie WinklerShiyuan ZhongXindi BianDana DoublerLejiang YuClaudia WaltersNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Ying Tang Julie Winkler Shiyuan Zhong Xindi Bian Dana Doubler Lejiang Yu Claudia Walters Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations
description	Abstract The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provide a corridor for the springtime migration of birds and insects, enhance wind energy availability, and disperse air pollution. We assess future changes in GPLLJ frequency using an eight member ensemble of dynamically-downscaled climate simulations for the mid-21st century. Nocturnal GPLLJ frequency is projected to increase in the southern plains in spring and in the central plains in summer, whereas current climatological patterns persist into the future for daytime and cool season GPLLJs. The relationship between future GPLLJ frequency and the extent and strength of anticyclonic airflow over eastern North America varies with season. Most simulations project a westward shift of anticyclonic airflow in summer, but uncertainty is larger for spring with only half of the simulations suggesting a westward expansion. The choice of regional climate model and the driving lateral boundary conditions have a large influence on the projected future changes in GPLLJ frequency and highlight the importance of multi-model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the future GPLLJ climatology.
format	article
author	Ying Tang Julie Winkler Shiyuan Zhong Xindi Bian Dana Doubler Lejiang Yu Claudia Walters
author_facet	Ying Tang Julie Winkler Shiyuan Zhong Xindi Bian Dana Doubler Lejiang Yu Claudia Walters
author_sort	Ying Tang
title	Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations
title_short	Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations
title_full	Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations
title_fullStr	Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations
title_full_unstemmed	Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations
title_sort	future changes in the climatology of the great plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/78338e7b8d4648079bca2335a0fd2b00
work_keys_str_mv	AT yingtang futurechangesintheclimatologyofthegreatplainslowleveljetderivedfromfineresolutionmultimodelsimulations AT juliewinkler futurechangesintheclimatologyofthegreatplainslowleveljetderivedfromfineresolutionmultimodelsimulations AT shiyuanzhong futurechangesintheclimatologyofthegreatplainslowleveljetderivedfromfineresolutionmultimodelsimulations AT xindibian futurechangesintheclimatologyofthegreatplainslowleveljetderivedfromfineresolutionmultimodelsimulations AT danadoubler futurechangesintheclimatologyofthegreatplainslowleveljetderivedfromfineresolutionmultimodelsimulations AT lejiangyu futurechangesintheclimatologyofthegreatplainslowleveljetderivedfromfineresolutionmultimodelsimulations AT claudiawalters futurechangesintheclimatologyofthegreatplainslowleveljetderivedfromfineresolutionmultimodelsimulations
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Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations

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