Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections.

Crop yields are sensitive to extreme weather events. Improving the understanding of the mechanisms and the drivers of the projection uncertainties can help to improve decisions. Previous studies have provided important insights, but often sample only a small subset of potentially important uncertain...

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Autores principales:	Haochen Ye, Robert E Nicholas, Samantha Roth, Klaus Keller
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/796098cdcb09407cb534c119eace383c
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:796098cdcb09407cb534c119eace383c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:796098cdcb09407cb534c119eace383c2021-12-02T20:12:51ZConsidering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0259180https://doaj.org/article/796098cdcb09407cb534c119eace383c2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259180https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Crop yields are sensitive to extreme weather events. Improving the understanding of the mechanisms and the drivers of the projection uncertainties can help to improve decisions. Previous studies have provided important insights, but often sample only a small subset of potentially important uncertainties. Here we expand on a previous statistical modeling approach by refining the analyses of two uncertainty sources. Specifically, we assess the effects of uncertainties surrounding crop-yield model parameters and climate forcings on projected crop yield. We focus on maize yield projections in the eastern U.S.in this century. We quantify how considering more uncertainties expands the lower tail of yield projections. We characterized the relative importance of each uncertainty source and show that the uncertainty surrounding yield model parameters is the main driver of yield projection uncertainty.Haochen YeRobert E NicholasSamantha RothKlaus KellerPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 11, p e0259180 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Haochen Ye Robert E Nicholas Samantha Roth Klaus Keller Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections.
description	Crop yields are sensitive to extreme weather events. Improving the understanding of the mechanisms and the drivers of the projection uncertainties can help to improve decisions. Previous studies have provided important insights, but often sample only a small subset of potentially important uncertainties. Here we expand on a previous statistical modeling approach by refining the analyses of two uncertainty sources. Specifically, we assess the effects of uncertainties surrounding crop-yield model parameters and climate forcings on projected crop yield. We focus on maize yield projections in the eastern U.S.in this century. We quantify how considering more uncertainties expands the lower tail of yield projections. We characterized the relative importance of each uncertainty source and show that the uncertainty surrounding yield model parameters is the main driver of yield projection uncertainty.
format	article
author	Haochen Ye Robert E Nicholas Samantha Roth Klaus Keller
author_facet	Haochen Ye Robert E Nicholas Samantha Roth Klaus Keller
author_sort	Haochen Ye
title	Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections.
title_short	Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections.
title_full	Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections.
title_fullStr	Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections.
title_full_unstemmed	Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections.
title_sort	considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/796098cdcb09407cb534c119eace383c
work_keys_str_mv	AT haochenye consideringuncertaintiesexpandsthelowertailofmaizeyieldprojections AT robertenicholas consideringuncertaintiesexpandsthelowertailofmaizeyieldprojections AT samantharoth consideringuncertaintiesexpandsthelowertailofmaizeyieldprojections AT klauskeller consideringuncertaintiesexpandsthelowertailofmaizeyieldprojections
_version_	1718374832551231488

Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections.

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