Development of a system dynamics model for dioxin flow and its application to the energy sector

Dioxin pollution has been problematic in Taiwan. Although the government has established emission standards and emission inventory to control dioxin pollution, such efforts only apply to pollution emissions; no attempt has been made to understand the flow of dioxins in different environmental media....

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Autores principales:	Chao-Heng Tseng, Ling-Ling Chen, Shang-Ming Su
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	System dynamics model STELLA Dioxin flow ARCoB model Energy sector Co-benefit Science (General) Q1-390 Social sciences (General) H1-99
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/79802f9a411a4f7d8e545702d6c4289c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:79802f9a411a4f7d8e545702d6c4289c2021-12-02T05:02:50ZDevelopment of a system dynamics model for dioxin flow and its application to the energy sector2405-844010.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08361https://doaj.org/article/79802f9a411a4f7d8e545702d6c4289c2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844021024646https://doaj.org/toc/2405-8440Dioxin pollution has been problematic in Taiwan. Although the government has established emission standards and emission inventory to control dioxin pollution, such efforts only apply to pollution emissions; no attempt has been made to understand the flow of dioxins in different environmental media. In this study, the STELLA software was used to model the flow pattern of dioxins in various media. This model and the RAIDAR model established by the Canadian Environmental Model Research Center were used to simulate dioxin flow in Taiwan, and their results were compared with the measured values. The accuracies of the RAIDAR and STELLA models were 63.92% and 49.78%, respectively. This shows that the simulation with the STELLA model provided results closer to the measured values and that the error was less than ten times that of the RAIDAR model, indicating that the proposed model is predictive. In addition, we used the results of a system dynamics model for dioxin flow and an air resource co-benefits (ARCoB) model to apply the obtained results to the energy sector to quantify the co-benefits of reducing dioxin, greenhouse gas, and air pollutant emissions on the basis of the policy target for the year 2030. The total co-benefits of natural gas and renewable energy (RE) scenarios were US$9.63 billion and US$12.57 billion, respectively; the benefit-cost ratios were 2.89 and 20.67, respectively. The development of an RE policy as an alternative to a coal-fired power generation policy will contribute to the best co-benefits of integrated reductions and will also contribute to human health.Chao-Heng TsengLing-Ling ChenShang-Ming SuElsevierarticleSystem dynamics modelSTELLADioxin flowARCoB modelEnergy sectorCo-benefitScience (General)Q1-390Social sciences (General)H1-99ENHeliyon, Vol 7, Iss 11, Pp e08361- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	System dynamics model STELLA Dioxin flow ARCoB model Energy sector Co-benefit Science (General) Q1-390 Social sciences (General) H1-99
spellingShingle	System dynamics model STELLA Dioxin flow ARCoB model Energy sector Co-benefit Science (General) Q1-390 Social sciences (General) H1-99 Chao-Heng Tseng Ling-Ling Chen Shang-Ming Su Development of a system dynamics model for dioxin flow and its application to the energy sector
description	Dioxin pollution has been problematic in Taiwan. Although the government has established emission standards and emission inventory to control dioxin pollution, such efforts only apply to pollution emissions; no attempt has been made to understand the flow of dioxins in different environmental media. In this study, the STELLA software was used to model the flow pattern of dioxins in various media. This model and the RAIDAR model established by the Canadian Environmental Model Research Center were used to simulate dioxin flow in Taiwan, and their results were compared with the measured values. The accuracies of the RAIDAR and STELLA models were 63.92% and 49.78%, respectively. This shows that the simulation with the STELLA model provided results closer to the measured values and that the error was less than ten times that of the RAIDAR model, indicating that the proposed model is predictive. In addition, we used the results of a system dynamics model for dioxin flow and an air resource co-benefits (ARCoB) model to apply the obtained results to the energy sector to quantify the co-benefits of reducing dioxin, greenhouse gas, and air pollutant emissions on the basis of the policy target for the year 2030. The total co-benefits of natural gas and renewable energy (RE) scenarios were US$9.63 billion and US$12.57 billion, respectively; the benefit-cost ratios were 2.89 and 20.67, respectively. The development of an RE policy as an alternative to a coal-fired power generation policy will contribute to the best co-benefits of integrated reductions and will also contribute to human health.
format	article
author	Chao-Heng Tseng Ling-Ling Chen Shang-Ming Su
author_facet	Chao-Heng Tseng Ling-Ling Chen Shang-Ming Su
author_sort	Chao-Heng Tseng
title	Development of a system dynamics model for dioxin flow and its application to the energy sector
title_short	Development of a system dynamics model for dioxin flow and its application to the energy sector
title_full	Development of a system dynamics model for dioxin flow and its application to the energy sector
title_fullStr	Development of a system dynamics model for dioxin flow and its application to the energy sector
title_full_unstemmed	Development of a system dynamics model for dioxin flow and its application to the energy sector
title_sort	development of a system dynamics model for dioxin flow and its application to the energy sector
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/79802f9a411a4f7d8e545702d6c4289c
work_keys_str_mv	AT chaohengtseng developmentofasystemdynamicsmodelfordioxinflowanditsapplicationtotheenergysector AT linglingchen developmentofasystemdynamicsmodelfordioxinflowanditsapplicationtotheenergysector AT shangmingsu developmentofasystemdynamicsmodelfordioxinflowanditsapplicationtotheenergysector
_version_	1718400718109409280

Development of a system dynamics model for dioxin flow and its application to the energy sector

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