Prediction of Dengue Incidence in the Northeast Malaysia Based on Weather Data Using the Generalized Additive Model

Introduction. Dengue, a vector-borne viral illness, shows worldwide widening spatial distribution beyond its point of origination, namely, the tropical belt. The persistent hyperendemicity in Malaysia has resulted in the formation of the dengue early warning system. However, weather variables are ye...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Afiqah Syamimi Masrani, Nik Rosmawati Nik Husain, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ahmad Syaarani Yasin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Hindawi Limited 2021
Materias:	Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/790970acd62946be97bfad1a2c85ee8a
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:790970acd62946be97bfad1a2c85ee8a
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:790970acd62946be97bfad1a2c85ee8a2021-11-08T02:35:52ZPrediction of Dengue Incidence in the Northeast Malaysia Based on Weather Data Using the Generalized Additive Model2314-614110.1155/2021/3540964https://doaj.org/article/790970acd62946be97bfad1a2c85ee8a2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/3540964https://doaj.org/toc/2314-6141Introduction. Dengue, a vector-borne viral illness, shows worldwide widening spatial distribution beyond its point of origination, namely, the tropical belt. The persistent hyperendemicity in Malaysia has resulted in the formation of the dengue early warning system. However, weather variables are yet to be fully utilized for prevention and control activities, particularly in east-coast peninsular Malaysia where limited studies have been conducted. We aim to provide a time-based estimate of possible dengue incidence increase following weather-related changes, thereby highlighting potential dengue outbreaks. Method. All serologically confirmed dengue patients in Kelantan, a northeastern state in Malaysia, registered in the eDengue system with an onset of disease from January 2016 to December 2018, were included in the study with the exclusion of duplicate entry. Using a generalized additive model, climate data collected from the Kota Bharu weather station (latitude 6°10′N, longitude 102°18′E) was analysed with dengue data. Result. A cyclical pattern of dengue cases was observed with annual peaks coinciding with the intermonsoon period. Our analysis reveals that maximum temperature, mean temperature, rainfall, and wind speed have a significant nonlinear effect on dengue cases in Kelantan. Our model can explain approximately 8.2% of dengue incidence variabilities. Conclusion. Weather variables affect nearly 10% of the dengue incidences in Northeast Malaysia, thereby making it a relevant variable to be included in a dengue early warning system. Interventions such as vector control activities targeting the intermonsoon period are recommended.Afiqah Syamimi MasraniNik Rosmawati Nik HusainKamarul Imran MusaAhmad Syaarani YasinHindawi LimitedarticleMedicineRENBioMed Research International, Vol 2021 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R
spellingShingle	Medicine R Afiqah Syamimi Masrani Nik Rosmawati Nik Husain Kamarul Imran Musa Ahmad Syaarani Yasin Prediction of Dengue Incidence in the Northeast Malaysia Based on Weather Data Using the Generalized Additive Model
description	Introduction. Dengue, a vector-borne viral illness, shows worldwide widening spatial distribution beyond its point of origination, namely, the tropical belt. The persistent hyperendemicity in Malaysia has resulted in the formation of the dengue early warning system. However, weather variables are yet to be fully utilized for prevention and control activities, particularly in east-coast peninsular Malaysia where limited studies have been conducted. We aim to provide a time-based estimate of possible dengue incidence increase following weather-related changes, thereby highlighting potential dengue outbreaks. Method. All serologically confirmed dengue patients in Kelantan, a northeastern state in Malaysia, registered in the eDengue system with an onset of disease from January 2016 to December 2018, were included in the study with the exclusion of duplicate entry. Using a generalized additive model, climate data collected from the Kota Bharu weather station (latitude 6°10′N, longitude 102°18′E) was analysed with dengue data. Result. A cyclical pattern of dengue cases was observed with annual peaks coinciding with the intermonsoon period. Our analysis reveals that maximum temperature, mean temperature, rainfall, and wind speed have a significant nonlinear effect on dengue cases in Kelantan. Our model can explain approximately 8.2% of dengue incidence variabilities. Conclusion. Weather variables affect nearly 10% of the dengue incidences in Northeast Malaysia, thereby making it a relevant variable to be included in a dengue early warning system. Interventions such as vector control activities targeting the intermonsoon period are recommended.
format	article
author	Afiqah Syamimi Masrani Nik Rosmawati Nik Husain Kamarul Imran Musa Ahmad Syaarani Yasin
author_facet	Afiqah Syamimi Masrani Nik Rosmawati Nik Husain Kamarul Imran Musa Ahmad Syaarani Yasin
author_sort	Afiqah Syamimi Masrani
title	Prediction of Dengue Incidence in the Northeast Malaysia Based on Weather Data Using the Generalized Additive Model
title_short	Prediction of Dengue Incidence in the Northeast Malaysia Based on Weather Data Using the Generalized Additive Model
title_full	Prediction of Dengue Incidence in the Northeast Malaysia Based on Weather Data Using the Generalized Additive Model
title_fullStr	Prediction of Dengue Incidence in the Northeast Malaysia Based on Weather Data Using the Generalized Additive Model
title_full_unstemmed	Prediction of Dengue Incidence in the Northeast Malaysia Based on Weather Data Using the Generalized Additive Model
title_sort	prediction of dengue incidence in the northeast malaysia based on weather data using the generalized additive model
publisher	Hindawi Limited
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/790970acd62946be97bfad1a2c85ee8a
work_keys_str_mv	AT afiqahsyamimimasrani predictionofdengueincidenceinthenortheastmalaysiabasedonweatherdatausingthegeneralizedadditivemodel AT nikrosmawatinikhusain predictionofdengueincidenceinthenortheastmalaysiabasedonweatherdatausingthegeneralizedadditivemodel AT kamarulimranmusa predictionofdengueincidenceinthenortheastmalaysiabasedonweatherdatausingthegeneralizedadditivemodel AT ahmadsyaaraniyasin predictionofdengueincidenceinthenortheastmalaysiabasedonweatherdatausingthegeneralizedadditivemodel
_version_	1718443197789634560

Prediction of Dengue Incidence in the Northeast Malaysia Based on Weather Data Using the Generalized Additive Model

Ejemplares similares